Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Panathinaikos55.5%
Win probability · fair 1.80
Top signals
Draw or PanathinaikosVery likely80.7%Fair 1.24
Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.6%Fair 1.36
Under 2.5 goalsClose call52.2%Fair 1.92
Model read
▾
Panathinaikos go into this Super League Greece meeting with Olympiacos on 10 October 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 56%. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Olympiacos are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals47.8%@ 2.09
Over 8.5 corners46.1%@ 2.17
Olympiacos or draw44.5%@ 2.25
Medium risk
Not both teams to score51.2%@ 1.95
Random finds
0-1 correct score12.2%@ 8.22
1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.35
0-2 correct score10.8%@ 9.30
Model vs market
Olympiacos
19.3%
Draw
25.2%
Panathinaikos
55.5%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.6%Fair 1.36
Over 2.5Close call47.8%Fair 2.09
BTTS · YesClose call48.8%Fair 2.05
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call46.1%Fair 2.17
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely35.7%Fair 2.80
Over 10.5 cornersLong shot26.7%Fair 3.75
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot19.3%Fair 5.18
Most cornersOlympiacos52.2%Panathinaikos36.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsClose call50.8%Fair 1.97
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely39.4%Fair 2.54
Over 26.5 shotsLong shot29.1%Fair 3.44
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot20.4%Fair 4.90
Recent shot volume
Panathinaikos19.2 taken9.0 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.573.6%2.547.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
PanathinaikosWWWWW
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Olympiacos win5.19
Draw3.97
Panathinaikos win1.80
Both teams to score2.05
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.09
Over 3.5 goals3.83
Olympiacos most5.19
Panathinaikos most1.80
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.66
Over 8.5 corners2.12
Over 9.5 corners2.86
Over 10.5 corners4.07
Olympiacos most1.91
Panathinaikos most2.75
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.14
Over 3.5 cards1.35
Over 4.5 cards1.77
Over 5.5 cards2.57
Olympiacos most2.56
Panathinaikos most2.35
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.86
Over 8.5 SoT2.37
Over 9.5 SoT3.14
Olympiacos most2.00
Panathinaikos most2.63
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.97
Over 24.5 shots2.54
Over 26.5 shots3.44
Over 28.5 shots4.90
Olympiacos most1.69
Panathinaikos most2.85
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.08
Over 22.5 fouls1.16
Over 24.5 fouls1.29
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
50.8%
Over 24.5
39.4%
Over 26.5
29.1%
Over 28.5
20.4%
Most: Olympiacos
59.2%
Most: Panathinaikos
35.1%
Olympiacos Over 13.2
39.7%
Panathinaikos Over 13.2
23.7%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
65.7%
Over 7.5
53.8%
Over 8.5
42.3%
Over 9.5
31.8%
Most: Olympiacos
49.9%
Most: Panathinaikos
38.0%
Olympiacos Over 4.2
42.3%
Panathinaikos Over 4.2
33.8%
Cards
Over 2.5
87.8%
Over 3.5
73.9%
Over 4.5
56.4%
Most: Olympiacos
39.1%
Most: Panathinaikos
42.6%
Olympiacos Over 1.8
70.5%
Panathinaikos Over 1.8
72.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Olympiacos clean sheet
18.5%
Panathinaikos clean sheet
40.5%
Olympiacos win to nil
10.3%
Panathinaikos win to nil
32.4%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
19.3%
draw
25.2%
away
55.5%
double_chance
1X
44.5%
12
74.8%
X2
80.7%
dnb
home
25.8%
away
74.2%
btts
yes
48.8%
no
51.2%
clean_sheet
home
18.5%
away
40.8%
win_to_nil
home
10.4%
away
32.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1
12.8%
home_by_2
4.9%
home_by_3plus
1.6%
away_by_1
24.6%
away_by_2
17.3%
away_by_3plus
13.7%
correct_score
0-0
8.1%
0-1
12.2%
0-2
10.8%
0-3
6.1%
0-4
2.6%
0-5
0.9%
1-0
6.2%
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.6%
1-3
5.4%
1-4
2.3%
1-5
0.8%
2-0
3.0%
2-1
5.1%
2-2
4.3%
2-3
2.4%
2-4
1.0%
2-5
0.4%
3-0
0.9%
3-1
1.5%
3-2
1.3%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
4-1
0.3%
4-2
0.3%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.0%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.8%
likeliest_score
h
0.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.9%
under_0.5
8.1%
over_1.5
73.6%
under_1.5
26.5%
over_2.5
47.8%
under_2.5
52.2%
over_3.5
26.1%
under_3.5
73.9%
over_4.5
12.1%
under_4.5
87.9%
over_5.5
4.8%
under_5.5
95.2%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
59.2%
under_0.5
40.8%
over_1.5
22.6%
under_1.5
77.4%
over_2.5
6.2%
under_2.5
93.8%
team_away
over_0.5
81.5%
under_0.5
18.5%
over_1.5
50.3%
under_1.5
49.7%
over_2.5
24.0%
under_2.5
76.0%
most
home
19.3%
draw
25.2%
away
55.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
1.6%
away_+2.5
98.4%
home_-1.5
6.5%
away_+1.5
93.5%
home_-0.5
19.3%
away_+0.5
80.7%
home_+0.5
44.5%
away_-0.5
55.5%
home_+1.5
69.0%
away_-1.5
31.0%
home_+2.5
86.3%
away_-2.5
13.7%
total_exact
exact_0
8.1%
exact_1
18.3%
exact_2
25.8%
exact_3
21.7%
exact_4
14.0%
exact_5
7.3%
exact_6
3.1%
exact_7plus
1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
21.9%
draw
43.1%
away
35.0%
total
over_0.5
67.6%
under_0.5
32.4%
over_1.5
31.1%
under_1.5
68.9%
over_2.5
10.5%
under_2.5
89.5%
btts
yes
18.0%
no
82.0%
total_exact
exact_0
32.4%
exact_1
36.5%
exact_2
20.6%
exact_3
7.7%
exact_4plus
2.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
27.6%
draw
39.1%
away
33.3%
total
over_0.5
74.1%
under_0.5
25.9%
over_1.5
39.2%
under_1.5
60.9%
over_2.5
15.5%
under_2.5
84.5%
btts
yes
24.0%
no
76.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
15.7%
H/D
4.4%
H/A
1.8%
D/H
11.9%
D/D
16.8%
D/A
14.4%
A/H
2.0%
A/D
5.6%
A/A
27.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
60.1%
under_7.5
39.9%
over_8.5
47.2%
under_8.5
52.8%
over_9.5
35.0%
under_9.5
65.0%
over_10.5
24.6%
under_10.5
75.4%
over_11.5
16.4%
under_11.5
83.6%
over_12.5
10.4%
under_12.5
89.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
63.9%
under_3.5
36.1%
over_4.5
47.4%
under_4.5
52.6%
over_5.5
32.6%
under_5.5
67.4%
team_away
over_3.5
52.0%
under_3.5
48.0%
over_4.5
35.1%
under_4.5
64.9%
over_5.5
21.8%
under_5.5
78.2%
most
home
52.4%
draw
11.2%
away
36.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.4%
away_+3.5
78.6%
home_-1.5
41.0%
away_+1.5
59.0%
home_-0.5
52.4%
away_+0.5
47.6%
home_+0.5
63.6%
away_-0.5
36.4%
home_+1.5
73.8%
away_-1.5
26.2%
home_+3.5
88.6%
away_-3.5
11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
50.8%
under_22.5
49.2%
over_24.5
39.4%
under_24.5
60.7%
over_26.5
29.1%
under_26.5
70.9%
over_28.5
20.4%
under_28.5
79.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
62.8%
under_10.5
37.2%
over_12.5
47.2%
under_12.5
52.8%
over_14.5
32.9%
under_14.5
67.1%
team_away
over_10.5
45.8%
under_10.5
54.2%
over_12.5
30.1%
under_12.5
69.9%
over_14.5
18.3%
under_14.5
81.8%
most
home
59.2%
draw
5.7%
away
35.1%
handicap
home_-4.5
35.6%
away_+4.5
64.4%
home_-2.5
47.3%
away_+2.5
52.8%
home_-0.5
59.2%
away_+0.5
40.8%
home_+0.5
64.9%
away_-0.5
35.1%
home_+2.5
75.3%
away_-2.5
24.7%
home_+4.5
83.8%
away_-4.5
16.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
65.7%
under_6.5
34.3%
over_7.5
53.8%
under_7.5
46.2%
over_8.5
42.3%
under_8.5
57.7%
over_9.5
31.8%
under_9.5
68.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
58.3%
under_3.5
41.7%
over_4.5
42.3%
under_4.5
57.7%
over_5.5
28.7%
under_5.5
71.3%
team_away
over_3.5
49.9%
under_3.5
50.1%
over_4.5
33.8%
under_4.5
66.2%
over_5.5
21.3%
under_5.5
78.7%
most
home
49.9%
draw
12.2%
away
38.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
27.1%
away_+2.5
72.9%
home_-0.5
49.9%
away_+0.5
50.1%
home_+0.5
62.0%
away_-0.5
38.0%
home_+2.5
82.0%
away_-2.5
18.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
87.8%
under_2.5
12.2%
over_3.5
73.9%
under_3.5
26.1%
over_4.5
56.4%
under_4.5
43.6%
over_5.5
38.9%
under_5.5
61.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
70.5%
under_1.5
29.5%
over_2.5
44.7%
under_2.5
55.3%
team_away
over_1.5
72.6%
under_1.5
27.4%
over_2.5
47.3%
under_2.5
52.8%
most
home
39.1%
draw
18.3%
away
42.6%
handicap
home_-1.5
23.1%
away_+1.5
76.9%
home_-0.5
39.1%
away_+0.5
60.9%
home_+0.5
57.4%
away_-0.5
42.6%
home_+1.5
74.1%
away_-1.5
25.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
92.6%
under_20.5
7.4%
over_22.5
86.3%
under_22.5
13.7%
over_24.5
77.3%
under_24.5
22.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
86.5%
under_9.5
13.5%
over_11.5
72.4%
under_11.5
27.6%
over_13.5
54.8%
under_13.5
45.3%
team_away
over_9.5
89.7%
under_9.5
10.3%
over_11.5
77.7%
under_11.5
22.3%
over_13.5
61.5%
under_13.5
38.5%
most
home
42.0%
draw
6.4%
away
51.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.6%
away_+3.5
75.4%
home_-0.5
42.0%
away_+0.5
58.0%
home_+2.5
61.2%
away_-2.5
38.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
28.7%
no
71.3%
home
yes
18.6%
no
81.4%
away
yes
12.4%
no
87.6%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Super League Greece
Panathinaikos