Stoke vs Swansea: model prediction
ChampionshipOver 1.5 goals
Stoke or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Stoke at 36.9%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 56.6% and it missed (3 goals). We called No at 50.3% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Stoke and Swansea on 15 August 2026: Stoke nose ahead at 37%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Stoke higher (41%) than our model does. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 43% with both teams to score at 50%. 3) Recent form reads W0 D1 L5 for Stoke against W3 D2 L1 for Swansea. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Stoke, 1 draws and 2 for Swansea at 2.4 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.003 <= 0).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
36.9%-3.9%
28.8%-0.3%
34.2%+4.1%
conservative EV -0.003 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Stoke 2 · 1 draws · Swansea 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
43.5%50.0%
43.5%54.3%
28.3%26.1%
League averages this season: 2.61 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 51% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.8% | Over 7.5 | 60.9% | Over 8.5 | 48.5% | Over 9.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Stoke | 56.3% | Most: Swansea | 31.6% | ||||
| Stoke Over 4.2 | 51.2% | Swansea Over 4.2 | 33.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 74.0% | Over 3.5 | 53.8% | Over 4.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Stoke | 34.5% | Most: Swansea | 44.6% | ||
| Stoke Over 1.8 | 53.7% | Swansea Over 1.8 | 60.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Stoke clean sheet | 30.7% |
|---|---|
| Swansea clean sheet | 29.1% |
| Stoke win to nil | 21.1% |
| Swansea win to nil | 19.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 36.9% | draw | 28.8% | away | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 65.8% | 12 | 71.2% | X2 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 51.9% | away | 48.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.7% | no | 50.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 30.8% | away | 29.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.2% | away | 19.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.6% | home_by_2 | 10.8% | home_by_3plus | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.7% | away_by_2 | 9.9% | away_by_3plus | 4.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.6% | 0-1 | 9.9% | 0-2 | 6.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.5% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | 1-1 | 13.7% | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 1-3 | 3.0% | 1-4 | 0.9% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 6.8% | 2-1 | 8.0% | 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.8% | 3-1 | 3.3% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.9% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.4% | under_0.5 | 9.6% | over_1.5 | 70.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.9% | over_2.5 | 43.4% | under_2.5 | 56.6% |
| over_3.5 | 22.4% | under_3.5 | 77.6% | over_4.5 | 9.8% |
| under_4.5 | 90.2% | over_5.5 | 3.7% | under_5.5 | 96.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.9% | under_0.5 | 29.1% | over_1.5 | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.0% | over_2.5 | 12.8% | under_2.5 | 87.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 69.2% | under_0.5 | 30.8% | over_1.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.0% | over_2.5 | 11.6% | under_2.5 | 88.4% |
most
| home | 36.9% | draw | 28.8% | away | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.5% | away_+2.5 | 94.5% | home_-1.5 | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 83.7% | home_-0.5 | 36.9% | away_+0.5 | 63.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.8% | away_-0.5 | 34.2% | home_+1.5 | 85.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.5% | home_+2.5 | 95.3% | away_-2.5 | 4.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.6% | exact_1 | 20.3% | exact_2 | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.0% | exact_4 | 12.7% | exact_5 | 6.1% |
| exact_6 | 2.5% | exact_7plus | 1.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.6% | draw | 47.3% | away | 21.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 61.8% | under_0.5 | 38.3% | over_1.5 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.0% | over_2.5 | 7.3% | under_2.5 | 92.7% |
btts
| yes | 14.2% | no | 85.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 38.3% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.7% | exact_4plus | 1.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.6% | draw | 37.3% | away | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.4% | under_0.5 | 23.6% | over_1.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.6% | over_2.5 | 17.8% | under_2.5 | 82.2% |
btts
| yes | 26.0% | no | 74.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 21.9% | H/D | 6.5% | H/A | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.1% | D/D | 17.7% | D/A | 17.6% |
| A/H | 1.2% | A/D | 3.4% | A/A | 16.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.5% | under_7.5 | 22.5% | over_8.5 | 66.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.1% | over_9.5 | 55.2% | under_9.5 | 44.8% |
| over_10.5 | 43.4% | under_10.5 | 56.6% | over_11.5 | 32.7% |
| under_11.5 | 67.4% | over_12.5 | 23.4% | under_12.5 | 76.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.3% | under_3.5 | 20.7% | over_4.5 | 65.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.4% | over_5.5 | 50.7% | under_5.5 | 49.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.5% | under_3.5 | 39.5% | over_4.5 | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.9% | over_5.5 | 28.2% | under_5.5 | 71.8% |
most
| home | 59.9% | draw | 10.1% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.8% | away_+3.5 | 71.2% | home_-1.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.8% | home_-0.5 | 59.9% | away_+0.5 | 40.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.0% | away_-0.5 | 30.0% | home_+1.5 | 78.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.3% | home_+3.5 | 91.0% | away_-3.5 | 9.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 59.2% | under_22.5 | 40.8% | over_24.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 53.5% | over_26.5 | 34.6% | under_26.5 | 65.4% |
| over_28.5 | 24.2% | under_28.5 | 75.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 69.8% | under_10.5 | 30.3% | over_12.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 47.1% | over_14.5 | 36.6% | under_14.5 | 63.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 52.3% | under_10.5 | 47.7% | over_12.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.6% | over_14.5 | 20.3% | under_14.5 | 79.7% |
most
| home | 59.9% | draw | 6.1% | away | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.7% | away_+4.5 | 65.4% | home_-2.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.9% | home_-0.5 | 59.9% | away_+0.5 | 40.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.0% | away_-0.5 | 34.1% | home_+2.5 | 76.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.2% | home_+4.5 | 85.4% | away_-4.5 | 14.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.8% | under_6.5 | 27.2% | over_7.5 | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.1% | over_8.5 | 48.4% | under_8.5 | 51.6% |
| over_9.5 | 36.7% | under_9.5 | 63.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.9% | under_3.5 | 32.1% | over_4.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.8% | over_5.5 | 35.7% | under_5.5 | 64.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.0% | under_3.5 | 49.0% | over_4.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.7% | over_5.5 | 19.8% | under_5.5 | 80.2% |
most
| home | 56.3% | draw | 12.1% | away | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.8% | away_+2.5 | 68.2% | home_-0.5 | 56.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.7% | home_+0.5 | 68.4% | away_-0.5 | 31.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.8% | away_-2.5 | 13.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 74.0% | under_2.5 | 26.0% | over_3.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 46.2% | over_4.5 | 34.3% | under_4.5 | 65.7% |
| over_5.5 | 19.3% | under_5.5 | 80.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 53.7% | under_1.5 | 46.3% | over_2.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 60.9% | under_1.5 | 39.1% | over_2.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.1% |
most
| home | 34.5% | draw | 21.0% | away | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.7% | away_+1.5 | 82.4% | home_-0.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.5% | home_+0.5 | 55.4% | away_-0.5 | 44.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.7% | away_-1.5 | 25.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 56.9% | under_20.5 | 43.1% | over_22.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 58.8% | over_24.5 | 27.3% | under_24.5 | 72.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 68.8% | under_9.5 | 31.2% | over_11.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 52.8% | over_13.5 | 27.7% | under_13.5 | 72.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 54.6% | under_9.5 | 45.4% | over_11.5 | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 67.6% | over_13.5 | 16.1% | under_13.5 | 83.9% |
most
| home | 56.7% | draw | 7.7% | away | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 33.2% | away_+3.5 | 66.8% | home_-0.5 | 56.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.4% | home_+2.5 | 77.9% | away_-2.5 | 22.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 8.0% | no | 92.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.3% | no | 92.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 0.8% | no | 99.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Stoke predictions · Swansea predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets