Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
71.4% |
Over 7.5 |
59.6% |
Over 8.5 |
47.6% |
Over 9.5 |
36.3% |
| Most: Spurs |
51.0% |
Most: Newcastle |
36.8% |
| Spurs Over 4.2 |
46.9% |
Newcastle Over 4.2 |
36.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
76.3% |
Over 3.5 |
56.8% |
Over 4.5 |
37.2% |
| Most: Spurs |
37.2% |
Most: Newcastle |
42.2% |
| Spurs Over 1.8 |
57.7% |
Newcastle Over 1.8 |
61.2% |
Newcastle: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Alexander Isak |
3.2 |
1.5 |
0.78 |
74.7% |
79.1% |
51.1% |
| William Osula |
2.77 |
1.24 |
0.77 |
7.9% |
1.5% |
5.0% |
| Harvey Barnes |
2.92 |
0.99 |
0.39 |
44.8% |
52.4% |
20.9% |
| Anthony Gordon |
2.25 |
0.79 |
0.24 |
47.0% |
54.0% |
17.6% |
| Jacob Murphy |
1.91 |
0.63 |
0.25 |
34.1% |
36.1% |
15.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Spurs clean sheet |
19.7% |
| Newcastle clean sheet |
27.3% |
| Spurs win to nil |
13.7% |
| Newcastle win to nil |
21.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
30.0% |
draw |
25.5% |
away |
44.6% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
55.4% |
12 |
74.5% |
X2 |
70.0% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
16.9% |
home_by_2 |
8.6% |
home_by_3plus |
4.5% |
| away_by_1 |
21.3% |
away_by_2 |
13.6% |
away_by_3plus |
9.7% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
6.0% |
0-1 |
8.2% |
0-2 |
7.1% |
| 0-3 |
3.9% |
0-4 |
1.6% |
0-5 |
0.5% |
| 1-0 |
6.5% |
1-1 |
11.9% |
1-2 |
9.2% |
| 1-3 |
5.0% |
1-4 |
2.0% |
1-5 |
0.7% |
| 2-0 |
4.5% |
2-1 |
7.4% |
2-2 |
6.0% |
| 2-3 |
3.2% |
2-4 |
1.3% |
2-5 |
0.4% |
| 3-0 |
2.0% |
3-1 |
3.2% |
3-2 |
2.6% |
| 3-3 |
1.4% |
3-4 |
0.6% |
3-5 |
0.2% |
| 4-0 |
0.6% |
4-1 |
1.0% |
4-2 |
0.8% |
| 4-3 |
0.4% |
4-4 |
0.2% |
4-5 |
0.1% |
| 5-0 |
0.2% |
5-1 |
0.3% |
5-2 |
0.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.1% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
11.9% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
94.0% |
under_0.5 |
6.0% |
over_1.5 |
79.3% |
| under_1.5 |
20.7% |
over_2.5 |
55.7% |
under_2.5 |
44.3% |
| over_3.5 |
33.4% |
under_3.5 |
66.6% |
over_4.5 |
17.1% |
| under_4.5 |
83.0% |
over_5.5 |
7.6% |
under_5.5 |
92.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
72.5% |
under_0.5 |
27.5% |
over_1.5 |
37.0% |
| under_1.5 |
63.0% |
over_2.5 |
14.1% |
under_2.5 |
85.9% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
80.2% |
under_0.5 |
19.8% |
over_1.5 |
48.2% |
| under_1.5 |
51.8% |
over_2.5 |
22.2% |
under_2.5 |
77.8% |
|
most
| home |
30.0% |
draw |
25.5% |
away |
44.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
4.5% |
away_+2.5 |
95.6% |
home_-1.5 |
13.1% |
| away_+1.5 |
86.9% |
home_-0.5 |
30.0% |
away_+0.5 |
70.0% |
| home_+0.5 |
55.4% |
away_-0.5 |
44.6% |
home_+1.5 |
76.7% |
| away_-1.5 |
23.3% |
home_+2.5 |
90.4% |
away_-2.5 |
9.7% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
6.0% |
exact_1 |
14.7% |
exact_2 |
23.6% |
| exact_3 |
22.4% |
exact_4 |
16.3% |
exact_5 |
9.5% |
| exact_6 |
4.6% |
exact_7plus |
2.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
30.6% |
draw |
39.5% |
away |
29.9% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
73.5% |
under_0.5 |
26.5% |
over_1.5 |
38.3% |
| under_1.5 |
61.7% |
over_2.5 |
14.9% |
under_2.5 |
85.1% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
26.5% |
exact_1 |
35.2% |
exact_2 |
23.4% |
| exact_3 |
10.3% |
exact_4plus |
4.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
39.9% |
draw |
34.6% |
away |
25.5% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
80.3% |
under_0.5 |
19.7% |
over_1.5 |
48.2% |
| under_1.5 |
51.8% |
over_2.5 |
22.3% |
under_2.5 |
77.8% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
24.5% |
H/D |
4.4% |
H/A |
1.7% |
| D/H |
15.8% |
D/D |
13.7% |
D/A |
10.1% |
| A/H |
3.5% |
A/D |
6.2% |
A/A |
20.2% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
76.0% |
under_7.5 |
24.0% |
over_8.5 |
65.3% |
| under_8.5 |
34.8% |
over_9.5 |
53.7% |
under_9.5 |
46.3% |
| over_10.5 |
42.2% |
under_10.5 |
57.8% |
over_11.5 |
31.8% |
| under_11.5 |
68.2% |
over_12.5 |
22.9% |
under_12.5 |
77.1% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
72.9% |
under_3.5 |
27.1% |
over_4.5 |
58.2% |
| under_4.5 |
41.8% |
over_5.5 |
43.6% |
under_5.5 |
56.4% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
64.6% |
under_3.5 |
35.4% |
over_4.5 |
48.5% |
| under_4.5 |
51.5% |
over_5.5 |
34.0% |
under_5.5 |
66.0% |
|
most
| home |
51.3% |
draw |
10.0% |
away |
38.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
23.4% |
away_+3.5 |
76.6% |
home_-1.5 |
41.2% |
| away_+1.5 |
58.8% |
home_-0.5 |
51.3% |
away_+0.5 |
48.7% |
| home_+0.5 |
61.4% |
away_-0.5 |
38.7% |
home_+1.5 |
70.7% |
| away_-1.5 |
29.3% |
home_+3.5 |
85.3% |
away_-3.5 |
14.7% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
62.2% |
under_22.5 |
37.8% |
over_24.5 |
50.6% |
| under_24.5 |
49.4% |
over_26.5 |
39.3% |
under_26.5 |
60.7% |
| over_28.5 |
29.0% |
under_28.5 |
71.0% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
70.7% |
under_10.5 |
29.3% |
over_12.5 |
55.4% |
| under_12.5 |
44.6% |
over_14.5 |
40.3% |
under_14.5 |
59.7% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
54.2% |
under_10.5 |
45.8% |
over_12.5 |
37.5% |
| under_12.5 |
62.5% |
over_14.5 |
23.9% |
under_14.5 |
76.1% |
|
most
| home |
59.6% |
draw |
5.6% |
away |
34.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
36.3% |
away_+4.5 |
63.7% |
home_-2.5 |
47.9% |
| away_+2.5 |
52.2% |
home_-0.5 |
59.6% |
away_+0.5 |
40.4% |
| home_+0.5 |
65.2% |
away_-0.5 |
34.8% |
home_+2.5 |
75.4% |
| away_-2.5 |
24.7% |
home_+4.5 |
83.7% |
away_-4.5 |
16.3% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
71.4% |
under_6.5 |
28.6% |
over_7.5 |
59.6% |
| under_7.5 |
40.4% |
over_8.5 |
47.6% |
under_8.5 |
52.4% |
| over_9.5 |
36.3% |
under_9.5 |
63.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
63.5% |
under_3.5 |
36.5% |
over_4.5 |
46.9% |
| under_4.5 |
53.1% |
over_5.5 |
32.2% |
under_5.5 |
67.8% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
53.8% |
under_3.5 |
46.3% |
over_4.5 |
36.6% |
| under_4.5 |
63.4% |
over_5.5 |
23.0% |
under_5.5 |
77.0% |
|
most
| home |
51.0% |
draw |
12.2% |
away |
36.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
27.8% |
away_+2.5 |
72.2% |
home_-0.5 |
51.0% |
| away_+0.5 |
49.0% |
home_+0.5 |
63.2% |
away_-0.5 |
36.8% |
| home_+2.5 |
83.0% |
away_-2.5 |
17.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
76.3% |
under_2.5 |
23.7% |
over_3.5 |
56.8% |
| under_3.5 |
43.2% |
over_4.5 |
37.2% |
under_4.5 |
62.8% |
| over_5.5 |
21.6% |
under_5.5 |
78.4% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
57.7% |
under_1.5 |
42.3% |
over_2.5 |
30.7% |
| under_2.5 |
69.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
61.2% |
under_1.5 |
38.8% |
over_2.5 |
34.2% |
| under_2.5 |
65.9% |
most
| home |
37.2% |
draw |
20.7% |
away |
42.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
19.9% |
away_+1.5 |
80.1% |
home_-0.5 |
37.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
62.8% |
home_+0.5 |
57.8% |
away_-0.5 |
42.2% |
| home_+1.5 |
76.3% |
away_-1.5 |
23.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
61.9% |
under_20.5 |
38.1% |
over_22.5 |
45.7% |
| under_22.5 |
54.3% |
over_24.5 |
30.7% |
under_24.5 |
69.3% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
68.7% |
under_9.5 |
31.3% |
over_11.5 |
46.2% |
| under_11.5 |
53.8% |
over_13.5 |
26.1% |
under_13.5 |
73.9% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
62.9% |
under_9.5 |
37.1% |
over_11.5 |
39.8% |
| under_11.5 |
60.2% |
over_13.5 |
20.9% |
under_13.5 |
79.1% |
|
most
| home |
50.5% |
draw |
8.1% |
away |
41.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
27.3% |
away_+3.5 |
72.7% |
home_-0.5 |
50.5% |
| away_+0.5 |
49.5% |
home_+2.5 |
73.5% |
away_-2.5 |
26.5% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Premier League
Spurs
Newcastle