Lyon vs Le Havre: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Ligue 1

Lyon

WWLLW

Full time1-1Sat, 29 Aug 202619:45UK26°C · Cloudy

Le Havre

DDLWL

Model’s top convictions

82%

Lyon or draw

76%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time1 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Lyon 1-1 Le Havre

✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score

1 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Lyon at 57.7%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 51.0% and it missed (2 goals). We called Yes at 51.6% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

LyonWin probability

57.7%

Top 3 convictions

Lyon or draw82.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.21

Over 1.5 goals75.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.32

Over 8.5 corners61.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Lyon at 58% against Le Havre, Ligue 1, 29 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Lyon higher (67%) than our model does. • No strong lean on goals (51% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Lyon, 1 draws and 1 for Le Havre at 3.0 goals per match. • Recent form reads W4 D0 L2 for Lyon against W1 D3 L2 for Le Havre. Georges Mikautadze drives the home shot volume, 1.9 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Le Havre42.3%@ 2.37

Over 10.5 corners40.1%@ 2.49

Over 11.5 corners30.9%@ 3.24

Medium risk

Both teams to score51.6%@ 1.94

Over 2.5 goals51.0%@ 1.96

Over 9.5 corners50.4%@ 1.98

Random finds

1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.53

1-0 correct score11.1%@ 9.04

2-0 correct score10.2%@ 9.83

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lyon

57.7%-9.3%

Draw

24.7%+4.3%

Le Havre

17.6%+5.0%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes51.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.4%

Good chance

Over 10.540.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.9%

Toss-up

Most cornersLyon59.5%Le Havre30.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.9%2.551.0%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.575.9%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LyonWWLLW

Le HavreDDLWL

Last 5 meetings: Lyon 3 · 1 draws · Le Havre 1 · 3.0 goals/game.

2026-03-15Le Havre 0-0 Lyon

2025-12-14Lyon 1-0 Le Havre

2025-03-16Lyon 4-2 Le Havre

2024-10-20Le Havre 0-4 Lyon

2024-01-14Le Havre 3-1 Lyon

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Lyon

Le Havre

League position#4 of 18#14 of 18

Record W-D-L1-0-00-0-1

Current streakW1L1

Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Georges MikautadzeLyon · key player

To score29.6%

@ 3.38

1+ on target57.4%

@ 1.74

2+ shots54.4%

@ 1.84

Shots/90 3.95SoT/90 1.85Goals/90 0.76

KokaLe Havre · key player

To score17.0%

@ 5.88

1+ on target43.1%

@ 2.32

2+ shots35.6%

@ 2.81

Shots/90 2.09SoT/90 0.94Goals/90 0.31

EndrickLyon · in form

To score26.8%

@ 3.73

1+ on target79.0%

@ 1.27

2+ shots81.0%

@ 1.23

Shots/90 3.53SoT/90 1.8Goals/90 0.36

Mbwana SamattaLe Havre · in form

To score7.4%

@ 13.51

1+ on target42.6%

@ 2.35

2+ shots46.1%

@ 2.17

Shots/90 2.44SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.12

Alexandre LacazetteLyon · in form

To score40.2%

@ 2.49

1+ on target72.0%

@ 1.39

2+ shots60.3%

@ 1.66

Shots/90 2.65SoT/90 1.66Goals/90 0.67

Issa SoumaréLe Havre · in form

To score18.8%

@ 5.32

1+ on target52.5%

@ 1.90

2+ shots57.2%

@ 1.75

Shots/90 2.22SoT/90 0.86Goals/90 0.24

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Lyon win1.441.73

Draw4.504.05

Le Havre win7.005.69

Over 2.5 goals1.731.96

Under 2.5 goals2.102.04

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lyon win1.81

Draw4.06

Le Havre win4.99

Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08

Over 1.5 goals1.32

Over 2.5 goals1.96

Over 3.5 goals3.46

Lyon most1.81

Le Havre most4.99

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33

Over 8.5 corners1.57

Over 9.5 corners1.93

Over 10.5 corners2.49

Lyon most1.68

Le Havre most3.30

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.33

Over 3.5 cards1.81

Over 4.5 cards2.80

Over 5.5 cards4.90

Lyon most3.31

Le Havre most2.02

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.34

Over 7.5 SoT1.60

Over 8.5 SoT1.99

Over 9.5 SoT2.61

Lyon most1.80

Le Havre most3.10

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.61

Over 24.5 shots2.02

Over 26.5 shots2.68

Over 28.5 shots3.77

Lyon most1.59

Le Havre most3.21

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.22

Over 22.5 fouls1.41

Over 24.5 fouls1.73

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	74.4%	Over 7.5	62.6%	Over 8.5	50.2%	Over 9.5	38.2%
Most: Lyon	55.6%	Most: Le Havre	32.3%
Lyon Over 4.2	52.0%	Le Havre Over 4.2	35.0%

Cards

Over 2.5	75.1%	Over 3.5	55.3%	Over 4.5	35.7%
Most: Lyon	30.2%	Most: Le Havre	49.5%
Lyon Over 1.8	51.1%	Le Havre Over 1.8	64.9%

Lyon: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Georges Mikautadze	3.95	1.85	0.76	57.4%	54.4%	29.6%
Endrick	3.53	1.8	0.36	79.0%	81.0%	26.8%
Alexandre Lacazette	2.65	1.66	0.67	72.0%	60.3%	40.2%
Ernest Nuamah	2.72	1.22	0.28	41.8%	34.0%	11.7%
Pavel Sulc	2.54	0.98	0.58	46.7%	48.6%	31.1%

Le Havre: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Koka	2.09	0.94	0.31	43.1%	35.6%	17.0%
Mbwana Samatta	2.44	0.87	0.12	42.6%	46.1%	7.4%
Issa Soumaré	2.22	0.86	0.24	52.5%	57.2%	18.8%
Daler Kuzyaev	0.78	0.58	0.19	23.8%	5.2%	8.5%
Fodé Doucouré	1.42	0.57	0.21	26.6%	18.1%	10.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lyon clean sheet	37.9%
Le Havre clean sheet	17.4%
Lyon win to nil	30.7%
Le Havre win to nil	10.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	55.3%	draw	24.6%	away	20.1%

double_chance

1X	79.9%	12	75.4%	X2	44.7%

dnb

home	73.4%	away	26.6%

btts

yes	51.6%	no	48.4%

clean_sheet

home	38.2%	away	17.4%

win_to_nil

home	31.0%	away	10.2%

winning_margin

home_by_1	24.0%	home_by_2	17.2%	home_by_3plus	14.1%
away_by_1	13.0%	away_by_2	5.2%	away_by_3plus	1.9%

correct_score

0-0	7.2%	0-1	5.8%	0-2	3.1%
0-3	1.0%	0-4	0.2%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	11.1%	1-1	11.7%	1-2	5.4%
1-3	1.7%	1-4	0.4%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	10.2%	2-1	9.8%	2-2	4.7%
2-3	1.5%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	5.9%	3-1	5.7%	3-2	2.7%
3-3	0.9%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	2.6%	4-1	2.5%	4-2	1.2%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.9%	5-1	0.9%	5-2	0.4%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.0%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	11.7%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	92.8%	under_0.5	7.2%	over_1.5	75.9%
under_1.5	24.1%	over_2.5	51.0%	under_2.5	49.0%
over_3.5	28.9%	under_3.5	71.1%	over_4.5	13.9%
under_4.5	86.1%	over_5.5	5.8%	under_5.5	94.2%

odd_even

odd	48.7%	even	51.3%

team_home

over_0.5	82.6%	under_0.5	17.4%	over_1.5	52.2%
under_1.5	47.8%	over_2.5	25.6%	under_2.5	74.4%

team_away

over_0.5	61.8%	under_0.5	38.2%	over_1.5	25.1%
under_1.5	74.9%	over_2.5	7.4%	under_2.5	92.6%

most

home	55.3%	draw	24.6%	away	20.1%

handicap

home_-2.5	14.1%	away_+2.5	85.9%	home_-1.5	31.3%
away_+1.5	68.7%	home_-0.5	55.3%	away_+0.5	44.7%
home_+0.5	79.9%	away_-0.5	20.1%	home_+1.5	92.9%
away_-1.5	7.1%	home_+2.5	98.1%	away_-2.5	1.9%

total_exact

exact_0	7.2%	exact_1	16.9%	exact_2	25.0%
exact_3	22.1%	exact_4	15.0%	exact_5	8.1%
exact_6	3.7%	exact_7plus	2.1%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	43.4%	draw	39.7%	away	16.9%

total

over_0.5	70.9%	under_0.5	29.1%	over_1.5	35.0%
under_1.5	65.0%	over_2.5	12.8%	under_2.5	87.2%

btts

yes	18.8%	no	81.3%

total_exact

exact_0	29.1%	exact_1	35.9%	exact_2	22.2%
exact_3	9.1%	exact_4plus	3.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	44.5%	draw	36.9%	away	18.6%

total

over_0.5	75.2%	under_0.5	24.8%	over_1.5	40.7%
under_1.5	59.4%	over_2.5	16.5%	under_2.5	83.5%

btts

yes	22.9%	no	77.1%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	37.6%	H/D	4.6%	H/A	1.2%
D/H	17.7%	D/D	14.7%	D/A	7.4%
A/H	2.4%	A/D	4.2%	A/A	10.3%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	75.0%	under_7.5	25.1%	over_8.5	63.8%
under_8.5	36.2%	over_9.5	51.8%	under_9.5	48.2%
over_10.5	40.1%	under_10.5	59.9%	over_11.5	29.6%
under_11.5	70.4%	over_12.5	20.8%	under_12.5	79.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	77.4%	under_3.5	22.6%	over_4.5	63.2%
under_4.5	36.8%	over_5.5	48.3%	under_5.5	51.7%

team_away

over_3.5	58.2%	under_3.5	41.8%	over_4.5	40.8%
under_4.5	59.2%	over_5.5	26.4%	under_5.5	73.7%

most

home	59.6%	draw	10.1%	away	30.3%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.5%	away_+3.5	71.5%	home_-1.5	48.8%
away_+1.5	51.2%	home_-0.5	59.6%	away_+0.5	40.4%
home_+0.5	69.7%	away_-0.5	30.3%	home_+1.5	78.5%
away_-1.5	21.5%	home_+3.5	90.9%	away_-3.5	9.1%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	62.2%	under_22.5	37.8%	over_24.5	49.6%
under_24.5	50.4%	over_26.5	37.4%	under_26.5	62.6%
over_28.5	26.5%	under_28.5	73.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	73.4%	under_10.5	26.6%	over_12.5	57.2%
under_12.5	42.8%	over_14.5	40.7%	under_14.5	59.3%

team_away

over_10.5	52.3%	under_10.5	47.8%	over_12.5	34.1%
under_12.5	65.9%	over_14.5	20.0%	under_14.5	80.0%

most

home	62.9%	draw	5.9%	away	31.2%

handicap

home_-4.5	37.7%	away_+4.5	62.3%	home_-2.5	50.3%
away_+2.5	49.7%	home_-0.5	62.9%	away_+0.5	37.1%
home_+0.5	68.8%	away_-0.5	31.2%	home_+2.5	79.2%
away_-2.5	20.8%	home_+4.5	87.2%	away_-4.5	12.8%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	74.4%	under_6.5	25.6%	over_7.5	62.6%
under_7.5	37.4%	over_8.5	50.1%	under_8.5	49.9%
over_9.5	38.3%	under_9.5	61.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	68.7%	under_3.5	31.3%	over_4.5	51.9%
under_4.5	48.1%	over_5.5	36.2%	under_5.5	63.8%

team_away

over_3.5	52.9%	under_3.5	47.1%	over_4.5	35.0%
under_4.5	65.0%	over_5.5	21.1%	under_5.5	78.9%

most

home	55.6%	draw	12.2%	away	32.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	31.1%	away_+2.5	68.9%	home_-0.5	55.6%
away_+0.5	44.4%	home_+0.5	67.7%	away_-0.5	32.3%
home_+2.5	86.3%	away_-2.5	13.7%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	75.1%	under_2.5	24.9%	over_3.5	55.3%
under_3.5	44.8%	over_4.5	35.7%	under_4.5	64.3%
over_5.5	20.4%	under_5.5	79.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	51.1%	under_1.5	48.9%	over_2.5	24.7%
under_2.5	75.3%

team_away

over_1.5	64.9%	under_1.5	35.1%	over_2.5	38.1%
under_2.5	61.9%

most

home	30.2%	draw	20.3%	away	49.5%

handicap

home_-1.5	14.8%	away_+1.5	85.2%	home_-0.5	30.2%
away_+0.5	69.8%	home_+0.5	50.5%	away_-0.5	49.5%
home_+1.5	70.4%	away_-1.5	29.6%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	82.3%	under_20.5	17.8%	over_22.5	71.1%
under_22.5	28.9%	over_24.5	58.0%	under_24.5	42.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	79.1%	under_9.5	20.9%	over_11.5	61.2%
under_11.5	38.8%	over_13.5	41.9%	under_13.5	58.1%

team_away

over_9.5	79.8%	under_9.5	20.3%	over_11.5	62.1%
under_11.5	37.9%	over_13.5	42.9%	under_13.5	57.1%

most

home	45.9%	draw	6.9%	away	47.2%

handicap

home_-3.5	26.6%	away_+3.5	73.4%	home_-0.5	45.9%
away_+0.5	54.2%	home_+2.5	66.2%	away_-2.5	33.8%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	25.9%	no	74.2%

home

yes	11.5%	no	88.5%

away

yes	16.2%	no	83.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lyon predictions · Le Havre predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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