Fulham vs Chelsea: model prediction
Premier League
Over 1.5 goals
Fulham or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Fulham at 38.4%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 50.9% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 55.6% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Fulham at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 24 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Our number sits above the market's 26% for Fulham. The gap itself is information. • Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. • Team news worth noting: Fulham have Andersen suspended, Cairney ruled out, Kevin, Kenny Tete ruled out; Chelsea have Henderson a doubt. • For shots markets, Rodrigo Muniz is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Fulham against W1 D1 L4 for Chelsea. The recent series reads 2 wins for Fulham, 0 draws and 3 for Chelsea over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
38.4%+12.7%
26.1%+1.9%
35.5%-14.6%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Fulham 2 · 0 draws · Chelsea 3 · 2.4 goals/game.
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 6.17
@ 2.76
@ 2.51
@ 3.39
@ 1.47
@ 1.37
@ 11.76
@ 2.38
@ 3.79
@ 3.00
@ 1.44
@ 1.24
@ 4.27
@ 1.99
@ 1.67
@ 5.05
@ 1.64
@ 1.40
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
- AndersenFulhamSuspended0% to play
- CairneyFulhamOut0% to play
- Kevin, Kenny TeteFulhamOut
- HendersonChelseaDoubtful75% to play
- WelbeckChelseaDoubtful75% to play
- FofanaChelseaSuspended0% to play
- AnselminoChelseaDoubtful25% to play
- Levi Colwill, Trevoh Chalobah, Filip Jorgensen, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Reece James, Benoit BadiashileChelseaOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.3% | Over 7.5 | 57.1% | Over 8.5 | 44.9% | Over 9.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Fulham | 49.9% | Most: Chelsea | 37.6% | ||||
| Fulham Over 4.2 | 44.3% | Chelsea Over 4.2 | 35.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 77.1% | Over 3.5 | 57.9% | Over 4.5 | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Fulham | 33.3% | Most: Chelsea | 46.5% | ||
| Fulham Over 1.8 | 55.4% | Chelsea Over 1.8 | 64.7% |
Fulham: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Muniz | 3.42 | 1.12 | 0.44 | 36.2% | 39.9% | 16.2% |
| Reiss Nelson | 2.02 | 1.1 | 0.18 | 42.0% | 26.4% | 8.5% |
| Harry Wilson | 2.8 | 0.97 | 0.37 | 50.3% | 59.9% | 23.4% |
| Raúl Jiménez | 3.21 | 0.95 | 0.4 | 49.6% | 67.2% | 25.0% |
| Kevin | 2.25 | 0.9 | 0.09 | 32.0% | 25.1% | 3.8% |
Chelsea: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson | 3.04 | 1.34 | 0.41 | 68.0% | 73.0% | 29.5% |
| Cole Palmer | 3.29 | 1.28 | 0.44 | 69.3% | 80.6% | 33.3% |
| Noni Madueke | 3.41 | 1.28 | 0.3 | 60.9% | 71.3% | 19.8% |
| Christopher Nkunku | 2.66 | 1.22 | 0.33 | 34.5% | 23.6% | 10.8% |
| Liam Delap | 3.05 | 0.93 | 0.08 | 32.5% | 36.9% | 3.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Fulham clean sheet | 26.2% |
|---|---|
| Chelsea clean sheet | 25.3% |
| Fulham win to nil | 18.9% |
| Chelsea win to nil | 18.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 37.3% | draw | 26.9% | away | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 64.2% | 12 | 73.1% | X2 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 51.0% | away | 49.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.6% | no | 44.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 26.3% | away | 25.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 19.0% | away | 18.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.9% | home_by_2 | 11.1% | home_by_3plus | 6.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.4% | away_by_2 | 10.6% | away_by_3plus | 5.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 0-1 | 8.3% | 0-2 | 5.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.7% | 0-4 | 0.9% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 1-1 | 12.8% | 1-2 | 8.2% |
| 1-3 | 3.7% | 1-4 | 1.2% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.3% | 2-1 | 8.4% | 2-2 | 5.6% |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.9% | 3-1 | 3.8% | 3-2 | 2.6% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.0% | 4-1 | 1.3% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.7% | under_0.5 | 7.3% | over_1.5 | 75.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.1% | over_2.5 | 50.9% | under_2.5 | 49.1% |
| over_3.5 | 28.8% | under_3.5 | 71.2% | over_4.5 | 13.9% |
| under_4.5 | 86.1% | over_5.5 | 5.8% | under_5.5 | 94.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.6% | under_0.5 | 25.4% | over_1.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.2% | over_2.5 | 16.0% | under_2.5 | 84.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 73.7% | under_0.5 | 26.3% | over_1.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.3% | over_2.5 | 15.3% | under_2.5 | 84.7% |
most
| home | 37.3% | draw | 26.9% | away | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.3% | away_+2.5 | 93.7% | home_-1.5 | 17.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 82.6% | home_-0.5 | 37.3% | away_+0.5 | 62.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.2% | away_-0.5 | 35.8% | home_+1.5 | 83.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 16.4% | home_+2.5 | 94.1% | away_-2.5 | 5.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.3% | exact_1 | 16.8% | exact_2 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.0% | exact_4 | 14.9% | exact_5 | 8.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.7% | exact_7plus | 2.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.2% | draw | 42.5% | away | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.2% | under_0.5 | 30.9% | over_1.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.1% | over_2.5 | 11.5% | under_2.5 | 88.5% |
btts
| yes | 19.7% | no | 80.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.9% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.4% | exact_4plus | 3.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.5% | draw | 37.0% | away | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.2% | under_0.5 | 22.8% | over_1.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.4% | over_2.5 | 18.6% | under_2.5 | 81.4% |
btts
| yes | 27.3% | no | 72.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 23.0% | H/D | 5.1% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.2% | D/D | 15.7% | D/A | 12.5% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 5.2% | A/A | 19.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.3% | under_7.5 | 21.7% | over_8.5 | 68.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.0% | over_9.5 | 56.7% | under_9.5 | 43.3% |
| over_10.5 | 45.2% | under_10.5 | 54.8% | over_11.5 | 34.5% |
| under_11.5 | 65.5% | over_12.5 | 25.2% | under_12.5 | 74.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.3% | under_3.5 | 27.7% | over_4.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.7% | over_5.5 | 42.6% | under_5.5 | 57.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 69.3% | under_3.5 | 30.7% | over_4.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.3% | over_5.5 | 38.9% | under_5.5 | 61.1% |
most
| home | 47.3% | draw | 10.1% | away | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.6% | away_+3.5 | 79.4% | home_-1.5 | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 62.5% | home_-0.5 | 47.3% | away_+0.5 | 52.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 57.4% | away_-0.5 | 42.6% | home_+1.5 | 67.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 33.0% | home_+3.5 | 82.6% | away_-3.5 | 17.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 59.8% | under_22.5 | 40.2% | over_24.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 51.9% | over_26.5 | 36.8% | under_26.5 | 63.2% |
| over_28.5 | 26.8% | under_28.5 | 73.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.9% | under_10.5 | 31.1% | over_12.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.7% | over_14.5 | 38.1% | under_14.5 | 61.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 52.8% | under_10.5 | 47.2% | over_12.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.9% | over_14.5 | 22.6% | under_14.5 | 77.4% |
most
| home | 59.0% | draw | 5.7% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.5% | away_+4.5 | 64.5% | home_-2.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.9% | home_-0.5 | 59.0% | away_+0.5 | 41.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.8% | away_-0.5 | 35.3% | home_+2.5 | 75.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.9% | home_+4.5 | 83.6% | away_-4.5 | 16.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.3% | under_6.5 | 30.7% | over_7.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 42.9% | over_8.5 | 44.9% | under_8.5 | 55.1% |
| over_9.5 | 33.7% | under_9.5 | 66.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.2% | under_3.5 | 38.8% | over_4.5 | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.7% | over_5.5 | 29.7% | under_5.5 | 70.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 52.7% | under_3.5 | 47.3% | over_4.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.5% | over_5.5 | 22.1% | under_5.5 | 77.9% |
most
| home | 49.9% | draw | 12.5% | away | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.5% | away_+2.5 | 73.5% | home_-0.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.1% | home_+0.5 | 62.4% | away_-0.5 | 37.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.7% | away_-2.5 | 17.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 77.1% | under_2.5 | 22.9% | over_3.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 42.1% | over_4.5 | 38.4% | under_4.5 | 61.6% |
| over_5.5 | 22.5% | under_5.5 | 77.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 55.4% | under_1.5 | 44.6% | over_2.5 | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 71.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 64.7% | under_1.5 | 35.3% | over_2.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.1% |
most
| home | 33.3% | draw | 20.3% | away | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.2% | away_+1.5 | 82.8% | home_-0.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.8% | home_+0.5 | 53.5% | away_-0.5 | 46.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.6% | away_-1.5 | 27.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 61.3% | under_20.5 | 38.7% | over_22.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 54.9% | over_24.5 | 30.2% | under_24.5 | 69.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 68.9% | under_9.5 | 31.1% | over_11.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 53.5% | over_13.5 | 26.4% | under_13.5 | 73.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 61.8% | under_9.5 | 38.2% | over_11.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.3% | over_13.5 | 20.1% | under_13.5 | 79.9% |
most
| home | 51.5% | draw | 8.1% | away | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.2% | away_+3.5 | 71.8% | home_-0.5 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.5% | home_+2.5 | 74.3% | away_-2.5 | 25.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 22.4% | no | 77.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.6% | no | 95.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 18.7% | no | 81.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Fulham predictions · Chelsea predictions · Premier League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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