Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Como36.1%
Win probability · fair 2.77
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely72.7%Fair 1.38
Como or drawLikely63.9%Fair 1.56
Draw or RomaLikely63.9%Fair 1.56
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Como at 36% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 11 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • The run in: Como arrive W5 D1 L0, Roma W6 D0 L0. • For shots markets, Moise Kean is the obvious watch at 1.5 on target per 90 in recent data. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 2 wins for Como, 0 draws and 2 for Roma at 2.2 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals46.7%@ 2.14
Over 9.5 corners38.6%@ 2.59
Roma win36.1%@ 2.77
Medium risk
Under 2.5 goals53.3%@ 1.88
Both teams to score52.3%@ 1.91
Over 8.5 corners48.4%@ 2.07
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.51
1-0 correct score9.4%@ 10.64
0-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.71
Model vs market
Como
36.1%
Draw
27.9%
Roma
36.1%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely72.7%Fair 1.38
Over 2.5Close call46.7%Fair 2.14
BTTS · YesClose call52.3%Fair 1.91
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call48.4%Fair 2.07
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely38.6%Fair 2.59
Over 10.5 cornersLong shot29.9%Fair 3.34
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot22.5%Fair 4.44
Most cornersComo55.8%Roma33.5%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely60.3%Fair 1.66
Over 24.5 shotsClose call48.2%Fair 2.08
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely36.5%Fair 2.74
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot26.2%Fair 3.82
Recent shot volume
Como21.3 taken10.2 faced
Roma20.0 taken7.3 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Como (4 games)
11.5 / 10.8
Roma (4 games)
10.8 / 10.5
Totals line guide
0.5·1.572.7%2.546.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.7%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
ComoWDWWW
RomaWWWWW
Last 4 meetings: Como 2 · 0 draws · Roma 2 · 2.3 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Moise KeanComo · key player
To score34.9%2.87
1+ on target73.5%1.36
2+ shots84.8%1.18
Shots/90 3.84SoT/90 1.52Goals/90 0.49
Donyell MalenRoma · key player
To score34.3%2.92
1+ on target59.8%1.67
2+ shots62.4%1.60
Shots/90 4.13SoT/90 1.78Goals/90 0.82
Nico PazComo · in form
To score23.2%4.31
1+ on target71.0%1.41
2+ shots86.2%1.16
Shots/90 3.83SoT/90 1.36Goals/90 0.29
Paulo DybalaRoma · in form
To score15.6%6.41
1+ on target57.3%1.75
2+ shots64.3%1.56
Shots/90 3.09SoT/90 1.2Goals/90 0.24
Tasos DouvikasComo · in form
To score24.5%4.08
1+ on target48.3%2.07
2+ shots42.6%2.35
Shots/90 2.53SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.49
Matìas Soulè MalvanoRoma · in form
To score19.0%5.26
1+ on target45.8%2.18
2+ shots51.0%1.96
Shots/90 2.35SoT/90 0.84Goals/90 0.29
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Como win2.76
Draw3.58
Roma win2.79
Both teams to score1.91
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.14
Over 3.5 goals3.97
Como most2.76
Roma most2.79
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.64
Over 8.5 corners2.02
Over 9.5 corners2.59
Over 10.5 corners3.45
Como most1.79
Roma most2.97
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.94
Over 4.5 cards3.03
Over 5.5 cards5.28
Como most2.90
Roma most2.23
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.41
Over 7.5 SoT1.68
Over 8.5 SoT2.07
Over 9.5 SoT2.66
Como most1.78
Roma most3.08
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.66
Over 24.5 shots2.08
Over 26.5 shots2.74
Over 28.5 shots3.82
Como most1.56
Roma most3.31
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.32
Over 22.5 fouls1.57
Over 24.5 fouls1.97
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
60.3%
Over 24.5
48.2%
Over 26.5
36.5%
Over 28.5
26.2%
Most: Como
64.2%
Most: Roma
30.2%
Como Over 13.2
49.0%
Roma Over 13.2
25.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
70.8%
Over 7.5
59.6%
Over 8.5
48.3%
Over 9.5
37.7%
Most: Como
56.2%
Most: Roma
32.5%
Como Over 4.2
50.6%
Roma Over 4.2
33.4%
Cards
Over 2.5
71.6%
Over 3.5
51.6%
Over 4.5
33.0%
Most: Como
34.5%
Most: Roma
44.9%
Como Over 1.8
51.4%
Roma Over 1.8
58.9%
Como: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Moise Kean
3.84
1.52
0.49
73.5%
84.8%
34.9%
Nico Paz
3.83
1.36
0.29
71.0%
86.2%
23.2%
Tasos Douvikas
2.53
1.15
0.49
48.3%
42.6%
24.5%
Assane Diao
2.31
0.84
0.41
45.0%
48.9%
25.3%
Jesús Rodriguez
2.33
0.66
0.12
33.1%
41.5%
7.1%
Roma: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Donyell Malen
4.13
1.78
0.82
59.8%
62.4%
34.3%
Paulo Dybala
3.09
1.2
0.24
57.3%
64.3%
15.6%
Matìas Soulè Malvano
2.35
0.84
0.29
45.8%
51.0%
19.0%
Santiago Castro
2.44
0.76
0.28
41.5%
51.3%
17.9%
Neil El Aynaoui
1.02
0.51
0.29
26.4%
12.6%
16.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Como clean sheet
28.2%
Roma clean sheet
27.9%
Como win to nil
19.7%
Roma win to nil
19.4%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
36.2%
draw
28.0%
away
35.8%
double_chance
1X
64.2%
12
72.0%
X2
63.8%
dnb
home
50.3%
away
49.7%
btts
yes
52.3%
no
47.7%
clean_sheet
home
28.2%
away
28.0%
win_to_nil
home
19.7%
away
19.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
20.0%
home_by_2
10.6%
home_by_3plus
5.6%
away_by_1
19.9%
away_by_2
10.5%
away_by_3plus
5.5%
correct_score
0-0
8.5%
0-1
9.3%
0-2
6.3%
0-3
2.7%
0-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-0
9.4%
1-1
13.3%
1-2
8.0%
1-3
3.4%
1-4
1.1%
1-5
0.3%
2-0
6.4%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
5.1%
2-3
2.2%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
2.7%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
2.2%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.9%
4-1
1.1%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.4%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.5%
under_0.5
8.5%
over_1.5
72.8%
under_1.5
27.3%
over_2.5
46.7%
under_2.5
53.3%
over_3.5
25.2%
under_3.5
74.8%
over_4.5
11.5%
under_4.5
88.5%
over_5.5
4.5%
under_5.5
95.5%
odd_even
odd
48.4%
even
51.6%
team_home
over_0.5
72.0%
under_0.5
28.0%
over_1.5
36.5%
under_1.5
63.5%
over_2.5
13.8%
under_2.5
86.2%
team_away
over_0.5
71.8%
under_0.5
28.2%
over_1.5
36.1%
under_1.5
63.9%
over_2.5
13.5%
under_2.5
86.5%
most
home
36.2%
draw
28.0%
away
35.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
5.6%
away_+2.5
94.4%
home_-1.5
16.2%
away_+1.5
83.8%
home_-0.5
36.2%
away_+0.5
63.8%
home_+0.5
64.2%
away_-0.5
35.8%
home_+1.5
84.1%
away_-1.5
15.9%
home_+2.5
94.5%
away_-2.5
5.5%
total_exact
exact_0
8.5%
exact_1
18.7%
exact_2
26.1%
exact_3
21.5%
exact_4
13.7%
exact_5
7.0%
exact_6
3.0%
exact_7plus
1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
22.8%
draw
44.8%
away
32.4%
total
over_0.5
65.5%
under_0.5
34.5%
over_1.5
28.8%
under_1.5
71.2%
over_2.5
9.3%
under_2.5
90.7%
btts
yes
16.7%
no
83.3%
total_exact
exact_0
34.5%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
19.6%
exact_3
6.9%
exact_4plus
2.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
32.3%
draw
38.4%
away
29.3%
total
over_0.5
75.2%
under_0.5
24.8%
over_1.5
40.7%
under_1.5
59.3%
over_2.5
16.5%
under_2.5
83.5%
btts
yes
25.2%
no
74.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
17.2%
H/D
4.1%
H/A
1.6%
D/H
14.5%
D/D
17.2%
D/A
13.1%
A/H
2.5%
A/D
5.9%
A/A
24.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
60.9%
under_7.5
39.2%
over_8.5
49.4%
under_8.5
50.6%
over_9.5
38.6%
under_9.5
61.4%
over_10.5
29.0%
under_10.5
71.0%
over_11.5
21.0%
under_11.5
79.0%
over_12.5
14.7%
under_12.5
85.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
65.7%
under_3.5
34.3%
over_4.5
51.0%
under_4.5
49.0%
over_5.5
37.5%
under_5.5
62.5%
team_away
over_3.5
49.7%
under_3.5
50.3%
over_4.5
34.1%
under_4.5
65.9%
over_5.5
22.0%
under_5.5
78.0%
most
home
56.0%
draw
10.4%
away
33.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.9%
away_+3.5
74.1%
home_-1.5
45.2%
away_+1.5
54.8%
home_-0.5
56.0%
away_+0.5
44.0%
home_+0.5
66.4%
away_-0.5
33.6%
home_+1.5
75.6%
away_-1.5
24.4%
home_+3.5
89.0%
away_-3.5
11.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
60.3%
under_22.5
39.7%
over_24.5
48.2%
under_24.5
51.8%
over_26.5
36.5%
under_26.5
63.5%
over_28.5
26.2%
under_28.5
73.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
72.5%
under_10.5
27.5%
over_12.5
56.9%
under_12.5
43.1%
over_14.5
41.3%
under_14.5
58.7%
team_away
over_10.5
49.4%
under_10.5
50.6%
over_12.5
32.3%
under_12.5
67.7%
over_14.5
19.2%
under_14.5
80.8%
most
home
64.1%
draw
5.6%
away
30.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
39.9%
away_+4.5
60.1%
home_-2.5
52.1%
away_+2.5
47.9%
home_-0.5
64.1%
away_+0.5
35.9%
home_+0.5
69.8%
away_-0.5
30.2%
home_+2.5
79.6%
away_-2.5
20.4%
home_+4.5
87.2%
away_-4.5
12.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
70.8%
under_6.5
29.3%
over_7.5
59.6%
under_7.5
40.4%
over_8.5
48.3%
under_8.5
51.7%
over_9.5
37.7%
under_9.5
62.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
65.9%
under_3.5
34.1%
over_4.5
50.6%
under_4.5
49.4%
over_5.5
36.7%
under_5.5
63.3%
team_away
over_3.5
49.5%
under_3.5
50.5%
over_4.5
33.4%
under_4.5
66.6%
over_5.5
21.0%
under_5.5
79.0%
most
home
56.2%
draw
11.3%
away
32.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
33.6%
away_+2.5
66.5%
home_-0.5
56.2%
away_+0.5
43.8%
home_+0.5
67.5%
away_-0.5
32.5%
home_+2.5
85.1%
away_-2.5
14.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
71.6%
under_2.5
28.4%
over_3.5
51.6%
under_3.5
48.4%
over_4.5
33.0%
under_4.5
67.0%
over_5.5
18.9%
under_5.5
81.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
51.4%
under_1.5
48.6%
over_2.5
25.9%
under_2.5
74.1%
team_away
over_1.5
58.9%
under_1.5
41.1%
over_2.5
33.1%
under_2.5
66.9%
most
home
34.4%
draw
20.7%
away
44.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
17.9%
away_+1.5
82.1%
home_-0.5
34.4%
away_+0.5
65.6%
home_+0.5
55.1%
away_-0.5
44.9%
home_+1.5
74.0%
away_-1.5
26.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
75.8%
under_20.5
24.2%
over_22.5
63.8%
under_22.5
36.2%
over_24.5
50.7%
under_24.5
49.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
72.4%
under_9.5
27.6%
over_11.5
54.0%
under_11.5
46.0%
over_13.5
35.9%
under_13.5
64.1%
team_away
over_9.5
75.6%
under_9.5
24.4%
over_11.5
58.0%
under_11.5
42.0%
over_13.5
39.9%
under_13.5
60.1%
most
home
43.8%
draw
6.6%
away
49.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.6%
away_+3.5
74.4%
home_-0.5
43.8%
away_+0.5
56.2%
home_+2.5
63.4%
away_-2.5
36.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
21.6%
no
78.4%
home
yes
11.6%
no
88.4%
away
yes
11.3%
no
88.7%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Serie A
Como
Roma