Parma vs Cagliari: model prediction
Serie ADraw or Cagliari
Over 1.5 goals
Parma or draw
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Cagliari at 36.1%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 62.5% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 55.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Parma or Cagliari? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Little between these two in the data. Cagliari at 36% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 22 August 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Cagliari than the market (30%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 38% with both teams to score at 45%. The run in: Parma arrive W3 D0 L3, Cagliari W3 D1 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Parma, 1 draws and 4 for Cagliari, averaging 3.8 goals a game. Conditions could matter: the forecast says 28 degrees of heat. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.36, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
32.9%-5.2%
31.0%-0.5%
36.1%+5.7%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.36, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Parma 0 · 1 draws · Cagliari 4 · 3.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
Parma
Cagliari28.9%50.0%
39.5%50.0%
34.2%21.1%
League averages this season: 2.43 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 45%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 13.16
@ 5.29
@ 8.06
@ 5.85
@ 2.78
@ 3.28
@ 4.13
@ 1.81
@ 1.39
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 62.6% | Over 7.5 | 50.7% | Over 8.5 | 39.5% | Over 9.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Parma | 47.3% | Most: Cagliari | 40.5% | ||||
| Parma Over 4.2 | 38.5% | Cagliari Over 4.2 | 33.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 67.8% | Over 3.5 | 46.6% | Over 4.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Parma | 29.0% | Most: Cagliari | 49.7% | ||
| Parma Over 1.8 | 43.9% | Cagliari Over 1.8 | 59.4% |
Cagliari: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Pavoletti | 3.75 | 1.3 | 0.49 | 18.9% | 12.4% | 7.6% |
| Gennaro Borrelli | 2.14 | 0.86 | 0.36 | 36.0% | 30.5% | 17.1% |
| Roberto Piccoli | 2.65 | 0.84 | 0.29 | 55.2% | 71.9% | 24.2% |
| Mattia Felici | 1.31 | 0.83 | 0.14 | 31.3% | 12.0% | 6.1% |
| Semih Kiliçsoy | 1.57 | 0.74 | 0.37 | 30.5% | 18.1% | 16.6% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Parma clean sheet | 33.0% |
|---|---|
| Cagliari clean sheet | 33.9% |
| Parma win to nil | 21.1% |
| Cagliari win to nil | 22.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 34.0% | draw | 30.5% | away | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 64.5% | 12 | 69.5% | X2 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 48.9% | away | 51.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 44.9% | no | 55.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 33.0% | away | 34.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.1% | away | 22.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.3% | home_by_2 | 9.6% | home_by_3plus | 4.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.8% | away_by_2 | 10.1% | away_by_3plus | 4.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 11.9% | 0-1 | 11.7% | 0-2 | 6.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.6% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | 1-1 | 14.1% | 1-2 | 7.4% |
| 1-3 | 2.8% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 2-1 | 7.2% | 2-2 | 4.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.4% | 3-1 | 2.6% | 3-2 | 1.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.5% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 0.7% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 14.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 88.1% | under_0.5 | 11.9% | over_1.5 | 65.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 35.1% | over_2.5 | 37.5% | under_2.5 | 62.5% |
| over_3.5 | 17.9% | under_3.5 | 82.1% | over_4.5 | 7.2% |
| under_4.5 | 92.8% | over_5.5 | 2.5% | under_5.5 | 97.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.0% | even | 52.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 66.1% | under_0.5 | 34.0% | over_1.5 | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.6% | over_2.5 | 9.6% | under_2.5 | 90.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 67.0% | under_0.5 | 33.0% | over_1.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.5% | over_2.5 | 10.2% | under_2.5 | 89.8% |
most
| home | 34.0% | draw | 30.5% | away | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.2% | away_+2.5 | 95.9% | home_-1.5 | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.3% | home_-0.5 | 34.0% | away_+0.5 | 66.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.5% | away_-0.5 | 35.5% | home_+1.5 | 85.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.7% | home_+2.5 | 95.4% | away_-2.5 | 4.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 11.9% | exact_1 | 23.2% | exact_2 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 19.6% | exact_4 | 10.7% | exact_5 | 4.7% |
| exact_6 | 1.7% | exact_7plus | 0.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 22.1% | draw | 53.5% | away | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 53.6% | under_0.5 | 46.4% | over_1.5 | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 82.1% | over_2.5 | 4.3% | under_2.5 | 95.7% |
btts
| yes | 10.1% | no | 89.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 46.4% | exact_1 | 35.6% | exact_2 | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 3.5% | exact_4plus | 0.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.7% | draw | 39.0% | away | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.3% | under_0.5 | 25.7% | over_1.5 | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.6% | over_2.5 | 15.7% | under_2.5 | 84.3% |
btts
| yes | 24.3% | no | 75.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 16.5% | H/D | 4.1% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.0% | D/D | 20.8% | D/A | 15.7% |
| A/H | 1.9% | A/D | 4.8% | A/A | 17.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 60.2% | under_7.5 | 39.8% | over_8.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 51.1% | over_9.5 | 38.2% | under_9.5 | 61.8% |
| over_10.5 | 28.7% | under_10.5 | 71.3% | over_11.5 | 20.9% |
| under_11.5 | 79.1% | over_12.5 | 14.7% | under_12.5 | 85.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 64.1% | under_3.5 | 35.9% | over_4.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.6% | over_5.5 | 36.0% | under_5.5 | 64.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.6% | under_3.5 | 49.4% | over_4.5 | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.8% | over_5.5 | 23.0% | under_5.5 | 77.0% |
most
| home | 54.2% | draw | 10.5% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.5% | away_+3.5 | 75.5% | home_-1.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.6% | home_-0.5 | 54.2% | away_+0.5 | 45.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.7% | away_-0.5 | 35.3% | home_+1.5 | 74.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.9% | home_+3.5 | 88.0% | away_-3.5 | 12.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 59.6% | under_22.5 | 40.5% | over_24.5 | 47.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.4% | over_26.5 | 36.1% | under_26.5 | 63.9% |
| over_28.5 | 26.0% | under_28.5 | 74.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.4% | under_10.5 | 31.6% | over_12.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 47.7% | over_14.5 | 36.8% | under_14.5 | 63.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.6% | under_10.5 | 46.5% | over_12.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.5% | over_14.5 | 22.7% | under_14.5 | 77.4% |
most
| home | 58.0% | draw | 5.9% | away | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.1% | away_+4.5 | 65.9% | home_-2.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 54.1% | home_-0.5 | 58.0% | away_+0.5 | 42.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.9% | away_-0.5 | 36.1% | home_+2.5 | 74.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.4% | home_+4.5 | 83.3% | away_-4.5 | 16.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 62.6% | under_6.5 | 37.4% | over_7.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 49.3% | over_8.5 | 39.5% | under_8.5 | 60.5% |
| over_9.5 | 29.5% | under_9.5 | 70.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 54.2% | under_3.5 | 45.8% | over_4.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.5% | over_5.5 | 25.7% | under_5.5 | 74.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.3% | under_3.5 | 50.7% | over_4.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.3% | over_5.5 | 21.5% | under_5.5 | 78.5% |
most
| home | 47.3% | draw | 12.2% | away | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.0% | away_+2.5 | 75.0% | home_-0.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.7% | home_+0.5 | 59.5% | away_-0.5 | 40.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 80.2% | away_-2.5 | 19.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 67.8% | under_2.5 | 32.2% | over_3.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 53.4% | over_4.5 | 28.0% | under_4.5 | 72.0% |
| over_5.5 | 14.9% | under_5.5 | 85.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 43.9% | under_1.5 | 56.1% | over_2.5 | 19.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 80.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 59.4% | under_1.5 | 40.6% | over_2.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.1% |
most
| home | 29.0% | draw | 21.3% | away | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 13.5% | away_+1.5 | 86.5% | home_-0.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 71.0% | home_+0.5 | 50.3% | away_-0.5 | 49.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.9% | away_-1.5 | 29.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 77.8% | under_20.5 | 22.2% | over_22.5 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 34.0% | over_24.5 | 53.0% | under_24.5 | 47.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 70.5% | under_9.5 | 29.5% | over_11.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 48.7% | over_13.5 | 33.2% | under_13.5 | 66.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 80.0% | under_9.5 | 20.0% | over_11.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.4% | over_13.5 | 45.6% | under_13.5 | 54.4% |
most
| home | 37.9% | draw | 6.5% | away | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.9% | away_+3.5 | 79.1% | home_-0.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.1% | home_+2.5 | 57.7% | away_-2.5 | 42.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 20.5% | no | 79.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.7% | no | 89.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 11.0% | no | 89.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Parma predictions · Cagliari predictions · Serie A
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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