Primeira Liga
Arouca vs Estrela Amadora Both Teams to Score
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Both teams to score · Yes at 54.2%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 53.0% for over 2.5 and 77.4% for at least two goals. Arouca have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Both Teams to Score
Recent scoring & conceding (per game)
1.4
1.0
Each team to score
By half
This season (2026/27)
42.9%Arouca BTTS rate42.9%Arouca clean sheets
1.4Arouca goals scored per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
2
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5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
54.2%Both Teams to Score53.0%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 53.0% for three or more goals and 77.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Arouca favoured at 53.2%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Arouca to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Estrela Amadora?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 54.2% for Arouca vs Estrela Amadora.
Will Arouca score against Estrela Amadora?
The model rates Arouca to score at 82.6% and Estrela Amadora to score at 65.0%.
How often have Arouca seen both teams score recently?
Arouca have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Both Teams to Score accuracy
How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 26,677 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls
Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Both Teams to Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
