Derby vs Swansea: model prediction
ChampionshipOver 1.5 goals
Derby or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Derby at 42.8%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.6% and it missed (3 goals). We called Yes at 52.4% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Derby, that gap is the story." The model leans Derby at 43% when Derby host Swansea in the Championship on 29 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Bookmakers see it the same way, 43% on Derby, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Derby against W3 D2 L1 for Swansea. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Derby, 0 draws and 3 for Swansea, averaging 2.4 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.008 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
42.8%+0.0%
27.5%-0.9%
29.6%+0.8%
value_gap +0.008 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Derby 2 · 0 draws · Swansea 3 · 2.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.88 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 79%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 67.6% | Over 7.5 | 54.8% | Over 8.5 | 42.1% | Over 9.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Derby | 54.0% | Most: Swansea | 33.2% | ||||
| Derby Over 4.2 | 45.4% | Swansea Over 4.2 | 30.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 74.4% | Over 3.5 | 54.3% | Over 4.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Derby | 40.2% | Most: Swansea | 38.8% | ||
| Derby Over 1.8 | 58.3% | Swansea Over 1.8 | 57.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Derby clean sheet | 31.8% |
|---|---|
| Swansea clean sheet | 24.0% |
| Derby win to nil | 23.5% |
| Swansea win to nil | 15.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 42.8% | draw | 27.5% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 70.4% | 12 | 72.5% | X2 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 59.1% | away | 40.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.4% | no | 47.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.9% | away | 24.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 23.6% | away | 15.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.0% | home_by_2 | 13.0% | home_by_3plus | 7.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.5% | away_by_2 | 8.4% | away_by_3plus | 3.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 0-1 | 8.1% | 0-2 | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.9% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 1-1 | 13.1% | 1-2 | 7.1% |
| 1-3 | 2.7% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 2-1 | 8.9% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.7% | 3-1 | 4.2% | 3-2 | 2.4% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.3% | 4-1 | 1.5% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.7% | under_0.5 | 8.3% | over_1.5 | 73.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.7% | over_2.5 | 47.4% | under_2.5 | 52.6% |
| over_3.5 | 25.7% | under_3.5 | 74.3% | over_4.5 | 11.8% |
| under_4.5 | 88.2% | over_5.5 | 4.7% | under_5.5 | 95.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 75.9% | under_0.5 | 24.1% | over_1.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.3% | over_2.5 | 17.3% | under_2.5 | 82.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 68.1% | under_0.5 | 31.9% | over_1.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.3% | over_2.5 | 10.9% | under_2.5 | 89.1% |
most
| home | 42.8% | draw | 27.5% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.9% | away_+2.5 | 92.1% | home_-1.5 | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 79.1% | home_-0.5 | 42.8% | away_+0.5 | 57.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.4% | away_-0.5 | 29.6% | home_+1.5 | 87.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 12.1% | home_+2.5 | 96.2% | away_-2.5 | 3.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.3% | exact_1 | 18.4% | exact_2 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 13.9% | exact_5 | 7.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.9% | draw | 42.3% | away | 19.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.3% | under_0.5 | 31.7% | over_1.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.1% | over_2.5 | 11.0% | under_2.5 | 89.0% |
btts
| yes | 18.0% | no | 82.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.7% | exact_1 | 36.4% | exact_2 | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.0% | exact_4plus | 2.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.1% | draw | 37.6% | away | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.5% | under_0.5 | 23.5% | over_1.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.6% | over_2.5 | 17.8% | under_2.5 | 82.2% |
btts
| yes | 26.5% | no | 73.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 28.7% | H/D | 6.5% | H/A | 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.2% | D/D | 15.9% | D/A | 13.3% |
| A/H | 1.6% | A/D | 3.7% | A/A | 14.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.3% | under_7.5 | 22.7% | over_8.5 | 66.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.4% | over_9.5 | 54.9% | under_9.5 | 45.1% |
| over_10.5 | 43.1% | under_10.5 | 56.9% | over_11.5 | 32.4% |
| under_11.5 | 67.7% | over_12.5 | 23.2% | under_12.5 | 76.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.0% | under_3.5 | 22.0% | over_4.5 | 63.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.2% | over_5.5 | 48.7% | under_5.5 | 51.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.2% | under_3.5 | 37.8% | over_4.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.0% | over_5.5 | 29.9% | under_5.5 | 70.1% |
most
| home | 57.4% | draw | 10.3% | away | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.7% | away_+3.5 | 73.3% | home_-1.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.4% | home_-0.5 | 57.4% | away_+0.5 | 42.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.7% | away_-0.5 | 32.3% | home_+1.5 | 76.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.2% | home_+3.5 | 89.9% | away_-3.5 | 10.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.5% | under_22.5 | 41.5% | over_24.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.2% | over_26.5 | 33.9% | under_26.5 | 66.1% |
| over_28.5 | 23.6% | under_28.5 | 76.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.2% | under_10.5 | 29.8% | over_12.5 | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.6% | over_14.5 | 37.0% | under_14.5 | 63.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.8% | under_10.5 | 49.2% | over_12.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.2% | over_14.5 | 19.1% | under_14.5 | 80.9% |
most
| home | 61.2% | draw | 6.1% | away | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.9% | away_+4.5 | 64.1% | home_-2.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.6% | home_-0.5 | 61.2% | away_+0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.3% | away_-0.5 | 32.7% | home_+2.5 | 78.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.0% | home_+4.5 | 86.4% | away_-4.5 | 13.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 67.6% | under_6.5 | 32.4% | over_7.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.2% | over_8.5 | 42.1% | under_8.5 | 57.9% |
| over_9.5 | 30.7% | under_9.5 | 69.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 62.8% | under_3.5 | 37.2% | over_4.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.6% | over_5.5 | 30.1% | under_5.5 | 69.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.1% | under_3.5 | 51.9% | over_4.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.5% | over_5.5 | 17.6% | under_5.5 | 82.4% |
most
| home | 54.0% | draw | 12.8% | away | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 28.9% | away_+2.5 | 71.1% | home_-0.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.0% | home_+0.5 | 66.8% | away_-0.5 | 33.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.3% | away_-2.5 | 13.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 74.4% | under_2.5 | 25.6% | over_3.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 45.7% | over_4.5 | 34.8% | under_4.5 | 65.2% |
| over_5.5 | 19.7% | under_5.5 | 80.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 58.3% | under_1.5 | 41.7% | over_2.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 68.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 57.3% | under_1.5 | 42.8% | over_2.5 | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.8% |
most
| home | 40.2% | draw | 21.0% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 22.0% | away_+1.5 | 78.1% | home_-0.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.8% | home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 79.1% | away_-1.5 | 20.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 65.9% | under_20.5 | 34.1% | over_22.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 49.4% | over_24.5 | 35.7% | under_24.5 | 64.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 75.2% | under_9.5 | 24.8% | over_11.5 | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 45.0% | over_13.5 | 34.7% | under_13.5 | 65.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 60.1% | under_9.5 | 39.9% | over_11.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 62.3% | over_13.5 | 19.9% | under_13.5 | 80.1% |
most
| home | 58.4% | draw | 7.4% | away | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 35.4% | away_+3.5 | 64.6% | home_-0.5 | 58.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 41.6% | home_+2.5 | 78.7% | away_-2.5 | 21.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 5.2% | no | 94.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.1% | no | 96.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 1.2% | no | 98.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Derby predictions · Swansea predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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