Segunda División
Almeria vs Eldense Cards
Result
Settled, final score 3-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 74.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 88.1% for over 2.5 to 39.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.1%. Head to head on cards, Eldense are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 18.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 88.1% | 11.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
68.0%
41.6%
75.4%
51.1%
Card handicap
| Almeria line | Almeria | Eldense |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| -0.5 | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| +0.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| +1.5 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 82.8% | 17.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 59.4% | 40.6% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Almeria vs Eldense. It tips Eldense for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
74.4%Over 3.5 cards21.3%Any red card68.0%Almeria over 1.5 cards75.4%Eldense over 1.5 cards72.1%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Almeria over 1.5 cards sits at 68.0% and Eldense at 75.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.3% (Almeria 10.7%, Eldense 11.9%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Almeria vs Eldense?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 74.4% for Almeria vs Eldense.
Will there be a red card in Almeria vs Eldense?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Almeria vs Eldense?
Before kickoff, the model rated Eldense to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 18.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.