RC Deportivo vs Elche: model prediction
La LigaRC Deportivo
Mon, 17 Aug 202610:00UK
ElcheLDLWD
Model’s top convictions
75%
Over 1.5 goals
69%
RC Deportivo or draw
59%
Draw or Elche
No bet
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model’s best bet
RC DeportivoWin probability
40.9%
Top 3 convictions
Over 1.5 goals75.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
RC Deportivo or draw68.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Draw or Elche59.1%Good chancePays @ 1.69
Model read
▾
"RC Deportivo or Elche? We publish probabilities, not certainties." RC Deportivo versus Elche in the La Liga on 17 August 2026 is finely balanced. RC Deportivo edge it at 41%, but the gap to the field is slim. Totals sit close to the fence: 50% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. RC Deportivo are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.
Value & higher-risk angles
High risk
Over 9.5 corners44.6%@ 2.24
Over 10.5 corners34.5%@ 2.90
Elche win31.5%@ 3.18
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners55.6%@ 1.80
Both teams to score54.8%@ 1.82
Over 2.5 goals50.0%@ 2.00
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.76
1-0 correct score9.1%@ 10.95
2-1 correct score8.7%@ 11.53
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
RC Deportivo
40.9%
Draw
27.7%
Elche
31.5%
Model
Goals markets
★ StrongestOver 1.575.3%
Strong chance
Over 2.550.0%
Good chance
BTTS · Yes54.8%
Good chance
Corners markets
Over 8.555.6%
Good chance
Over 9.544.6%
Reasonable chance
Over 10.534.5%
Toss-up
Over 11.525.7%
Low chance
Most cornersRC Deportivo 60.7% · Elche 28.6%
Totals line guide
0.5·1.575.3%2.550.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.575.3%
Discipline: NO_ODDS.
Form & head-to-head
ElcheLDLWD
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Rafa MirElche · key player
To score25.5%
@ 3.92
1+ on target73.7%
@ 1.36
2+ shots72.5%
@ 1.38
Shots/90 3.39SoT/90 1.77Goals/90 0.39
André SilvaElche · in form
To score27.4%
@ 3.65
1+ on target59.6%
@ 1.68
2+ shots54.8%
@ 1.82
Shots/90 2.76SoT/90 1.36Goals/90 0.48
Alvaro RodríguezElche · in form
To score18.8%
@ 5.32
1+ on target50.6%
@ 1.98
2+ shots64.0%
@ 1.56
Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.29
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
RC Deportivo win2.50
Draw3.69
Elche win3.03
Both teams to score1.82
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.33
Over 2.5 goals2.00
Over 3.5 goals3.57
RC Deportivo most2.50
Elche most3.03
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.73
Over 9.5 corners2.21
Over 10.5 corners2.97
RC Deportivo most1.64
Elche most3.49
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.55
Over 4.5 cards2.18
Over 5.5 cards3.41
RC Deportivo most2.78
Elche most2.23
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.66
Over 8.5 SoT2.11
Over 9.5 SoT2.83
RC Deportivo most1.55
Elche most4.18
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.71
Over 24.5 shots2.20
Over 26.5 shots2.99
Over 28.5 shots4.34
RC Deportivo most1.45
Elche most3.91
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.18
Over 22.5 fouls1.34
Over 24.5 fouls1.60
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.7% | Over 7.5 | 60.3% | Over 8.5 | 47.4% | Over 9.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: RC Deportivo | 64.6% | Most: Elche | 23.9% | ||||
| RC Deportivo Over 4.2 | 56.3% | Elche Over 4.2 | 26.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 81.5% | Over 3.5 | 64.5% | Over 4.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: RC Deportivo | 36.0% | Most: Elche | 44.9% | ||
| RC Deportivo Over 1.8 | 61.5% | Elche Over 1.8 | 67.4% |
Elche: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Mir | 3.39 | 1.77 | 0.39 | 73.7% | 72.5% | 25.5% |
| André Silva | 2.76 | 1.36 | 0.48 | 59.6% | 54.8% | 27.4% |
| Alvaro Rodríguez | 3.03 | 0.98 | 0.29 | 50.6% | 64.0% | 18.8% |
| Hector Fort | 2.26 | 0.94 | 0.38 | 30.0% | 21.2% | 13.4% |
| John Donald | 0.85 | 0.28 | 0.14 | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 40.0% | draw | 27.1% | away | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 67.0% | 12 | 72.9% | X2 | 60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 54.8% | away | 45.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 54.8% | no | 45.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 28.3% | away | 24.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 20.8% | away | 16.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.8% | home_by_2 | 12.0% | home_by_3plus | 7.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.5% | away_by_2 | 9.6% | away_by_3plus | 4.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 0-1 | 8.1% | 0-2 | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.3% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 1-3 | 3.3% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.9% | 2-1 | 8.7% | 2-2 | 5.5% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.3% | 3-1 | 4.1% | 3-2 | 2.6% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.2% | 4-1 | 1.5% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.5% | under_0.5 | 7.5% | over_1.5 | 75.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.7% | over_2.5 | 50.0% | under_2.5 | 50.0% |
| over_3.5 | 28.0% | under_3.5 | 72.0% | over_4.5 | 13.3% |
| under_4.5 | 86.7% | over_5.5 | 5.5% | under_5.5 | 94.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 75.6% | under_0.5 | 24.4% | over_1.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.7% | over_2.5 | 17.0% | under_2.5 | 83.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.7% | under_0.5 | 28.3% | over_1.5 | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.1% | over_2.5 | 13.4% | under_2.5 | 86.6% |
most
| home | 40.0% | draw | 27.1% | away | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.2% | away_+2.5 | 92.8% | home_-1.5 | 19.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 80.8% | home_-0.5 | 40.0% | away_+0.5 | 60.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.0% | away_-0.5 | 33.0% | home_+1.5 | 85.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.5% | home_+2.5 | 95.1% | away_-2.5 | 4.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.5% | exact_1 | 17.2% | exact_2 | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.0% | exact_4 | 14.7% | exact_5 | 7.9% |
| exact_6 | 3.5% | exact_7plus | 2.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 38.8% | draw | 40.8% | away | 20.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.5% | under_0.5 | 29.5% | over_1.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.6% | over_2.5 | 12.5% | under_2.5 | 87.5% |
btts
| yes | 19.7% | no | 80.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.5% | exact_1 | 36.0% | exact_2 | 22.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.9% | exact_4plus | 3.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 42.9% | draw | 34.4% | away | 22.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.9% | under_0.5 | 20.1% | over_1.5 | 47.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.4% | over_2.5 | 21.8% | under_2.5 | 78.3% |
btts
| yes | 29.0% | no | 71.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 32.2% | H/D | 4.9% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.5% | D/D | 14.1% | D/A | 9.3% |
| A/H | 2.9% | A/D | 4.7% | A/A | 12.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.8% | under_7.5 | 30.2% | over_8.5 | 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 42.4% | over_9.5 | 45.2% | under_9.5 | 54.8% |
| over_10.5 | 33.7% | under_10.5 | 66.3% | over_11.5 | 23.8% |
| under_11.5 | 76.2% | over_12.5 | 16.0% | under_12.5 | 84.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.2% | under_3.5 | 24.8% | over_4.5 | 60.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.8% | over_5.5 | 44.9% | under_5.5 | 55.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 52.9% | under_3.5 | 47.1% | over_4.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.6% | over_5.5 | 21.6% | under_5.5 | 78.4% |
most
| home | 60.9% | draw | 10.4% | away | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.5% | away_+3.5 | 71.5% | home_-1.5 | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.3% | home_-0.5 | 60.9% | away_+0.5 | 39.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.3% | away_-0.5 | 28.7% | home_+1.5 | 80.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 19.8% | home_+3.5 | 92.1% | away_-3.5 | 7.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.4% | under_22.5 | 41.6% | over_24.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.5% | over_26.5 | 33.4% | under_26.5 | 66.6% |
| over_28.5 | 23.0% | under_28.5 | 77.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.6% | under_10.5 | 25.5% | over_12.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.5% | over_14.5 | 42.0% | under_14.5 | 58.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 44.5% | under_10.5 | 55.5% | over_12.5 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 73.0% | over_14.5 | 14.6% | under_14.5 | 85.4% |
most
| home | 68.8% | draw | 5.6% | away | 25.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 43.4% | away_+4.5 | 56.6% | home_-2.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 43.6% | home_-0.5 | 68.8% | away_+0.5 | 31.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.4% | away_-0.5 | 25.6% | home_+2.5 | 83.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 16.2% | home_+4.5 | 90.6% | away_-4.5 | 9.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.7% | under_6.5 | 27.3% | over_7.5 | 60.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.7% | over_8.5 | 47.4% | under_8.5 | 52.6% |
| over_9.5 | 35.4% | under_9.5 | 64.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.6% | under_3.5 | 27.4% | over_4.5 | 56.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.7% | over_5.5 | 40.1% | under_5.5 | 59.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 43.9% | under_3.5 | 56.1% | over_4.5 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.6% | over_5.5 | 14.2% | under_5.5 | 85.8% |
most
| home | 64.6% | draw | 11.5% | away | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 38.9% | away_+2.5 | 61.1% | home_-0.5 | 64.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 35.4% | home_+0.5 | 76.1% | away_-0.5 | 23.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 91.5% | away_-2.5 | 8.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 81.5% | under_2.5 | 18.5% | over_3.5 | 64.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 35.5% | over_4.5 | 45.9% | under_4.5 | 54.1% |
| over_5.5 | 29.3% | under_5.5 | 70.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 61.5% | under_1.5 | 38.5% | over_2.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 67.4% | under_1.5 | 32.6% | over_2.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 58.4% |
most
| home | 36.0% | draw | 19.1% | away | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.1% | away_+1.5 | 79.9% | home_-0.5 | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.0% | home_+0.5 | 55.1% | away_-0.5 | 44.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.8% | away_-1.5 | 27.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 84.8% | under_20.5 | 15.2% | over_22.5 | 74.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 25.2% | over_24.5 | 62.5% | under_24.5 | 37.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 81.7% | under_9.5 | 18.3% | over_11.5 | 65.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 34.8% | over_13.5 | 46.4% | under_13.5 | 53.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 81.0% | under_9.5 | 19.0% | over_11.5 | 64.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 35.9% | over_13.5 | 45.3% | under_13.5 | 54.7% |
most
| home | 47.4% | draw | 6.7% | away | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.4% | away_+3.5 | 71.6% | home_-0.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.6% | home_+2.5 | 67.1% | away_-2.5 | 32.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 21.7% | no | 78.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 9.9% | no | 90.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 13.1% | no | 86.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).
More: RC Deportivo predictions · Elche predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.