Cardiff vs Wrexham: model prediction
ChampionshipOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Wrexham
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Wrexham at 43.1%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.3% and it missed (2 goals). We called Yes at 56.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Wrexham: 43% is the model's line for this Championship meeting on 17 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Our number sits above the market's 33% for Wrexham. The gap itself is information. • Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. • Form guide over the last six: Cardiff W0 D3 L3, Wrexham W2 D1 L3. • Fatigue may matter, with Wrexham 364 days shorter on recovery than Cardiff. Cardiff are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7))).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
30.6%-10.2%
26.3%+0.1%
43.1%+10.1%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.9% | Over 7.5 | 52.9% | Over 8.5 | 40.3% | Over 9.5 | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cardiff | 59.6% | Most: Wrexham | 28.1% | ||||
| Cardiff Over 4.2 | 47.9% | Wrexham Over 4.2 | 25.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 67.2% | Over 3.5 | 45.6% | Over 4.5 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cardiff | 33.7% | Most: Wrexham | 44.1% | ||
| Cardiff Over 1.8 | 47.7% | Wrexham Over 1.8 | 55.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Cardiff clean sheet | 21.8% |
|---|---|
| Wrexham clean sheet | 28.6% |
| Cardiff win to nil | 14.9% |
| Wrexham win to nil | 21.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 30.6% | draw | 26.4% | away | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 56.9% | 12 | 73.7% | X2 | 69.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 41.5% | away | 58.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 56.3% | no | 43.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 21.9% | away | 28.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 15.0% | away | 21.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 17.4% | home_by_2 | 8.8% | home_by_3plus | 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.4% | away_by_2 | 13.1% | away_by_3plus | 8.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.9% | 0-1 | 8.9% | 0-2 | 7.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.7% | 0-4 | 1.4% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 7.2% | 1-1 | 12.5% | 1-2 | 9.0% |
| 1-3 | 4.6% | 1-4 | 1.8% | 1-5 | 0.5% |
| 2-0 | 4.9% | 2-1 | 7.4% | 2-2 | 5.6% |
| 2-3 | 2.9% | 2-4 | 1.1% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 2.0% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.1% | under_0.5 | 6.9% | over_1.5 | 76.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.1% | over_2.5 | 52.3% | under_2.5 | 47.7% |
| over_3.5 | 30.2% | under_3.5 | 69.8% | over_4.5 | 14.8% |
| under_4.5 | 85.2% | over_5.5 | 6.3% | under_5.5 | 93.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 71.3% | under_0.5 | 28.7% | over_1.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.6% | over_2.5 | 13.1% | under_2.5 | 86.9% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 78.1% | under_0.5 | 21.9% | over_1.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.0% | over_2.5 | 19.7% | under_2.5 | 80.3% |
most
| home | 30.6% | draw | 26.4% | away | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.4% | away_+2.5 | 95.6% | home_-1.5 | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.8% | home_-0.5 | 30.6% | away_+0.5 | 69.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 56.9% | away_-0.5 | 43.1% | home_+1.5 | 78.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.7% | home_+2.5 | 91.4% | away_-2.5 | 8.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.9% | exact_1 | 16.2% | exact_2 | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.4% | exact_5 | 8.5% |
| exact_6 | 3.9% | exact_7plus | 2.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.0% | draw | 40.0% | away | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.8% | under_0.5 | 27.2% | over_1.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.7% | over_2.5 | 14.3% | under_2.5 | 85.7% |
btts
| yes | 22.8% | no | 77.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 27.2% | exact_1 | 35.4% | exact_2 | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.0% | exact_4plus | 4.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.0% | draw | 35.3% | away | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.8% | under_0.5 | 20.2% | over_1.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.6% | over_2.5 | 21.6% | under_2.5 | 78.4% |
btts
| yes | 30.3% | no | 69.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 20.3% | H/D | 5.2% | H/A | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.4% | D/D | 14.1% | D/A | 13.5% |
| A/H | 2.4% | A/D | 5.4% | A/A | 24.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.3% | under_7.5 | 21.7% | over_8.5 | 67.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.2% | over_9.5 | 56.2% | under_9.5 | 43.8% |
| over_10.5 | 44.5% | under_10.5 | 55.5% | over_11.5 | 33.6% |
| under_11.5 | 66.4% | over_12.5 | 24.3% | under_12.5 | 75.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.9% | under_3.5 | 20.1% | over_4.5 | 66.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 33.7% | over_5.5 | 51.6% | under_5.5 | 48.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.9% | under_3.5 | 39.1% | over_4.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.4% | over_5.5 | 28.6% | under_5.5 | 71.4% |
most
| home | 60.2% | draw | 10.0% | away | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.2% | away_+3.5 | 70.8% | home_-1.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.5% | home_-0.5 | 60.2% | away_+0.5 | 39.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.2% | away_-0.5 | 29.8% | home_+1.5 | 78.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.2% | home_+3.5 | 91.0% | away_-3.5 | 9.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 59.3% | under_22.5 | 40.7% | over_24.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 53.4% | over_26.5 | 34.6% | under_26.5 | 65.4% |
| over_28.5 | 24.1% | under_28.5 | 75.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.5% | under_10.5 | 25.5% | over_12.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.3% | over_14.5 | 42.4% | under_14.5 | 57.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 45.7% | under_10.5 | 54.3% | over_12.5 | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 71.7% | over_14.5 | 15.6% | under_14.5 | 84.4% |
most
| home | 68.1% | draw | 5.6% | away | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 43.0% | away_+4.5 | 57.0% | home_-2.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 44.2% | home_-0.5 | 68.1% | away_+0.5 | 31.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.7% | away_-0.5 | 26.4% | home_+2.5 | 83.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 16.9% | home_+4.5 | 90.0% | away_-4.5 | 10.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.9% | under_6.5 | 34.1% | over_7.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.1% | over_8.5 | 40.3% | under_8.5 | 59.7% |
| over_9.5 | 29.1% | under_9.5 | 70.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.0% | under_3.5 | 35.0% | over_4.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.1% | over_5.5 | 32.5% | under_5.5 | 67.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 42.2% | under_3.5 | 57.8% | over_4.5 | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 74.6% | over_5.5 | 13.8% | under_5.5 | 86.2% |
most
| home | 59.6% | draw | 12.3% | away | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 33.7% | away_+2.5 | 66.3% | home_-0.5 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.4% | home_+0.5 | 71.9% | away_-0.5 | 28.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.5% | away_-2.5 | 10.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 67.2% | under_2.5 | 32.8% | over_3.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 54.4% | over_4.5 | 26.8% | under_4.5 | 73.2% |
| over_5.5 | 13.8% | under_5.5 | 86.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 47.7% | under_1.5 | 52.3% | over_2.5 | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 78.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 55.4% | under_1.5 | 44.6% | over_2.5 | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 71.5% |
most
| home | 33.7% | draw | 22.2% | away | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.4% | away_+1.5 | 83.6% | home_-0.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.3% | home_+0.5 | 55.9% | away_-0.5 | 44.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 76.0% | away_-1.5 | 24.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 48.9% | under_20.5 | 51.1% | over_22.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 66.5% | over_24.5 | 20.8% | under_24.5 | 79.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 50.7% | under_9.5 | 49.3% | over_11.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 71.2% | over_13.5 | 13.7% | under_13.5 | 86.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 62.2% | under_9.5 | 37.8% | over_11.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 60.0% | over_13.5 | 21.7% | under_13.5 | 78.3% |
most
| home | 37.7% | draw | 8.0% | away | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 17.6% | away_+3.5 | 82.4% | home_-0.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.3% | home_+2.5 | 62.0% | away_-2.5 | 38.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 4.6% | no | 95.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.3% | no | 96.8% |
|---|
away
| yes | 1.4% | no | 98.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Cardiff predictions · Wrexham predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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