Pro League
Anderlecht vs 
Genk Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 58.4% and it missed (20 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 68.0% and it missed (6 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 58.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.7% for over 22.5 to 35.3% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.6%. Between the two sides, Anderlecht are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.7%, with a level count at 5.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 35.3% | 64.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
77.9%
63.6%
48.1%
57.1%
39.8%
25.2%
Shot handicap
| Anderlecht line | Anderlecht | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| -2.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| -0.5 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| +0.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 44.6% | 55.4% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Anderlecht.
In-depth analysis
58.4%Over 24.5 shots63.6%Anderlecht over 12.5 shots39.8%Genk over 12.5 shots68.0%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Anderlecht over 12.5 shots sits at 63.6% and Genk at 39.8%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Anderlecht vs Genk?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 58.4% for Anderlecht vs Genk.
Which team will have more shots in Anderlecht vs Genk?
Before kickoff, the model rated Anderlecht to take more shots at 63.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.