Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Fiorentina38.7%
Win probability · fair 2.59
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely70.6%Fair 1.42
Draw or FiorentinaLikely67.4%Fair 1.48
Genoa or drawLikely61.3%Fair 1.63
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Genoa and Fiorentina almost evenly, Fiorentina marginally on top at 39%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. 2) Hamed Junior Traore drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. 3) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Genoa, 3 draws and 2 for Fiorentina, averaging 2.0 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Genoa W0 D1 L5, Fiorentina W2 D1 L3. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals44.0%@ 2.27
Over 9.5 corners39.0%@ 2.56
Fiorentina win38.7%@ 2.59
Medium risk
Under 2.5 goals56.0%@ 1.79
Both teams to score50.3%@ 1.99
Over 8.5 corners48.8%@ 2.05
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.35
0-1 correct score10.3%@ 9.73
1-0 correct score9.7%@ 10.30
Model vs market
Genoa
32.6%
Draw
28.7%
Fiorentina
38.7%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely70.6%Fair 1.42
Over 2.5Unlikely44.0%Fair 2.27
BTTS · YesClose call50.3%Fair 1.99
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call48.8%Fair 2.05
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely39.0%Fair 2.56
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely30.2%Fair 3.31
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot22.8%Fair 4.39
Most cornersGenoa52.5%Fiorentina36.7%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.1%Fair 1.61
Over 24.5 shotsClose call50.1%Fair 1.99
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely38.5%Fair 2.60
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot28.0%Fair 3.57
Recent shot volume
Genoa11.0 taken15.2 faced
Fiorentina14.7 taken15.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Genoa (4 games)
5.2 / 6.5
Fiorentina (4 games)
7.8 / 9.0
Totals line guide
0.5·1.570.6%2.544.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.570.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
GenoaLLLLD
FiorentinaDLLLW
Last 5 meetings: Genoa 0 · 3 draws · Fiorentina 2 · 2.0 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Hamed Junior TraoreGenoa · key player
To score26.7%3.75
1+ on target56.1%1.78
2+ shots58.6%1.71
Shots/90 2.66SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.42
Moise KeanFiorentina · key player
To score34.9%2.87
1+ on target73.5%1.36
2+ shots84.8%1.18
Shots/90 3.84SoT/90 1.52Goals/90 0.49
Stephan El ShaarawyGenoa · in form
To score7.4%13.51
1+ on target29.7%3.37
2+ shots20.7%4.83
Shots/90 2.3SoT/90 0.96Goals/90 0.21
BetoFiorentina · in form
To score22.0%4.55
1+ on target45.4%2.20
2+ shots42.8%2.34
Shots/90 2.82SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.48
Lorenzo ColomboGenoa · in form
To score13.8%7.25
1+ on target44.5%2.25
2+ shots47.0%2.13
Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.22
Alieu NjieFiorentina · in form
To score5.7%17.54
1+ on target25.5%3.92
2+ shots12.8%7.81
Shots/90 2.12SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.2
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Genoa win2.93
Draw3.49
Fiorentina win2.69
Both teams to score1.99
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.42
Over 2.5 goals2.27
Over 3.5 goals4.36
Genoa most2.93
Fiorentina most2.69
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.63
Over 8.5 corners2.01
Over 9.5 corners2.56
Over 10.5 corners3.40
Genoa most1.90
Fiorentina most2.71
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.34
Over 3.5 cards1.80
Over 4.5 cards2.72
Over 5.5 cards4.56
Genoa most3.21
Fiorentina most2.04
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.45
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.16
Over 9.5 SoT2.81
Genoa most2.04
Fiorentina most2.56
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.61
Over 24.5 shots1.99
Over 26.5 shots2.60
Over 28.5 shots3.57
Genoa most1.71
Fiorentina most2.82
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.24
Over 22.5 fouls1.44
Over 24.5 fouls1.75
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
62.1%
Over 24.5
50.1%
Over 26.5
38.5%
Over 28.5
28.0%
Most: Genoa
58.6%
Most: Fiorentina
35.5%
Genoa Over 13.2
46.5%
Fiorentina Over 13.2
30.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
69.1%
Over 7.5
57.7%
Over 8.5
46.2%
Over 9.5
35.6%
Most: Genoa
49.1%
Most: Fiorentina
39.1%
Genoa Over 4.2
44.4%
Fiorentina Over 4.2
37.2%
Cards
Over 2.5
74.6%
Over 3.5
55.4%
Over 4.5
36.8%
Most: Genoa
31.2%
Most: Fiorentina
49.1%
Genoa Over 1.8
51.2%
Fiorentina Over 1.8
63.9%
Genoa: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Hamed Junior Traore
2.66
1.11
0.42
56.1%
58.6%
26.7%
Stephan El Shaarawy
2.3
0.96
0.21
29.7%
20.7%
7.4%
Lorenzo Colombo
2.34
0.87
0.22
44.5%
47.0%
13.8%
Junior Messias
2.53
0.76
0.19
26.5%
27.3%
7.4%
Vitinha
2.45
0.63
0.18
33.6%
47.2%
11.0%
Fiorentina: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Moise Kean
3.84
1.52
0.49
73.5%
84.8%
34.9%
Beto
2.82
1.17
0.48
45.4%
42.8%
22.0%
Alieu Njie
2.12
1.01
0.2
25.5%
12.8%
5.7%
Franco Mastantuono
3.32
0.96
0.26
41.6%
55.4%
13.5%
Albert Gudmundsson
1.81
0.76
0.29
39.9%
34.2%
17.7%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Genoa clean sheet
28.6%
Fiorentina clean sheet
30.5%
Genoa win to nil
19.2%
Fiorentina win to nil
21.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
34.1%
draw
28.7%
away
37.2%
double_chance
1X
62.8%
12
71.3%
X2
65.9%
dnb
home
47.8%
away
52.2%
btts
yes
50.3%
no
49.7%
clean_sheet
home
28.6%
away
30.5%
win_to_nil
home
19.2%
away
21.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1
19.6%
home_by_2
9.8%
home_by_3plus
4.7%
away_by_1
20.7%
away_by_2
10.9%
away_by_3plus
5.6%
correct_score
0-0
9.4%
0-1
10.3%
0-2
6.8%
0-3
2.9%
0-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-0
9.7%
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.1%
1-3
3.4%
1-4
1.1%
1-5
0.3%
2-0
6.2%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
4.8%
2-3
2.0%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
2.4%
3-1
3.1%
3-2
1.9%
3-3
0.8%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.7%
4-1
0.9%
4-2
0.6%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.3%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
90.6%
under_0.5
9.4%
over_1.5
70.6%
under_1.5
29.4%
over_2.5
44.0%
under_2.5
56.0%
over_3.5
23.0%
under_3.5
77.1%
over_4.5
10.1%
under_4.5
89.9%
over_5.5
3.8%
under_5.5
96.2%
odd_even
odd
48.3%
even
51.7%
team_home
over_0.5
69.5%
under_0.5
30.5%
over_1.5
33.3%
under_1.5
66.7%
over_2.5
11.8%
under_2.5
88.2%
team_away
over_0.5
71.4%
under_0.5
28.6%
over_1.5
35.6%
under_1.5
64.4%
over_2.5
13.2%
under_2.5
86.8%
most
home
34.1%
draw
28.7%
away
37.2%
handicap
home_-2.5
4.7%
away_+2.5
95.3%
home_-1.5
14.5%
away_+1.5
85.5%
home_-0.5
34.1%
away_+0.5
65.9%
home_+0.5
62.8%
away_-0.5
37.2%
home_+1.5
83.5%
away_-1.5
16.6%
home_+2.5
94.4%
away_-2.5
5.6%
total_exact
exact_0
9.4%
exact_1
20.0%
exact_2
26.6%
exact_3
21.1%
exact_4
12.9%
exact_5
6.3%
exact_6
2.6%
exact_7plus
1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
20.8%
draw
44.2%
away
34.9%
total
over_0.5
66.0%
under_0.5
34.0%
over_1.5
29.3%
under_1.5
70.7%
over_2.5
9.5%
under_2.5
90.5%
btts
yes
16.7%
no
83.3%
total_exact
exact_0
34.0%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
19.8%
exact_3
7.1%
exact_4plus
2.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
34.5%
draw
38.3%
away
27.2%
total
over_0.5
75.2%
under_0.5
24.8%
over_1.5
40.6%
under_1.5
59.4%
over_2.5
16.5%
under_2.5
83.5%
btts
yes
25.0%
no
75.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
16.0%
H/D
3.6%
H/A
1.3%
D/H
15.2%
D/D
16.9%
D/A
12.0%
A/H
2.9%
A/D
6.7%
A/A
25.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
61.3%
under_7.5
38.7%
over_8.5
49.9%
under_8.5
50.1%
over_9.5
39.0%
under_9.5
61.0%
over_10.5
29.4%
under_10.5
70.6%
over_11.5
21.3%
under_11.5
78.6%
over_12.5
15.0%
under_12.5
85.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
63.9%
under_3.5
36.1%
over_4.5
48.9%
under_4.5
51.1%
over_5.5
35.5%
under_5.5
64.5%
team_away
over_3.5
52.6%
under_3.5
47.4%
over_4.5
37.1%
under_4.5
62.9%
over_5.5
24.5%
under_5.5
75.5%
most
home
52.6%
draw
10.6%
away
36.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
23.3%
away_+3.5
76.7%
home_-1.5
41.9%
away_+1.5
58.1%
home_-0.5
52.6%
away_+0.5
47.4%
home_+0.5
63.2%
away_-0.5
36.8%
home_+1.5
72.8%
away_-1.5
27.2%
home_+3.5
87.2%
away_-3.5
12.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
62.1%
under_22.5
37.9%
over_24.5
50.1%
under_24.5
49.9%
over_26.5
38.5%
under_26.5
61.5%
over_28.5
28.0%
under_28.5
72.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
70.4%
under_10.5
29.6%
over_12.5
54.5%
under_12.5
45.5%
over_14.5
38.8%
under_14.5
61.2%
team_away
over_10.5
55.1%
under_10.5
44.9%
over_12.5
37.8%
under_12.5
62.2%
over_14.5
23.6%
under_14.5
76.4%
most
home
58.6%
draw
5.9%
away
35.5%
handicap
home_-4.5
34.7%
away_+4.5
65.3%
home_-2.5
46.5%
away_+2.5
53.5%
home_-0.5
58.6%
away_+0.5
41.4%
home_+0.5
64.5%
away_-0.5
35.5%
home_+2.5
75.1%
away_-2.5
24.9%
home_+4.5
83.7%
away_-4.5
16.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
69.1%
under_6.5
30.9%
over_7.5
57.7%
under_7.5
42.3%
over_8.5
46.2%
under_8.5
53.8%
over_9.5
35.7%
under_9.5
64.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
60.3%
under_3.5
39.7%
over_4.5
44.4%
under_4.5
55.6%
over_5.5
30.7%
under_5.5
69.3%
team_away
over_3.5
53.3%
under_3.5
46.7%
over_4.5
37.2%
under_4.5
62.8%
over_5.5
24.2%
under_5.5
75.8%
most
home
49.1%
draw
11.8%
away
39.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
27.1%
away_+2.5
73.0%
home_-0.5
49.1%
away_+0.5
50.9%
home_+0.5
60.9%
away_-0.5
39.1%
home_+2.5
80.7%
away_-2.5
19.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
74.6%
under_2.5
25.4%
over_3.5
55.4%
under_3.5
44.6%
over_4.5
36.8%
under_4.5
63.2%
over_5.5
21.9%
under_5.5
78.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
51.2%
under_1.5
48.8%
over_2.5
25.7%
under_2.5
74.3%
team_away
over_1.5
63.9%
under_1.5
36.1%
over_2.5
38.4%
under_2.5
61.6%
most
home
31.2%
draw
19.7%
away
49.1%
handicap
home_-1.5
16.0%
away_+1.5
84.0%
home_-0.5
31.2%
away_+0.5
68.8%
home_+0.5
50.9%
away_-0.5
49.1%
home_+1.5
70.0%
away_-1.5
30.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
80.4%
under_20.5
19.6%
over_22.5
69.5%
under_22.5
30.5%
over_24.5
57.1%
under_24.5
42.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
76.8%
under_9.5
23.2%
over_11.5
59.6%
under_11.5
40.4%
over_13.5
41.6%
under_13.5
58.5%
team_away
over_9.5
78.1%
under_9.5
21.9%
over_11.5
61.3%
under_11.5
38.8%
over_13.5
43.3%
under_13.5
56.7%
most
home
45.5%
draw
6.5%
away
48.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
27.4%
away_+3.5
72.6%
home_-0.5
45.5%
away_+0.5
54.5%
home_+2.5
64.6%
away_-2.5
35.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
18.1%
no
82.0%
home
yes
9.7%
no
90.3%
away
yes
9.3%
no
90.8%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Serie A
Genoa
Fiorentina