La Liga
Ath Bilbao vs 
Ath Madrid Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 57.9% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 85.1% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 57.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.7% for over 2.5 to 23.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.9%. Head to head on cards, Ath Madrid are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 19.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.7% | 23.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 38.9% | 61.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 23.3% | 76.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.6%
29.3%
63.9%
37.8%
Card handicap
| Ath Bilbao line | Ath Bilbao | Ath Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.1% | 81.9% |
| -0.5 | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| +0.5 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| +1.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 38.2% | 61.8% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ath Bilbao vs Ath Madrid. The model leans toward Ath Madrid for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
57.9%Over 3.5 cards14.9%Any red card55.6%Ath Bilbao over 1.5 cards63.9%Ath Madrid over 1.5 cards52.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Ath Bilbao over 1.5 cards sits at 55.6% and Ath Madrid at 63.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.9% (Ath Bilbao 7.1%, Ath Madrid 8.4%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Ath Bilbao vs Ath Madrid?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 57.9% for Ath Bilbao vs Ath Madrid.
Will there be a red card in Ath Bilbao vs Ath Madrid?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ath Bilbao vs Ath Madrid?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ath Madrid to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.