Las Palmas vs Albacete: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónLas Palmas or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Las Palmas at 48.7%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 54.1% and it missed (3 goals). We called No at 50.2% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Las Palmas at 49% for 16 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Las Palmas higher (60%) than our model does. 2) No strong lean on goals (46% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Las Palmas against W4 D0 L2 for Albacete. Fabio Silva drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Las Palmas, 0 draws and 2 for Albacete, averaging 3.4 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
48.7%-11.7%
27.1%+3.3%
24.3%+8.5%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Las Palmas 3 · 0 draws · Albacete 2 · 3.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
Las PalmasAlbacete45.2%50.0%
57.1%57.1%
33.3%33.3%
League averages this season: 2.63 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 2.95
@ 1.62
@ 1.65
@ ·
@ 5.49
@ 9.01
@ 3.95
@ 2.02
@ 2.00
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.2% | Over 7.5 | 59.4% | Over 8.5 | 46.1% | Over 9.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Las Palmas | 60.8% | Most: Albacete | 26.8% | ||||
| Las Palmas Over 4.2 | 53.0% | Albacete Over 4.2 | 28.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 79.2% | Over 3.5 | 60.8% | Over 4.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Las Palmas | 33.5% | Most: Albacete | 46.6% | ||
| Las Palmas Over 1.8 | 57.6% | Albacete Over 1.8 | 66.5% |
Las Palmas: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabio Silva | 2.32 | 1.09 | 0.47 | 61.7% | 60.5% | 33.9% |
| Jaime Mata | 2.68 | 0.95 | 0 | 18.2% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Sandro Ramírez | 2.24 | 0.91 | 0.39 | 49.4% | 49.9% | 25.3% |
| Adnan Januzaj | 2.56 | 0.8 | 0.32 | 24.3% | 22.4% | 10.5% |
| Alberto Moleiro | 2.21 | 0.78 | 0.2 | 49.6% | 57.7% | 16.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Las Palmas clean sheet | 36.8% |
|---|---|
| Albacete clean sheet | 22.0% |
| Las Palmas win to nil | 28.0% |
| Albacete win to nil | 13.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 48.7% | draw | 27.1% | away | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 75.7% | 12 | 72.9% | X2 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 66.7% | away | 33.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.8% | no | 50.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 36.9% | away | 22.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 28.2% | away | 13.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.6% | home_by_2 | 15.0% | home_by_3plus | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.3% | away_by_2 | 6.5% | away_by_3plus | 2.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.7% | 0-1 | 7.5% | 0-2 | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.3% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 6.1% |
| 1-3 | 2.0% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.3% | 2-1 | 9.3% | 2-2 | 4.6% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.7% | 3-1 | 4.7% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.8% | 4-1 | 1.8% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.3% | under_0.5 | 8.7% | over_1.5 | 72.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.9% | over_2.5 | 45.9% | under_2.5 | 54.1% |
| over_3.5 | 24.5% | under_3.5 | 75.5% | over_4.5 | 11.0% |
| under_4.5 | 89.0% | over_5.5 | 4.3% | under_5.5 | 95.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 78.0% | under_0.5 | 22.0% | over_1.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.3% | over_2.5 | 19.5% | under_2.5 | 80.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 63.1% | under_0.5 | 36.9% | over_1.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.7% | over_2.5 | 8.0% | under_2.5 | 92.1% |
most
| home | 48.7% | draw | 27.1% | away | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.1% | away_+2.5 | 89.9% | home_-1.5 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 75.0% | home_-0.5 | 48.7% | away_+0.5 | 51.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.7% | away_-0.5 | 24.3% | home_+1.5 | 91.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.0% | home_+2.5 | 97.5% | away_-2.5 | 2.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.7% | exact_1 | 19.2% | exact_2 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.4% | exact_4 | 13.4% | exact_5 | 6.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.8% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.6% | draw | 42.2% | away | 18.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.0% | under_0.5 | 32.0% | over_1.5 | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.5% | over_2.5 | 10.8% | under_2.5 | 89.3% |
btts
| yes | 17.3% | no | 82.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.0% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.9% | exact_4plus | 2.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.0% | draw | 38.9% | away | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.1% | under_0.5 | 25.9% | over_1.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.8% | over_2.5 | 15.5% | under_2.5 | 84.5% |
btts
| yes | 23.8% | no | 76.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 32.1% | H/D | 5.7% | H/A | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.2% | D/D | 16.4% | D/A | 10.6% |
| A/H | 1.8% | A/D | 3.9% | A/A | 12.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.9% | under_7.5 | 27.1% | over_8.5 | 61.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 38.8% | over_9.5 | 48.9% | under_9.5 | 51.1% |
| over_10.5 | 37.2% | under_10.5 | 62.8% | over_11.5 | 26.8% |
| under_11.5 | 73.2% | over_12.5 | 18.5% | under_12.5 | 81.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.8% | under_3.5 | 25.2% | over_4.5 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.4% | over_5.5 | 44.1% | under_5.5 | 55.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.1% | under_3.5 | 40.9% | over_4.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.4% | over_5.5 | 26.8% | under_5.5 | 73.2% |
most
| home | 56.5% | draw | 10.7% | away | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.1% | away_+3.5 | 74.9% | home_-1.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.7% | home_-0.5 | 56.5% | away_+0.5 | 43.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.2% | away_-0.5 | 32.8% | home_+1.5 | 76.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.4% | home_+3.5 | 90.0% | away_-3.5 | 10.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.4% | under_22.5 | 37.6% | over_24.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.5% | over_26.5 | 36.9% | under_26.5 | 63.1% |
| over_28.5 | 25.9% | under_28.5 | 74.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.6% | under_10.5 | 23.5% | over_12.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 39.4% | over_14.5 | 43.8% | under_14.5 | 56.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 48.4% | under_10.5 | 51.6% | over_12.5 | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.8% | over_14.5 | 16.7% | under_14.5 | 83.3% |
most
| home | 68.0% | draw | 5.7% | away | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 42.4% | away_+4.5 | 57.6% | home_-2.5 | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 44.6% | home_-0.5 | 68.0% | away_+0.5 | 32.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.7% | away_-0.5 | 26.3% | home_+2.5 | 83.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 16.8% | home_+4.5 | 90.2% | away_-4.5 | 9.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.2% | under_6.5 | 27.8% | over_7.5 | 59.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 40.6% | over_8.5 | 46.1% | under_8.5 | 53.9% |
| over_9.5 | 33.7% | under_9.5 | 66.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.4% | under_3.5 | 29.6% | over_4.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.1% | over_5.5 | 36.3% | under_5.5 | 63.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 46.5% | under_3.5 | 53.5% | over_4.5 | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.8% | over_5.5 | 15.2% | under_5.5 | 84.8% |
most
| home | 60.8% | draw | 12.3% | away | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 34.3% | away_+2.5 | 65.7% | home_-0.5 | 60.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 39.2% | home_+0.5 | 73.2% | away_-0.5 | 26.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.3% | away_-2.5 | 9.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 79.2% | under_2.5 | 20.8% | over_3.5 | 60.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 39.2% | over_4.5 | 41.4% | under_4.5 | 58.6% |
| over_5.5 | 25.0% | under_5.5 | 75.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 57.6% | under_1.5 | 42.4% | over_2.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.5% | under_1.5 | 33.5% | over_2.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 60.1% |
most
| home | 33.6% | draw | 19.9% | away | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.6% | away_+1.5 | 82.4% | home_-0.5 | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.5% | home_+0.5 | 53.4% | away_-0.5 | 46.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.2% | away_-1.5 | 27.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 72.3% | under_20.5 | 27.7% | over_22.5 | 58.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 41.1% | over_24.5 | 44.9% | under_24.5 | 55.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 65.9% | under_9.5 | 34.1% | over_11.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 54.7% | over_13.5 | 27.1% | under_13.5 | 72.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 77.3% | under_9.5 | 22.7% | over_11.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 40.8% | over_13.5 | 40.2% | under_13.5 | 59.8% |
most
| home | 36.8% | draw | 6.9% | away | 56.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 19.2% | away_+3.5 | 80.8% | home_-0.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.2% | home_+2.5 | 57.9% | away_-2.5 | 42.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 18.8% | no | 81.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.7% | no | 89.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.1% | no | 90.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Las Palmas predictions · Albacete predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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