La Liga
Alaves vs 
Getafe Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 75.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. For context, Alaves are favoured at 45.8%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Alaves vs Getafe. It tips Getafe for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
For context, Alaves are favoured at 45.8%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Alaves to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Alaves 1 · 1 draws · Getafe 3 · 1.6 goals/game.
FAQ
How many cards in Alaves vs Getafe?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 75.6% for Alaves vs Getafe.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | cards_over_3.5 |
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.