Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
71.1% |
Over 7.5 |
58.6% |
Over 8.5 |
45.7% |
Over 9.5 |
33.8% |
| Most: Rayo Vallecano |
57.3% |
Most: Alaves |
30.3% |
| Rayo Vallecano Over 4.2 |
50.2% |
Alaves Over 4.2 |
30.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
84.2% |
Over 3.5 |
68.5% |
Over 4.5 |
50.4% |
| Most: Rayo Vallecano |
33.7% |
Most: Alaves |
48.0% |
| Rayo Vallecano Over 1.8 |
62.6% |
Alaves Over 1.8 |
71.7% |
Rayo Vallecano: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Sergio Camello |
2.7 |
1.02 |
0.33 |
39.2% |
38.0% |
14.9% |
| Alemão |
2.01 |
0.97 |
0.32 |
37.1% |
25.0% |
14.2% |
| Randy Nteka |
1.83 |
0.88 |
0.38 |
32.2% |
19.4% |
15.4% |
| Álvaro García |
2.26 |
0.86 |
0.15 |
48.4% |
51.8% |
10.9% |
| Jorge De Frutos |
2.04 |
0.79 |
0.27 |
46.3% |
47.6% |
19.1% |
Alaves: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Antonio Martínez |
3.32 |
1.21 |
0.44 |
53.6% |
62.3% |
24.4% |
| Tomás Conechny |
2.6 |
1.18 |
0.12 |
37.8% |
28.1% |
4.7% |
| Kike García |
2.14 |
0.94 |
0.43 |
53.4% |
51.8% |
29.5% |
| Lucas Boyé |
2.89 |
0.92 |
0.51 |
49.9% |
63.8% |
31.8% |
| Carlos Martín |
1.71 |
0.79 |
0.13 |
37.0% |
26.4% |
7.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet |
27.4% |
| Alaves clean sheet |
29.1% |
| Rayo Vallecano win to nil |
18.8% |
| Alaves win to nil |
20.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
34.6% |
draw |
28.1% |
away |
37.3% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
62.7% |
12 |
71.9% |
X2 |
65.4% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
19.5% |
home_by_2 |
10.0% |
home_by_3plus |
5.1% |
| away_by_1 |
20.4% |
away_by_2 |
11.0% |
away_by_3plus |
5.9% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
8.6% |
0-1 |
9.7% |
0-2 |
6.7% |
| 0-3 |
2.9% |
0-4 |
0.9% |
0-5 |
0.2% |
| 1-0 |
9.2% |
1-1 |
13.4% |
1-2 |
8.2% |
| 1-3 |
3.5% |
1-4 |
1.2% |
1-5 |
0.3% |
| 2-0 |
6.1% |
2-1 |
7.9% |
2-2 |
5.1% |
| 2-3 |
2.2% |
2-4 |
0.7% |
2-5 |
0.2% |
| 3-0 |
2.5% |
3-1 |
3.2% |
3-2 |
2.1% |
| 3-3 |
0.9% |
3-4 |
0.3% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
0.8% |
4-1 |
1.0% |
4-2 |
0.7% |
| 4-3 |
0.3% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.2% |
5-1 |
0.3% |
5-2 |
0.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
13.4% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
91.4% |
under_0.5 |
8.6% |
over_1.5 |
72.4% |
| under_1.5 |
27.6% |
over_2.5 |
46.3% |
under_2.5 |
53.7% |
| over_3.5 |
24.8% |
under_3.5 |
75.2% |
over_4.5 |
11.2% |
| under_4.5 |
88.8% |
over_5.5 |
4.4% |
under_5.5 |
95.6% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
70.9% |
under_0.5 |
29.2% |
over_1.5 |
34.9% |
| under_1.5 |
65.1% |
over_2.5 |
12.8% |
under_2.5 |
87.2% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
72.5% |
under_0.5 |
27.5% |
over_1.5 |
37.0% |
| under_1.5 |
63.0% |
over_2.5 |
14.1% |
under_2.5 |
85.9% |
|
most
| home |
34.6% |
draw |
28.1% |
away |
37.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
5.1% |
away_+2.5 |
95.0% |
home_-1.5 |
15.1% |
| away_+1.5 |
84.9% |
home_-0.5 |
34.6% |
away_+0.5 |
65.4% |
| home_+0.5 |
62.7% |
away_-0.5 |
37.3% |
home_+1.5 |
83.1% |
| away_-1.5 |
16.9% |
home_+2.5 |
94.1% |
away_-2.5 |
5.9% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
8.6% |
exact_1 |
18.9% |
exact_2 |
26.2% |
| exact_3 |
21.5% |
exact_4 |
13.6% |
exact_5 |
6.9% |
| exact_6 |
2.9% |
exact_7plus |
1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
33.1% |
draw |
45.6% |
away |
21.3% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
64.1% |
under_0.5 |
35.9% |
over_1.5 |
27.4% |
| under_1.5 |
72.6% |
over_2.5 |
8.5% |
under_2.5 |
91.5% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
35.9% |
exact_1 |
36.8% |
exact_2 |
18.9% |
| exact_3 |
6.5% |
exact_4plus |
2.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
43.7% |
draw |
33.7% |
away |
22.6% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
80.8% |
under_0.5 |
19.2% |
over_1.5 |
49.2% |
| under_1.5 |
50.8% |
over_2.5 |
23.0% |
under_2.5 |
77.0% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
27.1% |
H/D |
4.4% |
H/A |
1.5% |
| D/H |
20.0% |
D/D |
15.4% |
D/A |
10.3% |
| A/H |
3.2% |
A/D |
5.0% |
A/A |
13.1% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
72.2% |
under_7.5 |
27.8% |
over_8.5 |
60.5% |
| under_8.5 |
39.5% |
over_9.5 |
48.2% |
under_9.5 |
51.8% |
| over_10.5 |
36.6% |
under_10.5 |
63.4% |
over_11.5 |
26.4% |
| under_11.5 |
73.6% |
over_12.5 |
18.2% |
under_12.5 |
81.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
75.1% |
under_3.5 |
24.9% |
over_4.5 |
60.2% |
| under_4.5 |
39.8% |
over_5.5 |
45.0% |
under_5.5 |
55.0% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
57.0% |
under_3.5 |
43.0% |
over_4.5 |
39.6% |
| under_4.5 |
60.4% |
over_5.5 |
25.2% |
under_5.5 |
74.8% |
|
most
| home |
58.2% |
draw |
10.4% |
away |
31.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
26.8% |
away_+3.5 |
73.2% |
home_-1.5 |
47.2% |
| away_+1.5 |
52.8% |
home_-0.5 |
58.2% |
away_+0.5 |
41.8% |
| home_+0.5 |
68.6% |
away_-0.5 |
31.4% |
home_+1.5 |
77.8% |
| away_-1.5 |
22.3% |
home_+3.5 |
90.6% |
away_-3.5 |
9.4% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
60.7% |
under_22.5 |
39.3% |
over_24.5 |
48.0% |
| under_24.5 |
52.0% |
over_26.5 |
35.9% |
under_26.5 |
64.1% |
| over_28.5 |
25.3% |
under_28.5 |
74.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
73.0% |
under_10.5 |
27.0% |
over_12.5 |
56.8% |
| under_12.5 |
43.2% |
over_14.5 |
40.4% |
under_14.5 |
59.6% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
50.2% |
under_10.5 |
49.8% |
over_12.5 |
32.3% |
| under_12.5 |
67.7% |
over_14.5 |
18.6% |
under_14.5 |
81.4% |
|
most
| home |
64.0% |
draw |
5.9% |
away |
30.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
38.7% |
away_+4.5 |
61.3% |
home_-2.5 |
51.4% |
| away_+2.5 |
48.6% |
home_-0.5 |
64.0% |
away_+0.5 |
36.0% |
| home_+0.5 |
69.8% |
away_-0.5 |
30.2% |
home_+2.5 |
80.0% |
| away_-2.5 |
20.0% |
home_+4.5 |
87.8% |
away_-4.5 |
12.2% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
71.1% |
under_6.5 |
28.9% |
over_7.5 |
58.6% |
| under_7.5 |
41.4% |
over_8.5 |
45.7% |
under_8.5 |
54.3% |
| over_9.5 |
33.8% |
under_9.5 |
66.2% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
67.4% |
under_3.5 |
32.6% |
over_4.5 |
50.2% |
| under_4.5 |
49.8% |
over_5.5 |
34.2% |
under_5.5 |
65.8% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
48.5% |
under_3.5 |
51.5% |
over_4.5 |
30.7% |
| under_4.5 |
69.4% |
over_5.5 |
17.5% |
under_5.5 |
82.6% |
|
most
| home |
57.3% |
draw |
12.4% |
away |
30.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
31.8% |
away_+2.5 |
68.2% |
home_-0.5 |
57.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
42.7% |
home_+0.5 |
69.7% |
away_-0.5 |
30.3% |
| home_+2.5 |
88.0% |
away_-2.5 |
12.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
84.2% |
under_2.5 |
15.8% |
over_3.5 |
68.5% |
| under_3.5 |
31.5% |
over_4.5 |
50.4% |
under_4.5 |
49.6% |
| over_5.5 |
33.4% |
under_5.5 |
66.6% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
62.6% |
under_1.5 |
37.4% |
over_2.5 |
36.3% |
| under_2.5 |
63.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
71.7% |
under_1.5 |
28.3% |
over_2.5 |
46.8% |
| under_2.5 |
53.2% |
most
| home |
33.7% |
draw |
18.4% |
away |
48.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
18.7% |
away_+1.5 |
81.3% |
home_-0.5 |
33.7% |
| away_+0.5 |
66.3% |
home_+0.5 |
52.0% |
away_-0.5 |
48.0% |
| home_+1.5 |
69.8% |
away_-1.5 |
30.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
84.5% |
under_20.5 |
15.5% |
over_22.5 |
74.3% |
| under_22.5 |
25.7% |
over_24.5 |
61.8% |
under_24.5 |
38.2% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
77.3% |
under_9.5 |
22.7% |
over_11.5 |
59.0% |
| under_11.5 |
41.0% |
over_13.5 |
39.8% |
under_13.5 |
60.2% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
84.4% |
under_9.5 |
15.7% |
over_11.5 |
69.0% |
| under_11.5 |
31.0% |
over_13.5 |
50.7% |
under_13.5 |
49.3% |
|
most
| home |
39.1% |
draw |
6.7% |
away |
54.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
21.5% |
away_+3.5 |
78.5% |
home_-0.5 |
39.1% |
| away_+0.5 |
60.9% |
home_+2.5 |
59.2% |
away_-2.5 |
40.8% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
La Liga
Alaves