Bologna vs Lazio: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 24 Aug 2026

Serie A

Bologna

LDWWD

Full time0-1Mon, 24 Aug 202617:30UK

Lazio

DWLLW

Model’s top convictions

69%

Bologna or draw

68%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Draw or Lazio

Full time2 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Bologna 0-1 Lazio

✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score

2 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Bologna at 39.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 58.9% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 52.2% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

BolognaWin probability

39.5%

Top 3 convictions

Bologna or draw68.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.45

Over 1.5 goals68.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.47

Draw or Lazio60.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Bologna at 39% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 24 August 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Bologna higher (44%) than our model does. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 41% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. The recent series reads 2 wins for Bologna, 1 draws and 2 for Lazio over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. Riccardo Orsolini drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: Bologna W2 D2 L2, Lazio W3 D1 L2. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals41.1%@ 2.43

Over 9.5 corners39.9%@ 2.51

Over 10.5 corners31.2%@ 3.21

Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals58.9%@ 1.70

Not both teams to score52.2%@ 1.92

Over 8.5 corners49.7%@ 2.01

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.8%@ 7.25

1-0 correct score11.4%@ 8.81

0-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.57

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Bologna

39.5%-4.1%

Draw

29.4%-0.1%

Lazio

31.1%+4.2%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.568.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.541.1%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes47.8%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.549.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.539.9%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.8%

Low chance

Most cornersBologna57.8%Lazio31.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.555.7%

Good chance

Over 24.543.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.532.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.6%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.568.2%2.541.1%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.568.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

BolognaLDWWD

LazioDWLLW

Last 5 meetings: Bologna 2 · 1 draws · Lazio 2 · 3.0 goals/game.

2026-03-22Bologna 0-2 Lazio

2025-12-07Lazio 1-1 Bologna

2025-03-16Bologna 5-0 Lazio

2024-11-24Lazio 3-0 Bologna

2024-02-18Lazio 1-2 Bologna

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Riccardo OrsoliniBologna · key player

To score31.1%

@ 3.22

1+ on target58.4%

@ 1.71

2+ shots68.7%

@ 1.46

Shots/90 3.44SoT/90 1.27Goals/90 0.54

Valentín CastellanosLazio · key player

To score24.7%

@ 4.05

1+ on target67.5%

@ 1.48

2+ shots82.2%

@ 1.22

Shots/90 3.67SoT/90 1.31Goals/90 0.33

Federico BernardeschiBologna · in form

To score12.9%

@ 7.75

1+ on target36.2%

@ 2.76

2+ shots38.9%

@ 2.57

Shots/90 2.93SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.3

PedroLazio · in form

To score22.7%

@ 4.41

1+ on target38.2%

@ 2.62

2+ shots28.3%

@ 3.53

Shots/90 2.73SoT/90 1.25Goals/90 0.67

Jens OdgaardBologna · in form

To score18.3%

@ 5.46

1+ on target47.6%

@ 2.10

2+ shots46.1%

@ 2.17

Shots/90 2.24SoT/90 0.93Goals/90 0.29

Loum TchaounaLazio · in form

To score4.3%

@ 23.26

1+ on target29.3%

@ 3.41

2+ shots24.8%

@ 4.03

Shots/90 3.23SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.15

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Bologna win2.202.53

Draw3.203.40

Lazio win3.503.22

Over 2.5 goals2.202.43

Under 2.5 goals1.671.70

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Bologna win2.59

Draw3.40

Lazio win3.13

Both teams to score2.09

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12

Over 1.5 goals1.47

Over 2.5 goals2.43

Over 3.5 goals4.83

Bologna most2.59

Lazio most3.13

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.61

Over 8.5 corners1.97

Over 9.5 corners2.49

Over 10.5 corners3.28

Bologna most1.73

Lazio most3.13

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29

Over 3.5 cards1.69

Over 4.5 cards2.49

Over 5.5 cards4.12

Bologna most3.02

Lazio most2.12

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.72

Over 7.5 SoT2.18

Over 8.5 SoT2.88

Over 9.5 SoT3.96

Bologna most2.00

Lazio most2.68

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.79

Over 24.5 shots2.29

Over 26.5 shots3.10

Over 28.5 shots4.42

Bologna most1.50

Lazio most3.58

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.24

Over 22.5 fouls1.43

Over 24.5 fouls1.74

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	58.0%	Over 7.5	45.9%	Over 8.5	34.8%	Over 9.5	25.3%
Most: Bologna	50.0%	Most: Lazio	37.4%
Bologna Over 4.2	37.1%	Lazio Over 4.2	28.4%

Cards

Over 2.5	77.7%	Over 3.5	59.2%	Over 4.5	40.1%
Most: Bologna	33.1%	Most: Lazio	47.2%
Bologna Over 1.8	55.7%	Lazio Over 1.8	65.5%

Bologna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Riccardo Orsolini	3.44	1.27	0.54	58.4%	68.7%	31.1%
Federico Bernardeschi	2.93	0.98	0.3	36.2%	38.9%	12.9%
Jens Odgaard	2.24	0.93	0.29	47.6%	46.1%	18.3%
Benjamín Domínguez	2.03	0.92	0.15	38.6%	29.2%	7.6%
Jonathan Rowe	2.68	0.89	0.17	43.4%	51.1%	10.3%

Lazio: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Valentín Castellanos	3.67	1.31	0.33	67.5%	82.2%	24.7%
Pedro	2.73	1.25	0.67	38.2%	28.3%	22.7%
Loum Tchaouna	3.23	1.17	0.15	29.3%	24.8%	4.3%
Gustav Isaksen	2.41	0.98	0.21	47.0%	46.3%	12.7%
Tijjani Noslin	2.61	0.92	0.29	28.0%	23.9%	9.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Bologna clean sheet	33.4%
Lazio clean sheet	29.2%
Bologna win to nil	22.9%
Lazio win to nil	18.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	38.7%	draw	29.4%	away	31.9%

double_chance

1X	68.1%	12	70.6%	X2	61.3%

dnb

home	54.8%	away	45.2%

btts

yes	47.8%	no	52.2%

clean_sheet

home	33.5%	away	29.2%

win_to_nil

home	23.0%	away	18.8%

winning_margin

home_by_1	21.5%	home_by_2	11.3%	home_by_3plus	5.8%
away_by_1	19.1%	away_by_2	9.0%	away_by_3plus	3.9%

correct_score

0-0	10.5%	0-1	10.0%	0-2	5.8%
0-3	2.1%	0-4	0.6%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	11.4%	1-1	13.8%	1-2	7.2%
1-3	2.6%	1-4	0.7%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	7.4%	2-1	8.1%	2-2	4.4%
2-3	1.6%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	3.0%	3-1	3.3%	3-2	1.8%
3-3	0.7%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	0.9%	4-1	1.0%	4-2	0.6%
4-3	0.2%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.2%	5-1	0.3%	5-2	0.1%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.3%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.8%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	89.6%	under_0.5	10.5%	over_1.5	68.2%
under_1.5	31.8%	over_2.5	41.2%	under_2.5	58.9%
over_3.5	20.7%	under_3.5	79.3%	over_4.5	8.8%
under_4.5	91.2%	over_5.5	3.2%	under_5.5	96.8%

odd_even

odd	48.2%	even	51.8%

team_home

over_0.5	70.8%	under_0.5	29.2%	over_1.5	34.9%
under_1.5	65.1%	over_2.5	12.8%	under_2.5	87.2%

team_away

over_0.5	66.5%	under_0.5	33.5%	over_1.5	29.9%
under_1.5	70.1%	over_2.5	9.9%	under_2.5	90.1%

most

home	38.7%	draw	29.4%	away	31.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	5.8%	away_+2.5	94.2%	home_-1.5	17.2%
away_+1.5	82.8%	home_-0.5	38.7%	away_+0.5	61.3%
home_+0.5	68.1%	away_-0.5	31.9%	home_+1.5	87.1%
away_-1.5	12.9%	home_+2.5	96.1%	away_-2.5	3.9%

total_exact

exact_0	10.5%	exact_1	21.4%	exact_2	27.0%
exact_3	20.5%	exact_4	11.9%	exact_5	5.6%
exact_6	2.2%	exact_7plus	1.0%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	32.0%	draw	46.6%	away	21.4%

total

over_0.5	62.8%	under_0.5	37.2%	over_1.5	26.0%
under_1.5	74.0%	over_2.5	7.8%	under_2.5	92.2%

btts

yes	14.9%	no	85.2%

total_exact

exact_0	37.2%	exact_1	36.8%	exact_2	18.2%
exact_3	6.0%	exact_4plus	1.8%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	30.3%	draw	37.8%	away	31.9%

total

over_0.5	76.1%	under_0.5	24.0%	over_1.5	41.8%
under_1.5	58.2%	over_2.5	17.4%	under_2.5	82.6%

btts

yes	26.1%	no	73.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	23.7%	H/D	5.9%	H/A	2.4%
D/H	14.1%	D/D	17.6%	D/A	14.9%
A/H	1.6%	A/D	4.0%	A/A	15.8%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	62.0%	under_7.5	38.0%	over_8.5	50.8%
under_8.5	49.2%	over_9.5	40.1%	under_9.5	59.9%
over_10.5	30.5%	under_10.5	69.5%	over_11.5	22.4%
under_11.5	77.6%	over_12.5	16.0%	under_12.5	84.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	67.5%	under_3.5	32.5%	over_4.5	53.2%
under_4.5	46.8%	over_5.5	39.9%	under_5.5	60.2%

team_away

over_3.5	48.9%	under_3.5	51.1%	over_4.5	33.5%
under_4.5	66.5%	over_5.5	21.6%	under_5.5	78.4%

most

home	57.9%	draw	10.1%	away	32.0%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.0%	away_+3.5	72.0%	home_-1.5	47.3%
away_+1.5	52.7%	home_-0.5	57.9%	away_+0.5	42.1%
home_+0.5	68.0%	away_-0.5	32.0%	home_+1.5	76.9%
away_-1.5	23.1%	home_+3.5	89.6%	away_-3.5	10.4%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	55.7%	under_22.5	44.3%	over_24.5	43.6%
under_24.5	56.4%	over_26.5	32.3%	under_26.5	67.7%
over_28.5	22.6%	under_28.5	77.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	71.1%	under_10.5	28.9%	over_12.5	55.4%
under_12.5	44.6%	over_14.5	39.9%	under_14.5	60.1%

team_away

over_10.5	43.9%	under_10.5	56.1%	over_12.5	27.5%
under_12.5	72.5%	over_14.5	15.6%	under_14.5	84.4%

most

home	66.6%	draw	5.5%	away	27.9%

handicap

home_-4.5	42.2%	away_+4.5	57.8%	home_-2.5	54.6%
away_+2.5	45.4%	home_-0.5	66.6%	away_+0.5	33.4%
home_+0.5	72.1%	away_-0.5	27.9%	home_+2.5	81.5%
away_-2.5	18.5%	home_+4.5	88.7%	away_-4.5	11.3%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	58.0%	under_6.5	42.0%	over_7.5	45.9%
under_7.5	54.1%	over_8.5	34.8%	under_8.5	65.3%
over_9.5	25.3%	under_9.5	74.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	52.9%	under_3.5	47.1%	over_4.5	37.1%
under_4.5	62.9%	over_5.5	24.5%	under_5.5	75.5%

team_away

over_3.5	43.7%	under_3.5	56.3%	over_4.5	28.4%
under_4.5	71.6%	over_5.5	17.2%	under_5.5	82.8%

most

home	50.0%	draw	12.6%	away	37.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	26.6%	away_+2.5	73.5%	home_-0.5	50.0%
away_+0.5	50.0%	home_+0.5	62.6%	away_-0.5	37.4%
home_+2.5	83.0%	away_-2.5	17.0%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	77.7%	under_2.5	22.3%	over_3.5	59.2%
under_3.5	40.8%	over_4.5	40.1%	under_4.5	59.9%
over_5.5	24.3%	under_5.5	75.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	55.7%	under_1.5	44.3%	over_2.5	29.3%
under_2.5	70.7%

team_away

over_1.5	65.5%	under_1.5	34.5%	over_2.5	39.4%
under_2.5	60.6%

most

home	33.1%	draw	19.7%	away	47.2%

handicap

home_-1.5	17.4%	away_+1.5	82.6%	home_-0.5	33.1%
away_+0.5	66.9%	home_+0.5	52.8%	away_-0.5	47.2%
home_+1.5	71.5%	away_-1.5	28.5%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	80.9%	under_20.5	19.1%	over_22.5	70.1%
under_22.5	29.9%	over_24.5	57.5%	under_24.5	42.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	78.0%	under_9.5	22.0%	over_11.5	60.9%
under_11.5	39.1%	over_13.5	42.7%	under_13.5	57.3%

team_away

over_9.5	78.0%	under_9.5	22.0%	over_11.5	60.8%
under_11.5	39.2%	over_13.5	42.6%	under_13.5	57.4%

most

home	46.8%	draw	6.6%	away	46.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.3%	away_+3.5	71.7%	home_-0.5	46.8%
away_+0.5	53.2%	home_+2.5	66.1%	away_-2.5	34.0%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	32.1%	no	67.9%

home

yes	16.6%	no	83.4%

away

yes	18.6%	no	81.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Bologna predictions · Lazio predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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