Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Feyenoord48.5%
Win probability · fair 2.06
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely84.4%Fair 1.18
Feyenoord or drawLikely71.9%Fair 1.39
Over 8.5 cornersLikely66.1%Fair 1.51
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Feyenoord at 48% for 10 October 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Everything in the shot data points to goals, 64% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. 2) The recent series reads 3 wins for Feyenoord, 2 draws and 0 for AZ Alkmaar over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. 3) Form guide over the last six: Feyenoord W4 D2 L0, AZ Alkmaar W5 D1 L0. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners46.7%@ 2.14
Over 11.5 corners37.6%@ 2.66
Medium risk
Over 9.5 corners56.4%@ 1.77
Draw or AZ Alkmaar51.5%@ 1.94
Random finds
1-1 correct score10.4%@ 9.62
2-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.74
1-2 correct score6.9%@ 14.47
Model vs market
Feyenoord
48.5%
Draw
23.4%
AZ Alkmaar
28.1%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely84.4%Fair 1.18
Over 2.5Likely63.6%Fair 1.57
BTTS · YesLikely64.3%Fair 1.56
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely66.1%Fair 1.51
Over 9.5 cornersClose call56.4%Fair 1.77
Over 10.5 cornersClose call46.7%Fair 2.14
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely37.6%Fair 2.66
Most cornersFeyenoord54.5%AZ Alkmaar35.7%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsVery likely75.1%Fair 1.33
Over 24.5 shotsLikely65.1%Fair 1.54
Over 26.5 shotsClose call54.3%Fair 1.84
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely43.3%Fair 2.31
Recent shot volume
Feyenoord22.2 taken10.2 faced
AZ Alkmaar19.8 taken9.0 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.584.4%2.563.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.563.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
FeyenoordDWDWW
AZ AlkmaarWWWWD
Last 5 meetings: Feyenoord 3 · 2 draws · AZ Alkmaar 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Feyenoord win2.06
Draw4.27
AZ Alkmaar win3.55
Both teams to score1.56
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.57
Over 3.5 goals2.41
Over 4.5 goals4.28
Feyenoord most2.06
AZ Alkmaar most3.55
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.24
Over 8.5 corners1.42
Over 9.5 corners1.68
Over 10.5 corners2.08
Feyenoord most1.83
AZ Alkmaar most2.79
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.90
Over 3.5 cards3.26
Over 4.5 cards6.51
Over 5.5 cards14.88
Feyenoord most3.42
AZ Alkmaar most2.17
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.29
Over 8.5 SoT1.48
Over 9.5 SoT1.76
Feyenoord most1.97
AZ Alkmaar most2.60
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.33
Over 24.5 shots1.54
Over 26.5 shots1.84
Over 28.5 shots2.31
Feyenoord most1.72
AZ Alkmaar most2.74
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.89
Over 22.5 fouls2.65
Over 24.5 fouls4.05
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
75.1%
Over 24.5
65.1%
Over 26.5
54.3%
Over 28.5
43.3%
Most: Feyenoord
58.1%
Most: AZ Alkmaar
36.6%
Feyenoord Over 13.2
57.3%
AZ Alkmaar Over 13.2
41.7%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
85.5%
Over 7.5
77.2%
Over 8.5
67.5%
Over 9.5
56.9%
Most: Feyenoord
50.8%
Most: AZ Alkmaar
38.4%
Feyenoord Over 4.2
60.7%
AZ Alkmaar Over 4.2
52.0%
Cards
Over 2.5
52.5%
Over 3.5
30.7%
Over 4.5
15.4%
Most: Feyenoord
29.2%
Most: AZ Alkmaar
46.1%
Feyenoord Over 1.8
33.8%
AZ Alkmaar Over 1.8
46.7%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Feyenoord clean sheet
24.4%
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet
15.2%
Feyenoord win to nil
20.2%
AZ Alkmaar win to nil
10.9%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
48.5%
draw
23.4%
away
28.1%
double_chance
1X
71.9%
12
76.6%
X2
51.5%
dnb
home
63.3%
away
36.7%
btts
yes
64.3%
no
35.7%
clean_sheet
home
24.8%
away
15.3%
win_to_nil
home
20.5%
away
11.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.0%
home_by_2
14.8%
home_by_3plus
12.6%
away_by_1
15.5%
away_by_2
8.2%
away_by_3plus
4.5%
correct_score
0-0
4.3%
0-1
4.8%
0-2
3.7%
0-3
1.7%
0-4
0.6%
0-5
0.2%
1-0
6.6%
1-1
10.4%
1-2
6.9%
1-3
3.2%
1-4
1.1%
1-5
0.3%
2-0
6.7%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
6.5%
2-3
3.0%
2-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-0
4.2%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
4.1%
3-3
1.9%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
2.0%
4-1
2.8%
4-2
1.9%
4-3
0.9%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.7%
5-1
1.0%
5-2
0.7%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.6%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
10.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.7%
under_0.5
4.3%
over_1.5
84.4%
under_1.5
15.6%
over_2.5
63.6%
under_2.5
36.4%
over_3.5
41.5%
under_3.5
58.5%
over_4.5
23.4%
under_4.5
76.6%
over_5.5
11.5%
under_5.5
88.5%
odd_even
odd
48.9%
even
51.1%
team_home
over_0.5
84.8%
under_0.5
15.3%
over_1.5
56.1%
under_1.5
43.9%
over_2.5
29.2%
under_2.5
70.9%
team_away
over_0.5
75.3%
under_0.5
24.8%
over_1.5
40.7%
under_1.5
59.3%
over_2.5
16.6%
under_2.5
83.4%
most
home
48.5%
draw
23.4%
away
28.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
12.6%
away_+2.5
87.4%
home_-1.5
27.5%
away_+1.5
72.6%
home_-0.5
48.5%
away_+0.5
51.5%
home_+0.5
71.9%
away_-0.5
28.1%
home_+1.5
87.3%
away_-1.5
12.7%
home_+2.5
95.5%
away_-2.5
4.5%
total_exact
exact_0
4.3%
exact_1
11.4%
exact_2
20.8%
exact_3
22.1%
exact_4
18.1%
exact_5
11.9%
exact_6
6.5%
exact_7plus
5.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
42.4%
draw
35.8%
away
21.8%
total
over_0.5
77.7%
under_0.5
22.3%
over_1.5
44.2%
under_1.5
55.8%
over_2.5
19.1%
under_2.5
80.9%
btts
yes
26.4%
no
73.7%
total_exact
exact_0
22.3%
exact_1
33.5%
exact_2
25.1%
exact_3
12.6%
exact_4plus
6.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
39.3%
draw
32.2%
away
28.5%
total
over_0.5
84.1%
under_0.5
15.9%
over_1.5
54.9%
under_1.5
45.1%
over_2.5
28.0%
under_2.5
72.0%
btts
yes
35.8%
no
64.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
33.7%
H/D
6.0%
H/A
2.7%
D/H
14.1%
D/D
11.5%
D/A
10.2%
A/H
2.7%
A/D
4.5%
A/A
14.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
80.3%
under_7.5
19.7%
over_8.5
70.5%
under_8.5
29.5%
over_9.5
59.4%
under_9.5
40.6%
over_10.5
48.0%
under_10.5
52.0%
over_11.5
37.1%
under_11.5
62.9%
over_12.5
27.5%
under_12.5
72.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.5%
under_3.5
22.5%
over_4.5
64.0%
under_4.5
36.0%
over_5.5
49.7%
under_5.5
50.3%
team_away
over_3.5
65.8%
under_3.5
34.2%
over_4.5
49.8%
under_4.5
50.2%
over_5.5
35.1%
under_5.5
64.9%
most
home
54.6%
draw
9.6%
away
35.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.8%
away_+3.5
73.2%
home_-1.5
44.8%
away_+1.5
55.2%
home_-0.5
54.6%
away_+0.5
45.4%
home_+0.5
64.2%
away_-0.5
35.8%
home_+1.5
72.9%
away_-1.5
27.1%
home_+3.5
86.5%
away_-3.5
13.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
75.1%
under_22.5
24.9%
over_24.5
65.1%
under_24.5
34.9%
over_26.5
54.3%
under_26.5
45.7%
over_28.5
43.3%
under_28.5
56.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
78.0%
under_10.5
22.0%
over_12.5
64.6%
under_12.5
35.4%
over_14.5
49.9%
under_14.5
50.1%
team_away
over_10.5
65.4%
under_10.5
34.6%
over_12.5
49.4%
under_12.5
50.6%
over_14.5
34.5%
under_14.5
65.5%
most
home
58.1%
draw
5.4%
away
36.6%
handicap
home_-4.5
36.0%
away_+4.5
64.0%
home_-2.5
46.9%
away_+2.5
53.1%
home_-0.5
58.1%
away_+0.5
41.9%
home_+0.5
63.4%
away_-0.5
36.6%
home_+2.5
73.4%
away_-2.5
26.7%
home_+4.5
81.7%
away_-4.5
18.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
85.5%
under_6.5
14.5%
over_7.5
77.3%
under_7.5
22.8%
over_8.5
67.5%
under_8.5
32.5%
over_9.5
56.9%
under_9.5
43.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
75.2%
under_3.5
24.8%
over_4.5
60.7%
under_4.5
39.3%
over_5.5
45.9%
under_5.5
54.1%
team_away
over_3.5
68.1%
under_3.5
31.9%
over_4.5
52.1%
under_4.5
47.9%
over_5.5
37.0%
under_5.5
63.0%
most
home
50.8%
draw
10.8%
away
38.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
30.0%
away_+2.5
70.1%
home_-0.5
50.8%
away_+0.5
49.2%
home_+0.5
61.6%
away_-0.5
38.4%
home_+2.5
80.0%
away_-2.5
20.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
52.6%
under_2.5
47.4%
over_3.5
30.7%
under_3.5
69.3%
over_4.5
15.4%
under_4.5
84.6%
over_5.5
6.7%
under_5.5
93.3%
odd_even
odd
49.8%
even
50.2%
team_home
over_1.5
33.8%
under_1.5
66.2%
over_2.5
12.4%
under_2.5
87.6%
team_away
over_1.5
46.7%
under_1.5
53.3%
over_2.5
21.5%
under_2.5
78.5%
most
home
29.2%
draw
24.7%
away
46.1%
handicap
home_-1.5
12.2%
away_+1.5
87.8%
home_-0.5
29.2%
away_+0.5
70.8%
home_+0.5
53.9%
away_-0.5
46.1%
home_+1.5
76.2%
away_-1.5
23.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
52.9%
under_20.5
47.1%
over_22.5
37.7%
under_22.5
62.3%
over_24.5
24.7%
under_24.5
75.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
51.9%
under_9.5
48.1%
over_11.5
30.6%
under_11.5
69.4%
over_13.5
15.2%
under_13.5
84.8%
team_away
over_9.5
65.5%
under_9.5
34.5%
over_11.5
44.3%
under_11.5
55.7%
over_13.5
25.8%
under_13.5
74.2%
most
home
36.3%
draw
7.6%
away
56.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
17.3%
away_+3.5
82.7%
home_-0.5
36.3%
away_+0.5
63.7%
home_+2.5
59.6%
away_-2.5
40.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
13.1%
no
87.0%
home
yes
6.6%
no
93.4%
away
yes
6.9%
no
93.1%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Eredivisie
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar