Arouca vs Maritimo prediction & probabilities (2026-08-29)

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Arouca vs Maritimo: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga
Arouca

WWWWL

Full time2-1Sat, 29 Aug 202615:30UK
Maritimo

WLWWD

Model’s top convictions

79%

Arouca or draw

78%

Over 1.5 goals

55%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time2 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Arouca 2-1 Maritimo
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score
3 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Arouca at 55.0%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 54.4% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 54.7% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AroucaWin probability
55.0%
Top 3 convictions

Arouca or draw79.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Over 1.5 goals78.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Over 8.5 corners55.3%Good chancePays @ 1.81

Model read

▾

Few Primeira Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Arouca carry a 55% win probability against Maritimo on 29 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 45% for Arouca. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Maritimo carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Arouca, 2 draws and 2 for Maritimo, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Arouca against W3 D1 L2 for Maritimo. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.2%@ 2.21
Draw or Maritimo45.0%@ 2.22
Over 10.5 corners35.8%@ 2.79
Medium risk

Both teams to score54.7%@ 1.83
Over 2.5 goals54.4%@ 1.84
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.4%@ 8.78
1-0 correct score9.9%@ 10.12
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.16

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Arouca

55.0%+10.2%

Draw

24.0%-4.3%

Maritimo

21.0%-5.9%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.4%

High probability

Over 2.554.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.3%

Good chance

Over 9.545.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.527.6%

Low chance

Most cornersArouca47.3%Maritimo42.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.555.1%

Good chance

Over 24.543.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.531.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.3%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.4%2.554.4%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.578.4%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AroucaWWWWL
MaritimoWLWWD

Last 5 meetings: Arouca 1 · 2 draws · Maritimo 2 · 2.8 goals/game.

2023-04-08Arouca 1-0 Maritimo
2022-10-23Maritimo 1-1 Arouca
2022-02-14Arouca 0-3 Maritimo
2021-09-13Maritimo 2-2 Arouca
2017-03-19Maritimo 3-1 Arouca

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AroucaMaritimo
League position#5 of 18#3 of 18
Record W-D-L2-0-12-1-0
Current streakL1D1
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.79 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Arouca win2.101.82
Draw3.254.17
Maritimo win3.404.76
Over 2.5 goals2.081.84
Under 2.5 goals1.732.19

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Arouca win1.82
Draw4.16
Maritimo win4.76
Both teams to score1.83

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.84
Over 3.5 goals3.12
Arouca most1.82
Maritimo most4.76

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.45
Over 8.5 corners1.74
Over 9.5 corners2.17
Over 10.5 corners2.84
Arouca most2.11
Maritimo most2.37

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.15
Over 3.5 cards1.37
Over 4.5 cards1.82
Over 5.5 cards2.67
Arouca most2.31
Maritimo most2.61

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.46
Over 7.5 SoT1.79
Over 8.5 SoT2.32
Over 9.5 SoT3.18
Arouca most1.96
Maritimo most2.78

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.82
Over 24.5 shots2.33
Over 26.5 shots3.14
Over 28.5 shots4.48
Arouca most1.79
Maritimo most2.63

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.21
Over 22.5 fouls1.38
Over 24.5 fouls1.66
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 68.7% Over 7.5 55.9% Over 8.5 43.0% Over 9.5 31.4%
Most: Arouca 51.0% Most: Maritimo 36.0%
Arouca Over 4.2 44.0% Maritimo Over 4.2 33.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 87.1% Over 3.5 72.8% Over 4.5 55.0%
Most: Arouca 43.2% Most: Maritimo 38.3%
Arouca Over 1.8 72.2% Maritimo Over 1.8 69.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Arouca clean sheet 34.9%
Maritimo clean sheet 16.3%
Arouca win to nil 28.6%
Maritimo win to nil 10.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 55.0% draw 24.0% away 21.0%
double_chance
1X 79.0% 12 76.0% X2 45.0%
dnb
home 72.4% away 27.6%
btts
yes 54.7% no 45.3%
clean_sheet
home 35.3% away 16.3%
win_to_nil
home 29.0% away 10.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.4% home_by_2 17.0% home_by_3plus 14.6%
away_by_1 13.2% away_by_2 5.6% away_by_3plus 2.2%
correct_score
0-0 6.3% 0-1 5.5% 0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.9% 1-1 11.4% 1-2 5.7%
1-3 2.0% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.5% 2-1 9.8% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.7% 3-1 6.0% 3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.6% 4-1 2.7% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.0% 5-1 1.0% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.7% under_0.5 6.3% over_1.5 78.4%
under_1.5 21.6% over_2.5 54.4% under_2.5 45.6%
over_3.5 32.1% under_3.5 67.9% over_4.5 16.2%
under_4.5 83.8% over_5.5 7.0% under_5.5 93.0%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 83.7% under_0.5 16.3% over_1.5 54.2%
under_1.5 45.8% over_2.5 27.4% under_2.5 72.6%
team_away
over_0.5 64.7% under_0.5 35.3% over_1.5 27.9%
under_1.5 72.1% over_2.5 8.8% under_2.5 91.2%
most
home 55.0% draw 24.0% away 21.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 14.6% away_+2.5 85.4% home_-1.5 31.6%
away_+1.5 68.4% home_-0.5 55.0% away_+0.5 45.0%
home_+0.5 79.0% away_-0.5 21.0% home_+1.5 92.2%
away_-1.5 7.8% home_+2.5 97.8% away_-2.5 2.2%
total_exact
exact_0 6.3% exact_1 15.3% exact_2 24.0%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.9% exact_5 9.1%
exact_6 4.4% exact_7plus 2.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.0% draw 38.7% away 21.3%
total
over_0.5 73.7% under_0.5 26.3% over_1.5 38.5%
under_1.5 61.5% over_2.5 15.1% under_2.5 84.9%
btts
yes 22.5% no 77.5%
total_exact
exact_0 26.3% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 23.4%
exact_3 10.4% exact_4plus 4.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.8% draw 36.3% away 38.9%
total
over_0.5 77.8% under_0.5 22.2% over_1.5 44.4%
under_1.5 55.6% over_2.5 19.2% under_2.5 80.8%
btts
yes 27.3% no 72.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 28.2% H/D 7.8% H/A 4.0%
D/H 9.6% D/D 14.0% D/A 15.1%
A/H 1.1% A/D 3.2% A/A 16.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.0% under_7.5 31.1% over_8.5 57.5%
under_8.5 42.5% over_9.5 46.0% under_9.5 54.0%
over_10.5 35.3% under_10.5 64.8% over_11.5 25.9%
under_11.5 74.1% over_12.5 18.3% under_12.5 81.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.7% under_3.5 34.3% over_4.5 50.2%
under_4.5 49.8% over_5.5 36.1% under_5.5 63.9%
team_away
over_3.5 62.1% under_3.5 37.9% over_4.5 46.3%
under_4.5 53.8% over_5.5 32.3% under_5.5 67.7%
most
home 47.4% draw 10.4% away 42.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.1% away_+3.5 79.9% home_-1.5 37.2%
away_+1.5 62.8% home_-0.5 47.4% away_+0.5 52.6%
home_+0.5 57.8% away_-0.5 42.2% home_+1.5 67.7%
away_-1.5 32.4% home_+3.5 83.5% away_-3.5 16.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 55.1% under_22.5 44.9% over_24.5 43.0%
under_24.5 57.0% over_26.5 31.8% under_26.5 68.2%
over_28.5 22.3% under_28.5 77.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 64.2% under_10.5 35.8% over_12.5 47.5%
under_12.5 52.5% over_14.5 32.3% under_14.5 67.7%
team_away
over_10.5 51.9% under_10.5 48.1% over_12.5 34.8%
under_12.5 65.2% over_14.5 21.3% under_14.5 78.7%
most
home 55.9% draw 6.1% away 38.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.7% away_+4.5 68.3% home_-2.5 43.5%
away_+2.5 56.5% home_-0.5 55.9% away_+0.5 44.1%
home_+0.5 62.0% away_-0.5 38.0% home_+2.5 73.1%
away_-2.5 26.9% home_+4.5 82.3% away_-4.5 17.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 68.7% under_6.5 31.3% over_7.5 55.9%
under_7.5 44.1% over_8.5 43.1% under_8.5 57.0%
over_9.5 31.4% under_9.5 68.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.7% under_3.5 38.3% over_4.5 44.0%
under_4.5 56.0% over_5.5 28.7% under_5.5 71.3%
team_away
over_3.5 51.2% under_3.5 48.8% over_4.5 33.3%
under_4.5 66.7% over_5.5 19.7% under_5.5 80.4%
most
home 51.0% draw 13.0% away 36.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.3% away_+2.5 73.8% home_-0.5 51.0%
away_+0.5 49.0% home_+0.5 64.0% away_-0.5 36.0%
home_+2.5 84.6% away_-2.5 15.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 87.1% under_2.5 12.9% over_3.5 72.8%
under_3.5 27.2% over_4.5 55.0% under_4.5 45.0%
over_5.5 37.5% under_5.5 62.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 72.2% under_1.5 27.8% over_2.5 46.7%
under_2.5 53.3%
team_away
over_1.5 69.3% under_1.5 30.8% over_2.5 43.1%
under_2.5 56.9%
most
home 43.2% draw 18.4% away 38.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 26.3% away_+1.5 73.7% home_-0.5 43.2%
away_+0.5 56.8% home_+0.5 61.7% away_-0.5 38.4%
home_+1.5 77.6% away_-1.5 22.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 82.9% under_20.5 17.1% over_22.5 72.6%
under_22.5 27.4% over_24.5 60.4% under_24.5 39.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 81.1% under_9.5 18.9% over_11.5 65.0%
under_11.5 35.0% over_13.5 47.0% under_13.5 53.0%
team_away
over_9.5 77.9% under_9.5 22.1% over_11.5 60.6%
under_11.5 39.4% over_13.5 42.3% under_13.5 57.7%
most
home 50.1% draw 6.5% away 43.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.2% away_+3.5 68.8% home_-0.5 50.1%
away_+0.5 50.0% home_+2.5 68.9% away_-2.5 31.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 23.1% no 76.9%
home
yes 13.9% no 86.1%
away
yes 10.8% no 89.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Arouca predictions · Maritimo predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Primeira LigaAroucaMaritimoTrack record