Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Lazio56.5%
Win probability · fair 1.77
Top signals
Lazio or drawVery likely82.9%Fair 1.21
Over 1.5 goalsLikely71.2%Fair 1.40
Under 2.5 goalsClose call55.2%Fair 1.81
Model read
▾
Few Serie A fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Lazio carry a 57% win probability against Monza on 11 October 2026. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 45% with both teams to score at 47%. Andrea Pinamonti drives the home shot volume, 1.0 on target per 90. Monza are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Lazio, 2 draws and 0 for Monza, averaging 3.0 goals a game. The run in: Lazio arrive W5 D1 L0, Monza W1 D1 L4. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals44.8%@ 2.23
Draw or Monza43.5%@ 2.30
Over 9.5 corners39.4%@ 2.54
Medium risk
Not both teams to score53.0%@ 1.89
Over 8.5 corners49.2%@ 2.03
Random finds
1-0 correct score12.9%@ 7.73
1-1 correct score12.4%@ 8.07
2-0 correct score10.8%@ 9.29
Model vs market
Lazio
56.5%
Draw
26.4%
Monza
17.1%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely71.2%Fair 1.40
Over 2.5Unlikely44.8%Fair 2.23
BTTS · YesClose call47.0%Fair 2.13
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call49.2%Fair 2.03
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely39.4%Fair 2.54
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely30.6%Fair 3.27
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot23.2%Fair 4.31
Most cornersLazio55.1%Monza34.3%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely60.6%Fair 1.65
Over 24.5 shotsClose call48.5%Fair 2.06
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely36.9%Fair 2.71
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot26.6%Fair 3.76
Recent shot volume
Lazio13.2 taken12.2 faced
Monza13.0 taken13.3 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Lazio (5 games)
5.4 / 7.4
Monza (5 games)
7.4 / 6.8
Totals line guide
0.5·1.571.2%2.544.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.2%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
LazioWWWDW
MonzaLLDLW
Last 5 meetings: Lazio 3 · 2 draws · Monza 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Andrea PinamontiLazio · key player
To score22.4%4.46
1+ on target55.9%1.79
2+ shots60.0%1.67
Shots/90 2.47SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.31
Patrick CutroneMonza · key player
To score11.7%8.55
1+ on target46.3%2.16
2+ shots54.1%1.85
Shots/90 2.77SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.19
Tijjani NoslinLazio · in form
To score12.5%8.00
1+ on target31.0%3.23
2+ shots25.9%3.86
Shots/90 2.65SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.36
Andrea ColpaniMonza · in form
To score11.3%8.85
1+ on target38.0%2.63
2+ shots43.6%2.29
Shots/90 2.23SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.18
Gustav IsaksenLazio · in form
To score11.3%8.85
1+ on target45.2%2.21
2+ shots45.2%2.21
Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.19
Samuele BirindelliMonza · in form
To score11.5%8.70
1+ on target41.6%2.40
2+ shots20.3%4.93
Shots/90 1.02SoT/90 0.66Goals/90 0.15
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Lazio win1.86
Draw3.81
Monza win5.00
Both teams to score2.13
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.41
Over 2.5 goals2.23
Over 3.5 goals4.25
Lazio most1.86
Monza most5.00
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.62
Over 8.5 corners1.99
Over 9.5 corners2.53
Over 10.5 corners3.36
Lazio most1.81
Monza most2.91
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.29
Over 3.5 cards1.69
Over 4.5 cards2.46
Over 5.5 cards3.98
Lazio most3.44
Monza most1.92
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.68
Over 8.5 SoT2.08
Over 9.5 SoT2.68
Lazio most2.04
Monza most2.55
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.65
Over 24.5 shots2.06
Over 26.5 shots2.71
Over 28.5 shots3.76
Lazio most1.71
Monza most2.80
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.33
Over 22.5 fouls1.58
Over 24.5 fouls1.99
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
60.6%
Over 24.5
48.5%
Over 26.5
36.9%
Over 28.5
26.6%
Most: Lazio
58.3%
Most: Monza
35.8%
Lazio Over 13.2
45.1%
Monza Over 13.2
29.4%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
70.6%
Over 7.5
59.3%
Over 8.5
48.0%
Over 9.5
37.3%
Most: Lazio
49.1%
Most: Monza
39.3%
Lazio Over 4.2
45.6%
Monza Over 4.2
38.5%
Cards
Over 2.5
77.5%
Over 3.5
59.3%
Over 4.5
40.6%
Most: Lazio
29.0%
Most: Monza
52.1%
Lazio Over 1.8
51.9%
Monza Over 1.8
68.0%
Lazio: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Andrea Pinamonti
2.47
1
0.31
55.9%
60.0%
22.4%
Tijjani Noslin
2.65
1
0.36
31.0%
25.9%
12.5%
Gustav Isaksen
2.42
0.95
0.19
45.2%
45.2%
11.3%
Albert Gudmundsson
1.81
0.76
0.29
39.9%
34.2%
17.7%
Matteo Cancellieri
1.8
0.7
0.19
36.6%
32.8%
11.6%
Monza: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Patrick Cutrone
2.77
0.95
0.19
46.3%
54.1%
11.7%
Andrea Colpani
2.23
0.72
0.18
38.0%
43.6%
11.3%
Samuele Birindelli
1.02
0.66
0.15
41.6%
20.3%
11.5%
Dany Mota
1.94
0.47
0.17
29.7%
42.6%
12.0%
Eddy Kouadio
0.36
0.36
0
22.4%
2.7%
0.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Lazio clean sheet
41.5%
Monza clean sheet
20.3%
Lazio win to nil
32.4%
Monza win to nil
11.3%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
53.7%
draw
26.3%
away
20.0%
double_chance
1X
80.0%
12
73.7%
X2
46.3%
dnb
home
72.8%
away
27.1%
btts
yes
47.0%
no
53.0%
clean_sheet
home
41.8%
away
20.3%
win_to_nil
home
32.7%
away
11.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1
24.8%
home_by_2
16.7%
home_by_3plus
12.2%
away_by_1
13.3%
away_by_2
5.0%
away_by_3plus
1.7%
correct_score
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
3.2%
0-3
1.0%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
12.9%
1-1
12.4%
1-2
5.2%
1-3
1.5%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
4.1%
2-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
5.7%
3-1
5.0%
3-2
2.2%
3-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
2.3%
4-1
2.0%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.7%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.6%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
0.0%
p
12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
90.9%
under_0.5
9.1%
over_1.5
71.2%
under_1.5
28.8%
over_2.5
44.8%
under_2.5
55.2%
over_3.5
23.5%
under_3.5
76.5%
over_4.5
10.5%
under_4.5
89.6%
over_5.5
4.0%
under_5.5
96.0%
odd_even
odd
48.5%
even
51.5%
team_home
over_0.5
79.7%
under_0.5
20.3%
over_1.5
47.3%
under_1.5
52.7%
over_2.5
21.5%
under_2.5
78.5%
team_away
over_0.5
58.3%
under_0.5
41.8%
over_1.5
21.8%
under_1.5
78.2%
over_2.5
5.9%
under_2.5
94.1%
most
home
53.7%
draw
26.3%
away
20.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
12.2%
away_+2.5
87.8%
home_-1.5
28.9%
away_+1.5
71.1%
home_-0.5
53.7%
away_+0.5
46.3%
home_+0.5
80.0%
away_-0.5
20.0%
home_+1.5
93.3%
away_-1.5
6.7%
home_+2.5
98.4%
away_-2.5
1.7%
total_exact
exact_0
9.1%
exact_1
19.8%
exact_2
26.4%
exact_3
21.2%
exact_4
13.1%
exact_5
6.5%
exact_6
2.7%
exact_7plus
1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
40.2%
draw
39.9%
away
19.9%
total
over_0.5
71.6%
under_0.5
28.4%
over_1.5
35.8%
under_1.5
64.2%
over_2.5
13.3%
under_2.5
86.7%
btts
yes
20.3%
no
79.7%
total_exact
exact_0
28.4%
exact_1
35.8%
exact_2
22.5%
exact_3
9.4%
exact_4plus
3.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
46.9%
draw
34.2%
away
18.9%
total
over_0.5
79.0%
under_0.5
21.0%
over_1.5
46.2%
under_1.5
53.8%
over_2.5
20.7%
under_2.5
79.3%
btts
yes
26.6%
no
73.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
34.7%
H/D
4.3%
H/A
1.2%
D/H
18.7%
D/D
13.7%
D/A
7.5%
A/H
3.2%
A/D
4.9%
A/A
11.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
61.8%
under_7.5
38.2%
over_8.5
50.4%
under_8.5
49.6%
over_9.5
39.5%
under_9.5
60.5%
over_10.5
29.8%
under_10.5
70.2%
over_11.5
21.7%
under_11.5
78.3%
over_12.5
15.3%
under_12.5
84.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
65.9%
under_3.5
34.2%
over_4.5
51.1%
under_4.5
48.9%
over_5.5
37.6%
under_5.5
62.4%
team_away
over_3.5
50.9%
under_3.5
49.1%
over_4.5
35.3%
under_4.5
64.7%
over_5.5
23.0%
under_5.5
77.0%
most
home
55.2%
draw
10.4%
away
34.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.5%
away_+3.5
74.5%
home_-1.5
44.5%
away_+1.5
55.5%
home_-0.5
55.2%
away_+0.5
44.8%
home_+0.5
65.6%
away_-0.5
34.4%
home_+1.5
74.9%
away_-1.5
25.1%
home_+3.5
88.5%
away_-3.5
11.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
60.6%
under_22.5
39.4%
over_24.5
48.5%
under_24.5
51.5%
over_26.5
36.9%
under_26.5
63.1%
over_28.5
26.6%
under_28.5
73.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
69.4%
under_10.5
30.7%
over_12.5
53.2%
under_12.5
46.9%
over_14.5
37.5%
under_14.5
62.5%
team_away
over_10.5
54.2%
under_10.5
45.8%
over_12.5
36.9%
under_12.5
63.1%
over_14.5
22.9%
under_14.5
77.1%
most
home
58.3%
draw
5.9%
away
35.8%
handicap
home_-4.5
34.2%
away_+4.5
65.8%
home_-2.5
46.1%
away_+2.5
53.9%
home_-0.5
58.3%
away_+0.5
41.7%
home_+0.5
64.2%
away_-0.5
35.8%
home_+2.5
75.0%
away_-2.5
25.0%
home_+4.5
83.7%
away_-4.5
16.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
70.6%
under_6.5
29.5%
over_7.5
59.4%
under_7.5
40.7%
over_8.5
48.0%
under_8.5
52.0%
over_9.5
37.4%
under_9.5
62.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
61.3%
under_3.5
38.7%
over_4.5
45.6%
under_4.5
54.4%
over_5.5
31.8%
under_5.5
68.2%
team_away
over_3.5
54.6%
under_3.5
45.4%
over_4.5
38.5%
under_4.5
61.5%
over_5.5
25.4%
under_5.5
74.6%
most
home
49.1%
draw
11.7%
away
39.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
27.2%
away_+2.5
72.8%
home_-0.5
49.1%
away_+0.5
50.9%
home_+0.5
60.7%
away_-0.5
39.3%
home_+2.5
80.4%
away_-2.5
19.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
77.5%
under_2.5
22.5%
over_3.5
59.3%
under_3.5
40.7%
over_4.5
40.7%
under_4.5
59.4%
over_5.5
25.1%
under_5.5
74.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
51.9%
under_1.5
48.1%
over_2.5
26.4%
under_2.5
73.6%
team_away
over_1.5
68.0%
under_1.5
32.0%
over_2.5
43.0%
under_2.5
57.0%
most
home
29.0%
draw
18.9%
away
52.1%
handicap
home_-1.5
14.8%
away_+1.5
85.2%
home_-0.5
29.0%
away_+0.5
71.0%
home_+0.5
47.9%
away_-0.5
52.1%
home_+1.5
66.9%
away_-1.5
33.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
75.3%
under_20.5
24.7%
over_22.5
63.2%
under_22.5
36.8%
over_24.5
50.1%
under_24.5
49.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
67.8%
under_9.5
32.2%
over_11.5
48.5%
under_11.5
51.5%
over_13.5
30.8%
under_13.5
69.2%
team_away
over_9.5
78.7%
under_9.5
21.3%
over_11.5
62.2%
under_11.5
37.8%
over_13.5
44.3%
under_13.5
55.7%
most
home
37.1%
draw
6.5%
away
56.5%
handicap
home_-3.5
20.3%
away_+3.5
79.7%
home_-0.5
37.1%
away_+0.5
62.9%
home_+2.5
56.8%
away_-2.5
43.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
16.4%
no
83.6%
home
yes
9.2%
no
90.8%
away
yes
7.9%
no
92.1%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Serie A
Lazio
Monza