Segunda DivisiónAndorra vs Eibar Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 75.2% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 86.4% and it missed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 75.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 88.6% for over 2.5 to 40.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.1%. Head to head on cards, Eibar are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 18.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 88.6% | 11.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 40.6% | 59.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
70.7%
45.0%
74.3%
49.5%
Card handicap
| Andorra line | Andorra | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.3% | 77.7% |
| -0.5 | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| +0.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| +1.5 | 72.7% | 27.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 58.7% | 41.3% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Andorra vs Eibar. The model leans toward Eibar for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
75.2%Over 3.5 cards13.6%Any red card70.7%Andorra over 1.5 cards74.3%Eibar over 1.5 cards71.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Andorra over 1.5 cards sits at 70.7% and Eibar at 74.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.6% (Andorra 7.4%, Eibar 6.6%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Andorra vs Eibar?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 75.2% for Andorra vs Eibar.
Will there be a red card in Andorra vs Eibar?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Andorra vs Eibar?
Before kickoff, the model rated Eibar to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 18.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.