Lille vs Paris SG prediction & probabilities (2026-08-28)

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Lille vs Paris SG: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 28 Aug 2026

Ligue 1
Lille

WDWLW

Full time2-2Fri, 28 Aug 202619:45UK19°C · Cloudy
Paris SG

DWWLD

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Draw or Paris SG

58%

Lille or draw

Full time1 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Lille 2-2 Paris SG
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score
1 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Paris SG at 42.1%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 50.1% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 54.6% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Paris SGWin probability
42.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals75.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
Draw or Paris SG68.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Lille or draw57.9%Good chancePays @ 1.73

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Paris SG at 42% for 28 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Paris SG higher (57%) than our model does. No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Chuba Akpom drives the home shot volume, 1.6 on target per 90. Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Lille against W3 D2 L1 for Paris SG. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Lille, 1 draws and 4 for Paris SG at 3.6 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners46.5%@ 2.15
Paris SG win42.1%@ 2.38
Over 10.5 corners36.3%@ 2.75
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners57.4%@ 1.74
Both teams to score54.6%@ 1.83
Under 2.5 goals50.1%@ 2.00
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.77
0-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.67
1-2 correct score8.8%@ 11.31

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lille

31.3%+12.8%

Draw

26.6%+1.9%

Paris SG

42.1%-14.7%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.549.9%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes54.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.4%

Good chance

Over 9.546.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.536.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.527.3%

Low chance

Most cornersLille52.5%Paris SG36.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.5%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.2%2.549.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.575.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LilleWDWLW
Paris SGDWWLD

Last 5 meetings: Lille 0 · 1 draws · Paris SG 4 · 3.6 goals/game.

2026-01-16Paris SG 3-0 Lille
2025-10-05Lille 1-1 Paris SG
2025-03-01Paris SG 4-1 Lille
2024-09-01Lille 1-3 Paris SG
2024-02-10Paris SG 3-1 Lille

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LilleParis SG
League position#3 of 18#8 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-00-1-0
Current streakW1D1
Record, home vs away·0-1-0
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Chuba AkpomLille · key player
To score19.4%

@ 5.15

1+ on target54.3%

@ 1.84

2+ shots41.7%

@ 2.40

Shots/90 2.84SoT/90 1.56Goals/90 0.43
Ethan MbappéLille · in form
To score10.8%

@ 9.26

1+ on target32.0%

@ 3.13

2+ shots20.8%

@ 4.81

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 1.38Goals/90 0.41
Jonathan Christian DavidLille · in form
To score39.1%

@ 2.56

1+ on target67.9%

@ 1.47

2+ shots68.4%

@ 1.46

Shots/90 2.62SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.55

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Lille win5.003.19
Draw3.803.76
Paris SG win1.702.38
Over 2.5 goals1.802.00
Under 2.5 goals2.002.00

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lille win3.17
Draw3.70
Paris SG win2.41
Both teams to score1.83

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.33
Over 2.5 goals2.00
Over 3.5 goals3.58
Lille most3.17
Paris SG most2.41

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.40
Over 8.5 corners1.68
Over 9.5 corners2.11
Over 10.5 corners2.80
Lille most1.90
Paris SG most2.74

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.52
Over 3.5 cards2.29
Over 4.5 cards3.97
Over 5.5 cards7.89
Lille most2.61
Paris SG most2.56

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.55
Over 8.5 SoT1.91
Over 9.5 SoT2.47
Lille most2.22
Paris SG most2.35

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.06
Over 26.5 shots2.74
Over 28.5 shots3.87
Lille most1.75
Paris SG most2.73

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.84
Over 22.5 fouls2.55
Over 24.5 fouls3.83
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.1% Over 7.5 64.7% Over 8.5 52.5% Over 9.5 40.5%
Most: Lille 45.0% Most: Paris SG 42.5%
Lille Over 4.2 46.2% Paris SG Over 4.2 44.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 65.6% Over 3.5 43.7% Over 4.5 25.2%
Most: Lille 38.3% Most: Paris SG 39.0%
Lille Over 1.8 50.1% Paris SG Over 1.8 50.6%

Lille: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Chuba Akpom 2.84 1.56 0.43 54.3% 41.7% 19.4%
Ethan Mbappé 3.03 1.38 0.41 32.0% 20.8% 10.8%
Jonathan Christian David 2.62 1.26 0.55 67.9% 68.4% 39.1%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo 2.36 1.09 0.31 56.1% 53.2% 20.9%
Olivier Giroud 2.29 0.89 0.39 41.2% 39.6% 20.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lille clean sheet 23.6%
Paris SG clean sheet 29.2%
Lille win to nil 16.0%
Paris SG win to nil 21.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 31.5% draw 27.0% away 41.5%
double_chance
1X 58.6% 12 73.0% X2 68.5%
dnb
home 43.2% away 56.8%
btts
yes 54.6% no 45.4%
clean_sheet
home 23.6% away 29.3%
win_to_nil
home 16.1% away 21.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.0% home_by_2 9.1% home_by_3plus 4.5%
away_by_1 21.3% away_by_2 12.5% away_by_3plus 7.7%
correct_score
0-0 7.5% 0-1 9.4% 0-2 7.2%
0-3 3.5% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.9% 1-1 12.9% 1-2 8.8%
1-3 4.3% 1-4 1.5% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.2% 2-1 7.5% 2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.6% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.1% 3-1 3.1% 3-2 2.2%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.7% 4-1 1.0% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.5% under_0.5 7.5% over_1.5 75.2%
under_1.5 24.8% over_2.5 49.9% under_2.5 50.1%
over_3.5 28.0% under_3.5 72.0% over_4.5 13.3%
under_4.5 86.7% over_5.5 5.5% under_5.5 94.6%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 70.7% under_0.5 29.3% over_1.5 34.8%
under_1.5 65.3% over_2.5 12.7% under_2.5 87.3%
team_away
over_0.5 76.4% under_0.5 23.6% over_1.5 42.3%
under_1.5 57.7% over_2.5 17.7% under_2.5 82.3%
most
home 31.5% draw 27.0% away 41.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.5% away_+2.5 95.5% home_-1.5 13.5%
away_+1.5 86.5% home_-0.5 31.5% away_+0.5 68.5%
home_+0.5 58.5% away_-0.5 41.5% home_+1.5 79.8%
away_-1.5 20.2% home_+2.5 92.3% away_-2.5 7.7%
total_exact
exact_0 7.5% exact_1 17.3% exact_2 25.3%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 14.7% exact_5 7.8%
exact_6 3.5% exact_7plus 2.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.0% draw 43.7% away 31.3%
total
over_0.5 67.3% under_0.5 32.7% over_1.5 30.8%
under_1.5 69.3% over_2.5 10.3% under_2.5 89.7%
btts
yes 18.2% no 81.8%
total_exact
exact_0 32.7% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 20.4%
exact_3 7.6% exact_4plus 2.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.0% draw 36.9% away 35.1%
total
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.6%
under_1.5 56.4% over_2.5 18.6% under_2.5 81.4%
btts
yes 27.2% no 72.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 17.6% H/D 5.0% H/A 2.4%
D/H 12.2% D/D 16.1% D/A 15.3%
A/H 1.9% A/D 5.1% A/A 24.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.4% under_7.5 28.6% over_8.5 59.6%
under_8.5 40.5% over_9.5 47.3% under_9.5 52.7%
over_10.5 35.7% under_10.5 64.3% over_11.5 25.7%
under_11.5 74.3% over_12.5 17.6% under_12.5 82.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.5% under_3.5 28.5% over_4.5 55.8%
under_4.5 44.3% over_5.5 40.4% under_5.5 59.6%
team_away
over_3.5 60.6% under_3.5 39.4% over_4.5 43.4%
under_4.5 56.6% over_5.5 28.6% under_5.5 71.4%
most
home 52.6% draw 10.9% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.3% away_+3.5 77.7% home_-1.5 41.6%
away_+1.5 58.4% home_-0.5 52.6% away_+0.5 47.4%
home_+0.5 63.5% away_-0.5 36.5% home_+1.5 73.4%
away_-1.5 26.6% home_+3.5 88.0% away_-3.5 12.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.3% under_22.5 38.7% over_24.5 48.7%
under_24.5 51.3% over_26.5 36.5% under_26.5 63.5%
over_28.5 25.8% under_28.5 74.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.6% under_10.5 30.4% over_12.5 52.5%
under_12.5 47.5% over_14.5 36.1% under_14.5 63.9%
team_away
over_10.5 56.0% under_10.5 44.0% over_12.5 37.8%
under_12.5 62.2% over_14.5 22.9% under_14.5 77.1%
most
home 57.1% draw 6.2% away 36.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.1% away_+4.5 67.9% home_-2.5 44.3%
away_+2.5 55.7% home_-0.5 57.1% away_+0.5 42.9%
home_+0.5 63.3% away_-0.5 36.7% home_+2.5 74.7%
away_-2.5 25.4% home_+4.5 83.8% away_-4.5 16.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.1% under_6.5 23.9% over_7.5 64.7%
under_7.5 35.3% over_8.5 52.4% under_8.5 47.6%
over_9.5 40.5% under_9.5 59.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.7% under_3.5 36.3% over_4.5 46.2%
under_4.5 53.8% over_5.5 30.8% under_5.5 69.2%
team_away
over_3.5 62.1% under_3.5 38.0% over_4.5 44.5%
under_4.5 55.6% over_5.5 29.2% under_5.5 70.9%
most
home 45.0% draw 12.5% away 42.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 22.7% away_+2.5 77.3% home_-0.5 45.0%
away_+0.5 55.0% home_+0.5 57.5% away_-0.5 42.5%
home_+2.5 79.2% away_-2.5 20.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 65.6% under_2.5 34.4% over_3.5 43.7%
under_3.5 56.3% over_4.5 25.2% under_4.5 74.8%
over_5.5 12.7% under_5.5 87.3%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 50.1% under_1.5 49.9% over_2.5 23.8%
under_2.5 76.2%
team_away
over_1.5 50.6% under_1.5 49.4% over_2.5 24.2%
under_2.5 75.8%
most
home 38.3% draw 22.7% away 39.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.4% away_+1.5 80.6% home_-0.5 38.3%
away_+0.5 61.7% home_+0.5 61.0% away_-0.5 39.0%
home_+1.5 80.1% away_-1.5 20.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 54.4% under_20.5 45.6% over_22.5 39.3%
under_22.5 60.7% over_24.5 26.1% under_24.5 73.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 56.8% under_9.5 43.2% over_11.5 35.3%
under_11.5 64.7% over_13.5 18.7% under_13.5 81.3%
team_away
over_9.5 63.0% under_9.5 37.0% over_11.5 41.6%
under_11.5 58.4% over_13.5 23.7% under_13.5 76.3%
most
home 41.6% draw 7.7% away 50.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.3% away_+3.5 78.7% home_-0.5 41.6%
away_+0.5 58.4% home_+2.5 64.5% away_-2.5 35.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 16.6% no 83.4%
home
yes 8.6% no 91.5%
away
yes 8.8% no 91.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lille predictions · Paris SG predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 1LilleParis SGTrack record