Ath Madrid vs Malaga prediction & probabilities (2026-08-19)

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Ath Madrid vs Malaga: model prediction

La Liga
Ath Madrid

WLWWL

Wed, 19 Aug 202610:00UK
Malaga

WLLLL

Model’s top convictions

90%

Ath Madrid or draw

81%

Over 1.5 goals

62%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Ath MadridWin probability
72.8%
Top 3 convictions

Ath Madrid or draw90.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.11
Over 1.5 goals81.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Over 8.5 corners61.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Ath Madrid, that gap is the story." Ath Madrid go into this La Liga meeting with Malaga on 19 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 73%. No strong lean on goals (58% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Fatigue may matter, with Ath Madrid 2927 days shorter on recovery than Malaga. As a promoted side, Malaga carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Ath Madrid arrive W4 D0 L2, Malaga W1 D0 L5. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 5 wins for Ath Madrid, 0 draws and 0 for Malaga at 2.2 goals per match. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.8%@ 2.45
Over 11.5 corners31.5%@ 3.17
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals58.4%@ 1.71
Over 9.5 corners51.1%@ 1.96
Both teams to score50.7%@ 1.97
Random finds

2-0 correct score11.7%@ 8.57
1-0 correct score10.2%@ 9.84
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.31

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Ath Madrid

72.8%

Draw

17.2%

Malaga

10.0%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.0%

High probability

Over 2.558.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes50.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.1%

Good chance

Over 10.540.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersAth Madrid 62.0% · Malaga 27.9%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.0%2.558.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.0%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

Ath MadridWLWWL
MalagaWLLLL

Last 5 meetings: Ath Madrid 5 · 0 draws · Malaga 0 · 2.2 goals/game.

2018-02-10Malaga 0-1 Ath Madrid
2017-09-16Ath Madrid 1-0 Malaga
2017-04-01Malaga 0-2 Ath Madrid
2016-10-29Ath Madrid 4-2 Malaga
2016-04-23Ath Madrid 1-0 Malaga

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ath Madrid win1.47
Draw5.13
Malaga win8.08
Both teams to score1.97

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.71
Over 3.5 goals2.78
Ath Madrid most1.47
Malaga most8.08

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.55
Over 9.5 corners1.90
Over 10.5 corners2.45
Ath Madrid most1.61
Malaga most3.58

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.28
Over 3.5 cards1.67
Over 4.5 cards2.44
Over 5.5 cards4.00
Ath Madrid most2.66
Malaga most2.35

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.32
Over 7.5 SoT1.56
Over 8.5 SoT1.95
Over 9.5 SoT2.55
Ath Madrid most1.52
Malaga most4.29

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.06
Over 26.5 shots2.76
Over 28.5 shots3.92
Ath Madrid most1.49
Malaga most3.69

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.52
Over 22.5 fouls1.95
Over 24.5 fouls2.69
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.7% Over 7.5 63.9% Over 8.5 51.3% Over 9.5 39.2%
Most: Ath Madrid 65.6% Most: Malaga 23.3%
Ath Madrid Over 4.2 59.5% Malaga Over 4.2 28.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 78.3% Over 3.5 59.9% Over 4.5 40.9%
Most: Ath Madrid 37.6% Most: Malaga 42.6%
Ath Madrid Over 1.8 59.6% Malaga Over 1.8 63.0%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 68.2% draw 19.5% away 12.4%
double_chance
1X 87.6% 12 80.5% X2 31.9%
dnb
home 84.6% away 15.4%
btts
yes 50.7% no 49.3%
clean_sheet
home 43.5% away 11.1%
win_to_nil
home 38.3% away 5.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.3% home_by_2 20.6% home_by_3plus 24.2%
away_by_1 8.5% away_by_2 2.9% away_by_3plus 0.9%
correct_score
0-0 5.3% 0-1 3.6% 0-2 1.7%
0-3 0.5% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 10.2% 1-1 9.3% 1-2 3.7%
1-3 1.0% 1-4 0.2% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 11.7% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 4.0%
2-3 1.1% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 8.6% 3-1 7.1% 3-2 3.0%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 4.7% 4-1 3.9% 4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 2.1% 5-1 1.7% 5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.5%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 11.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.7% under_0.5 5.3% over_1.5 81.0%
under_1.5 19.0% over_2.5 58.4% under_2.5 41.6%
over_3.5 36.0% under_3.5 64.0% over_4.5 19.0%
under_4.5 81.0% over_5.5 8.7% under_5.5 91.3%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 88.9% under_0.5 11.1% over_1.5 64.6%
under_1.5 35.4% over_2.5 37.8% under_2.5 62.2%
team_away
over_0.5 56.5% under_0.5 43.5% over_1.5 20.3%
under_1.5 79.7% over_2.5 5.2% under_2.5 94.8%
most
home 68.2% draw 19.5% away 12.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.2% away_+2.5 75.8% home_-1.5 44.8%
away_+1.5 55.2% home_-0.5 68.2% away_+0.5 31.9%
home_+0.5 87.6% away_-0.5 12.4% home_+1.5 96.2%
away_-1.5 3.8% home_+2.5 99.1% away_-2.5 0.9%
total_exact
exact_0 5.3% exact_1 13.7% exact_2 22.6%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.0% exact_5 10.3%
exact_6 5.2% exact_7plus 3.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.8% draw 38.2% away 19.1%
total
over_0.5 73.7% under_0.5 26.3% over_1.5 38.6%
under_1.5 61.4% over_2.5 15.1% under_2.5 84.9%
btts
yes 21.8% no 78.2%
total_exact
exact_0 26.3% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 10.5% exact_4plus 4.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 45.8% draw 34.8% away 19.4%
total
over_0.5 78.4% under_0.5 21.6% over_1.5 45.3%
under_1.5 54.8% over_2.5 19.9% under_2.5 80.1%
btts
yes 26.2% no 73.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 36.9% H/D 4.6% H/A 1.3%
D/H 17.5% D/D 13.3% D/A 7.4%
A/H 2.9% A/D 4.7% A/A 11.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.8% under_7.5 24.2% over_8.5 64.7%
under_8.5 35.3% over_9.5 52.7% under_9.5 47.3%
over_10.5 40.9% under_10.5 59.1% over_11.5 30.2%
under_11.5 69.8% over_12.5 21.3% under_12.5 78.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.2% under_3.5 20.8% over_4.5 65.5%
under_4.5 34.5% over_5.5 50.7% under_5.5 49.3%
team_away
over_3.5 56.8% under_3.5 43.2% over_4.5 39.3%
under_4.5 60.7% over_5.5 24.9% under_5.5 75.1%
most
home 62.2% draw 9.9% away 28.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.8% away_+3.5 69.2% home_-1.5 51.4%
away_+1.5 48.6% home_-0.5 62.2% away_+0.5 37.9%
home_+0.5 72.0% away_-0.5 28.0% home_+1.5 80.5%
away_-1.5 19.6% home_+3.5 92.0% away_-3.5 8.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.3% under_22.5 38.7% over_24.5 48.5%
under_24.5 51.5% over_26.5 36.3% under_26.5 63.7%
over_28.5 25.5% under_28.5 74.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.3% under_10.5 24.7% over_12.5 59.4%
under_12.5 40.6% over_14.5 42.9% under_14.5 57.1%
team_away
over_10.5 48.0% under_10.5 52.0% over_12.5 30.1%
under_12.5 69.9% over_14.5 16.9% under_14.5 83.1%
most
home 67.3% draw 5.6% away 27.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 42.0% away_+4.5 58.0% home_-2.5 54.9%
away_+2.5 45.1% home_-0.5 67.3% away_+0.5 32.7%
home_+0.5 72.9% away_-0.5 27.1% home_+2.5 82.5%
away_-2.5 17.5% home_+4.5 89.6% away_-4.5 10.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.7% under_6.5 24.3% over_7.5 63.9%
under_7.5 36.1% over_8.5 51.3% under_8.5 48.7%
over_9.5 39.2% under_9.5 60.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.2% under_3.5 24.8% over_4.5 59.5%
under_4.5 40.5% over_5.5 43.5% under_5.5 56.5%
team_away
over_3.5 46.0% under_3.5 54.0% over_4.5 28.2%
under_4.5 71.8% over_5.5 15.5% under_5.5 84.5%
most
home 65.6% draw 11.1% away 23.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 40.4% away_+2.5 59.6% home_-0.5 65.6%
away_+0.5 34.4% home_+0.5 76.7% away_-0.5 23.3%
home_+2.5 91.6% away_-2.5 8.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 78.3% under_2.5 21.7% over_3.5 59.9%
under_3.5 40.1% over_4.5 40.9% under_4.5 59.1%
over_5.5 25.0% under_5.5 75.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 59.7% under_1.5 40.4% over_2.5 33.2%
under_2.5 66.8%
team_away
over_1.5 63.0% under_1.5 37.0% over_2.5 36.7%
under_2.5 63.3%
most
home 37.7% draw 19.8% away 42.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.9% away_+1.5 79.1% home_-0.5 37.7%
away_+0.5 62.4% home_+0.5 57.5% away_-0.5 42.6%
home_+1.5 75.2% away_-1.5 24.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 65.7% under_20.5 34.3% over_22.5 51.2%
under_22.5 48.8% over_24.5 37.2% under_24.5 62.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 67.8% under_9.5 32.2% over_11.5 47.2%
under_11.5 52.8% over_13.5 28.7% under_13.5 71.3%
team_away
over_9.5 67.2% under_9.5 32.8% over_11.5 46.6%
under_11.5 53.4% over_13.5 28.1% under_13.5 71.9%
most
home 46.8% draw 7.4% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.3% away_+3.5 73.7% home_-0.5 46.8%
away_+0.5 53.2% home_+2.5 68.2% away_-2.5 31.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.0% no 83.0%
home
yes 11.4% no 88.6%
away
yes 6.3% no 93.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ath Madrid predictions · Malaga predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

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