Espanol vs Levante: model prediction
La Liga
EspanolLLWWD
Sun, 16 Aug 202608:00UK
LevanteLWWWL
Model’s top convictions
77%
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Espanol or draw
62%
Over 8.5 corners
No bet
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model’s best bet
EspanolWin probability
42.7%
Top 3 convictions
Over 1.5 goals76.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Espanol or draw69.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Over 8.5 corners61.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.62
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Espanol at 43% for 16 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Espanol, 3 draws and 1 for Levante at 3.0 goals per match. • The run in: Espanol arrive W2 D2 L2, Levante W3 D1 L2. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.
Value & higher-risk angles
High risk
Over 10.5 corners40.5%@ 2.47
Over 11.5 corners31.2%@ 3.21
Levante win30.8%@ 3.25
Medium risk
Draw or Levante57.3%@ 1.75
Both teams to score55.8%@ 1.79
Over 2.5 goals51.7%@ 1.93
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.96
1-0 correct score9.1%@ 11.00
2-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.10
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
Espanol
42.7%
Draw
26.5%
Levante
30.8%
Model
Goals markets
★ StrongestOver 1.576.5%
Strong chance
Over 2.551.7%
Good chance
BTTS · Yes55.8%
Good chance
Corners markets
Over 8.561.6%
Strong chance
Over 9.550.8%
Good chance
Over 10.540.5%
Toss-up
Over 11.531.2%
Toss-up
Most cornersEspanol 58.4% · Levante 31.2%
Totals line guide
0.5·1.576.5%2.551.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.5%
Discipline: NO_ODDS.
Form & head-to-head
EspanolLLWWD
LevanteLWWWL
Last 5 meetings: Espanol 1 · 3 draws · Levante 1 · 3.0 goals/game.
2026-04-27Espanol 0-0 Levante
2026-01-11Levante 1-1 Espanol
2022-03-12Levante 1-1 Espanol
2021-12-11Espanol 4-3 Levante
2020-06-20Espanol 1-3 Levante
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
EspanolLevanteLeague position#11 of 20#18 of 20
Record W-D-L12-10-1611-9-18
Current streakD1L1
Points per game1.211.11
Record, home vs away7-5-74-4-11
PPG, home vs away1.370.84
Goals scored per game1.131.24
Goals conceded per game1.451.61
Scored, home vs away1.111.11
Conceded, home vs away1.261.74
1st half goals per game0.340.50
2nd half goals per game0.790.74
Corners won per game4.74.3
Cards per game2.52.3
Fouls per game13.812.3
Red cards this season55
Shots on target per game4.23.9
xG for per game1.381.57
xG against per game1.651.75
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%44.7%
BTTS rate
57.9%50.0%
Clean sheets
26.3%23.7%
Rates this season:EspanolLevante
League averages this season: 2.69 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Carlos EspíLevante · key player
To score35.8%
@ 2.79
1+ on target61.8%
@ 1.62
2+ shots66.4%
@ 1.51
Shots/90 3.86SoT/90 1.63Goals/90 0.75
Etta EyongLevante · in form
To score18.3%
@ 5.46
1+ on target50.3%
@ 1.99
2+ shots42.0%
@ 2.38
Shots/90 2.77SoT/90 1.35Goals/90 0.39
Roger BruguéLevante · in form
To score5.2%
@ 19.23
1+ on target37.6%
@ 2.66
2+ shots43.3%
@ 2.31
Shots/90 2.5SoT/90 0.8Goals/90 0.09
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Espanol win2.34
Draw3.77
Levante win3.26
Both teams to score1.79
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.93
Over 3.5 goals3.38
Espanol most2.34
Levante most3.26
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.55
Over 9.5 corners1.91
Over 10.5 corners2.47
Espanol most1.71
Levante most3.20
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.19
Over 3.5 cards1.47
Over 4.5 cards2.01
Over 5.5 cards3.03
Espanol most2.67
Levante most2.28
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.28
Over 7.5 SoT1.49
Over 8.5 SoT1.82
Over 9.5 SoT2.34
Espanol most1.77
Levante most3.18
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.97
Over 26.5 shots2.60
Over 28.5 shots3.65
Espanol most1.53
Levante most3.47
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.22
Over 22.5 fouls1.41
Over 24.5 fouls1.73
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 78.3% | Over 7.5 | 67.2% | Over 8.5 | 54.9% | Over 9.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Espanol | 56.6% | Most: Levante | 31.4% | ||||
| Espanol Over 4.2 | 56.0% | Levante Over 4.2 | 37.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.8% | Over 3.5 | 68.0% | Over 4.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Espanol | 37.5% | Most: Levante | 43.9% | ||
| Espanol Over 1.8 | 64.9% | Levante Over 1.8 | 69.0% |
Levante: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Espí | 3.86 | 1.63 | 0.75 | 61.8% | 66.4% | 35.8% |
| Etta Eyong | 2.77 | 1.35 | 0.39 | 50.3% | 42.0% | 18.3% |
| Roger Brugué | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.09 | 37.6% | 43.3% | 5.2% |
| Paco Cortés | 2.37 | 0.79 | 0 | 28.4% | 26.4% | 0.0% |
| Víctor García | 1.61 | 0.68 | 0.17 | 31.8% | 23.0% | 9.1% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 42.8% | draw | 26.5% | away | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 69.3% | 12 | 73.5% | X2 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 58.2% | away | 41.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.8% | no | 44.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.0% | away | 22.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 22.0% | away | 15.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.4% | home_by_2 | 13.0% | home_by_3plus | 8.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.5% | away_by_2 | 8.8% | away_by_3plus | 4.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.0% | 0-1 | 7.4% | 0-2 | 4.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.0% | 0-4 | 0.6% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | 1-1 | 12.6% | 1-2 | 7.4% |
| 1-3 | 3.1% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 2-1 | 9.0% | 2-2 | 5.6% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.7% | 3-1 | 4.5% | 3-2 | 2.8% |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.4% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 1.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.0% | under_0.5 | 7.0% | over_1.5 | 76.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.5% | over_2.5 | 51.7% | under_2.5 | 48.3% |
| over_3.5 | 29.6% | under_3.5 | 70.4% | over_4.5 | 14.4% |
| under_4.5 | 85.6% | over_5.5 | 6.1% | under_5.5 | 93.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.8% | under_0.5 | 22.2% | over_1.5 | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.6% | over_2.5 | 19.3% | under_2.5 | 80.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.0% | under_0.5 | 29.0% | over_1.5 | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.8% | over_2.5 | 13.0% | under_2.5 | 87.0% |
most
| home | 42.8% | draw | 26.5% | away | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.4% | away_+2.5 | 91.6% | home_-1.5 | 21.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 78.6% | home_-0.5 | 42.8% | away_+0.5 | 57.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.3% | away_-0.5 | 30.7% | home_+1.5 | 86.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 13.2% | home_+2.5 | 95.6% | away_-2.5 | 4.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.0% | exact_1 | 16.5% | exact_2 | 24.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 15.2% | exact_5 | 8.4% |
| exact_6 | 3.8% | exact_7plus | 2.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.9% | draw | 48.5% | away | 22.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 60.4% | under_0.5 | 39.6% | over_1.5 | 23.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 76.3% | over_2.5 | 6.7% | under_2.5 | 93.3% |
btts
| yes | 13.6% | no | 86.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 39.6% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 17.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.3% | exact_4plus | 1.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.1% | draw | 33.7% | away | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.9% | under_0.5 | 18.1% | over_1.5 | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.1% | over_2.5 | 24.5% | under_2.5 | 75.5% |
btts
| yes | 32.5% | no | 67.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.3% | H/D | 4.6% | H/A | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 19.0% | D/D | 16.3% | D/A | 13.2% |
| A/H | 2.9% | A/D | 4.9% | A/A | 14.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.5% | under_7.5 | 24.5% | over_8.5 | 64.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 35.7% | over_9.5 | 52.3% | under_9.5 | 47.7% |
| over_10.5 | 40.5% | under_10.5 | 59.5% | over_11.5 | 29.9% |
| under_11.5 | 70.1% | over_12.5 | 21.0% | under_12.5 | 79.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.2% | under_3.5 | 22.8% | over_4.5 | 62.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 37.1% | over_5.5 | 47.8% | under_5.5 | 52.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.5% | under_3.5 | 40.5% | over_4.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.9% | over_5.5 | 27.4% | under_5.5 | 72.6% |
most
| home | 58.5% | draw | 10.2% | away | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.5% | away_+3.5 | 72.5% | home_-1.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.3% | home_-0.5 | 58.5% | away_+0.5 | 41.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.8% | away_-0.5 | 31.3% | home_+1.5 | 77.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.3% | home_+3.5 | 90.4% | away_-3.5 | 9.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 63.3% | under_22.5 | 36.7% | over_24.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 49.3% | over_26.5 | 38.4% | under_26.5 | 61.6% |
| over_28.5 | 27.4% | under_28.5 | 72.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 75.5% | under_10.5 | 24.5% | over_12.5 | 59.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 40.3% | over_14.5 | 43.2% | under_14.5 | 56.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.1% | under_10.5 | 48.9% | over_12.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.0% | over_14.5 | 19.1% | under_14.5 | 80.9% |
most
| home | 65.4% | draw | 5.7% | away | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 40.3% | away_+4.5 | 59.7% | home_-2.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.0% | home_-0.5 | 65.4% | away_+0.5 | 34.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.2% | away_-0.5 | 28.8% | home_+2.5 | 81.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.9% | home_+4.5 | 88.5% | away_-4.5 | 11.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 78.3% | under_6.5 | 21.7% | over_7.5 | 67.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 32.8% | over_8.5 | 54.9% | under_8.5 | 45.1% |
| over_9.5 | 42.7% | under_9.5 | 57.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.4% | under_3.5 | 27.6% | over_4.5 | 56.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.0% | over_5.5 | 39.8% | under_5.5 | 60.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 55.9% | under_3.5 | 44.1% | over_4.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.4% | over_5.5 | 22.9% | under_5.5 | 77.1% |
most
| home | 56.6% | draw | 12.0% | away | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.1% | away_+2.5 | 67.9% | home_-0.5 | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.4% | home_+0.5 | 68.6% | away_-0.5 | 31.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.8% | away_-2.5 | 13.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.8% | under_2.5 | 16.2% | over_3.5 | 68.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 32.0% | over_4.5 | 49.9% | under_4.5 | 50.1% |
| over_5.5 | 33.0% | under_5.5 | 67.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 65.0% | under_1.5 | 35.1% | over_2.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 69.0% | under_1.5 | 31.0% | over_2.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 56.4% |
most
| home | 37.5% | draw | 18.6% | away | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.6% | away_+1.5 | 78.4% | home_-0.5 | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.5% | home_+0.5 | 56.1% | away_-0.5 | 43.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.2% | away_-1.5 | 26.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 81.9% | under_20.5 | 18.1% | over_22.5 | 70.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 29.2% | over_24.5 | 57.8% | under_24.5 | 42.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 80.6% | under_9.5 | 19.4% | over_11.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.4% | over_13.5 | 44.7% | under_13.5 | 55.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 77.4% | under_9.5 | 22.6% | over_11.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 40.8% | over_13.5 | 40.1% | under_13.5 | 59.9% |
most
| home | 49.8% | draw | 6.8% | away | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.2% | away_+3.5 | 69.8% | home_-0.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.2% | home_+2.5 | 69.5% | away_-2.5 | 30.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 22.7% | no | 77.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 17.3% | no | 82.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.5% | no | 93.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).
More: Espanol predictions · Levante predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.