Freiburg vs Schalke 04 prediction & probabilities (2026-10-09)

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Freiburg vs Schalke 04: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Freiburg

WWWWD

Fri, 9 Oct 20269/1001:00UK
Schalke 04

LLDWD

Model’s top convictions

85%

Freiburg or draw

84%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Over 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Freiburg68.0%

Win probability · fair 1.47

Top signals

Freiburg or drawVery likely84.8%Fair 1.18
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely84.3%Fair 1.19
Over 2.5 goalsLikely63.7%Fair 1.57

Model read

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Freiburg heavy favourites at 68% when Freiburg meet Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga on 9 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 58%. • Form guide over the last six: Freiburg W4 D1 L1, Schalke 04 W1 D3 L2. • As a promoted side, Schalke 04 carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Igor Matanovic drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 5 wins for Freiburg, 0 draws and 0 for Schalke 04 at 3.2 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners38.7%@ 2.58
Draw or Schalke 0432.0%@ 3.13
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.9%@ 1.67
Both teams to score58.5%@ 1.71
Over 9.5 corners49.0%@ 2.04
Random finds

2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.20
2-0 correct score9.3%@ 10.72
1-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.83

Model vs market

Freiburg

68.0%

Draw

16.8%

Schalke 04

15.2%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely84.3%Fair 1.19
Over 2.5Likely63.7%Fair 1.57
BTTS · YesClose call58.5%Fair 1.71

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.9%Fair 1.67
Over 9.5 cornersClose call49.0%Fair 2.04
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely38.7%Fair 2.58
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot29.5%Fair 3.39
Most cornersFreiburg57.3%Schalke 0432.0%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely73.9%Fair 1.35
Over 24.5 shotsLikely62.8%Fair 1.59
Over 26.5 shotsClose call50.8%Fair 1.97
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely39.0%Fair 2.56

Recent shot volume

Freiburg15.3 taken11.0 faced
Schalke 0412.3 taken15.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

Freiburg (4 games)

11.5 / 7.5

Schalke 04 (4 games)

7.5 / 4.2

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.3%2.563.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.563.7%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

FreiburgWWWWD
Schalke 04LLDWD

Last 5 meetings: Freiburg 5 · 0 draws · Schalke 04 0 · 3.2 goals/game.

2023-04-23Freiburg 4-0 Schalke 04
2022-10-30Schalke 04 0-2 Freiburg
2021-04-17Freiburg 4-0 Schalke 04
2020-12-16Schalke 04 0-2 Freiburg
2020-06-27Freiburg 4-0 Schalke 04

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

FreiburgSchalke 04
League position#3 of 18#11 of 18
Record W-D-L3-1-01-2-1
Current streakD1D1
Record, home vs away2-0-01-0-1
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 3.81 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 78% · BTTS in 58%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Igor MatanovicFreiburg · key player
To score27.3%3.66
1+ on target47.1%2.12
2+ shots46.0%2.17
Shots/90 3.17SoT/90 1.3Goals/90 0.65
Junior AdamuSchalke 04 · key player
To score3.1%32.26
1+ on target31.4%3.18
2+ shots36.7%2.72
Shots/90 2.01SoT/90 0.59Goals/90 0.05
Derry ScherhantFreiburg · in form
To score15.9%6.29
1+ on target36.6%2.73
2+ shots39.8%2.51
Shots/90 2.77SoT/90 0.92Goals/90 0.35
Eric Junior Dina EbimbeSchalke 04 · in form
To score12.8%7.81
1+ on target21.7%4.61
2+ shots27.4%3.65
Shots/90 2.02SoT/90 0.48Goals/90 0.27
Vincenzo GrifoFreiburg · in form
To score17.6%5.68
1+ on target43.0%2.33
2+ shots37.0%2.70
Shots/90 1.93SoT/90 0.84Goals/90 0.29
Hee-Chan HwangSchalke 04 · in form
To score8.6%11.63
1+ on target18.0%5.56
2+ shots10.7%9.35
Shots/90 1.17SoT/90 0.42Goals/90 0.19

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Freiburg win1.57
Draw4.97
Schalke 04 win6.18
Both teams to score1.71

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.57
Over 3.5 goals2.40
Over 4.5 goals4.25
Freiburg most1.57
Schalke 04 most6.18

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.99
Over 10.5 corners2.60
Freiburg most1.74
Schalke 04 most3.12

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.43
Over 3.5 cards2.06
Over 4.5 cards3.39
Over 5.5 cards6.37
Freiburg most2.88
Schalke 04 most2.30

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.18
Over 7.5 SoT1.32
Over 8.5 SoT1.53
Over 9.5 SoT1.84
Freiburg most1.64
Schalke 04 most3.51

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.59
Over 26.5 shots1.97
Over 28.5 shots2.56
Freiburg most1.59
Schalke 04 most3.17

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.03
Over 22.5 fouls2.70
Over 24.5 fouls3.78
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 73.9% Over 24.5 62.8% Over 26.5 50.8% Over 28.5 39.0%
Most: Freiburg 62.9% Most: Schalke 04 31.5%
Freiburg Over 13.2 58.2% Schalke 04 Over 13.2 35.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 84.7% Over 7.5 75.9% Over 8.5 65.5% Over 9.5 54.2%
Most: Freiburg 60.9% Most: Schalke 04 28.5%
Freiburg Over 4.2 65.7% Schalke 04 Over 4.2 42.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.9% Over 3.5 48.7% Over 4.5 29.5%
Most: Freiburg 34.8% Most: Schalke 04 43.4%
Freiburg Over 1.8 50.6% Schalke 04 Over 1.8 57.0%

Freiburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Igor Matanovic 3.17 1.3 0.65 47.1% 46.0% 27.3%
Derry Scherhant 2.77 0.92 0.35 36.6% 39.8% 15.9%
Vincenzo Grifo 1.93 0.84 0.29 43.0% 37.0% 17.6%
Yuito Suzuki 2.1 0.82 0.36 46.2% 47.1% 23.8%
Lucas Höler 1.55 0.74 0.21 39.9% 28.9% 13.4%

Schalke 04: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Junior Adamu 2.01 0.59 0.05 31.4% 36.7% 3.1%
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe 2.02 0.48 0.27 21.7% 27.4% 12.8%
Hee-Chan Hwang 1.17 0.42 0.19 18.0% 10.7% 8.6%
Robin Gosens 0.84 0.26 0.16 19.6% 15.7% 12.5%
Timo Becker 0.46 0.08 0 6.9% 6.5% 0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Freiburg clean sheet 34.0%
Schalke 04 clean sheet 10.7%
Freiburg win to nil 29.8%
Schalke 04 win to nil 6.5%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 63.7% draw 20.1% away 16.2%
double_chance
1X 83.8% 12 79.9% X2 36.3%
dnb
home 79.7% away 20.3%
btts
yes 58.5% no 41.5%
clean_sheet
home 35.0% away 10.8%
win_to_nil
home 30.8% away 6.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.4% home_by_2 19.2% home_by_3plus 22.1%
away_by_1 10.3% away_by_2 4.2% away_by_3plus 1.6%
correct_score
0-0 4.2% 0-1 3.5% 0-2 2.1%
0-3 0.7% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 7.9% 1-1 9.2% 1-2 4.6%
1-3 1.6% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.3% 2-1 9.8% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.9% 3-1 7.3% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 3.9% 4-1 4.1% 4-2 2.2%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.7% 5-1 1.8% 5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.8%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 100.0% p 9.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.8% under_0.5 4.2% over_1.5 84.4%
under_1.5 15.7% over_2.5 63.7% under_2.5 36.3%
over_3.5 41.7% under_3.5 58.4% over_4.5 23.5%
under_4.5 76.5% over_5.5 11.6% under_5.5 88.4%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 89.3% under_0.5 10.8% over_1.5 65.3%
under_1.5 34.7% over_2.5 38.7% under_2.5 61.3%
team_away
over_0.5 65.0% under_0.5 35.0% over_1.5 28.3%
under_1.5 71.7% over_2.5 9.0% under_2.5 91.0%
most
home 63.7% draw 20.1% away 16.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 22.1% away_+2.5 77.9% home_-1.5 41.2%
away_+1.5 58.8% home_-0.5 63.7% away_+0.5 36.3%
home_+0.5 83.8% away_-0.5 16.2% home_+1.5 94.1%
away_-1.5 5.9% home_+2.5 98.4% away_-2.5 1.6%
total_exact
exact_0 4.2% exact_1 11.5% exact_2 20.6%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 18.1% exact_5 11.9%
exact_6 6.6% exact_7plus 5.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.1% draw 44.6% away 19.3%
total
over_0.5 65.2% under_0.5 34.8% over_1.5 28.4%
under_1.5 71.6% over_2.5 9.1% under_2.5 90.9%
btts
yes 15.9% no 84.2%
total_exact
exact_0 34.8% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.4%
exact_3 6.8% exact_4plus 2.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.7% draw 33.8% away 23.6%
total
over_0.5 81.0% under_0.5 19.0% over_1.5 49.4%
under_1.5 50.6% over_2.5 23.2% under_2.5 76.8%
btts
yes 30.5% no 69.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 29.5% H/D 4.9% H/A 1.8%
D/H 19.0% D/D 15.1% D/A 10.5%
A/H 2.8% A/D 4.5% A/A 12.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.8% under_7.5 26.2% over_8.5 62.3%
under_8.5 37.7% over_9.5 50.2% under_9.5 49.8%
over_10.5 38.5% under_10.5 61.6% over_11.5 28.1%
under_11.5 71.9% over_12.5 19.5% under_12.5 80.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.7% under_3.5 24.3% over_4.5 60.9%
under_4.5 39.1% over_5.5 45.7% under_5.5 54.3%
team_away
over_3.5 59.0% under_3.5 41.0% over_4.5 41.6%
under_4.5 58.4% over_5.5 26.9% under_5.5 73.1%
most
home 57.5% draw 10.5% away 32.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.3% away_+3.5 73.7% home_-1.5 46.5%
away_+1.5 53.5% home_-0.5 57.5% away_+0.5 42.6%
home_+0.5 67.9% away_-0.5 32.1% home_+1.5 77.1%
away_-1.5 22.9% home_+3.5 90.2% away_-3.5 9.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.9% under_22.5 26.1% over_24.5 62.8%
under_24.5 37.2% over_26.5 50.8% under_26.5 49.2%
over_28.5 39.0% under_28.5 61.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 80.2% under_10.5 19.8% over_12.5 66.1%
under_12.5 33.9% over_14.5 50.2% under_14.5 49.8%
team_away
over_10.5 61.6% under_10.5 38.4% over_12.5 43.7%
under_12.5 56.3% over_14.5 28.1% under_14.5 71.9%
most
home 62.9% draw 5.6% away 31.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.9% away_+4.5 61.1% home_-2.5 50.9%
away_+2.5 49.1% home_-0.5 62.9% away_+0.5 37.1%
home_+0.5 68.5% away_-0.5 31.5% home_+2.5 78.4%
away_-2.5 21.6% home_+4.5 86.2% away_-4.5 13.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 84.7% under_6.5 15.3% over_7.5 75.9%
under_7.5 24.1% over_8.5 65.5% under_8.5 34.5%
over_9.5 54.2% under_9.5 45.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.5% under_3.5 20.5% over_4.5 65.7%
under_4.5 34.3% over_5.5 50.8% under_5.5 49.2%
team_away
over_3.5 60.1% under_3.5 39.9% over_4.5 42.5%
under_4.5 57.5% over_5.5 27.5% under_5.5 72.5%
most
home 60.9% draw 10.6% away 28.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 38.3% away_+2.5 61.8% home_-0.5 60.9%
away_+0.5 39.1% home_+0.5 71.5% away_-0.5 28.5%
home_+2.5 87.5% away_-2.5 12.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.9% under_2.5 30.1% over_3.5 48.7%
under_3.5 51.3% over_4.5 29.5% under_4.5 70.5%
over_5.5 15.7% under_5.5 84.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 50.6% under_1.5 49.4% over_2.5 24.2%
under_2.5 75.8%
team_away
over_1.5 57.0% under_1.5 43.0% over_2.5 29.9%
under_2.5 70.1%
most
home 34.8% draw 21.8% away 43.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.4% away_+1.5 82.6% home_-0.5 34.8%
away_+0.5 65.2% home_+0.5 56.6% away_-0.5 43.5%
home_+1.5 76.1% away_-1.5 23.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 49.2% under_20.5 50.8% over_22.5 37.0%
under_22.5 63.0% over_24.5 26.4% under_24.5 73.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 48.8% under_9.5 51.2% over_11.5 31.7%
under_11.5 68.4% over_13.5 18.7% under_13.5 81.3%
team_away
over_9.5 59.0% under_9.5 41.0% over_11.5 41.8%
under_11.5 58.2% over_13.5 27.2% under_13.5 72.8%
most
home 39.5% draw 6.4% away 54.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.5% away_+3.5 77.5% home_-0.5 39.5%
away_+0.5 60.5% home_+2.5 58.9% away_-2.5 41.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.9% no 81.1%
home
yes 3.4% no 96.6%
away
yes 16.0% no 84.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Freiburg predictions · Schalke 04 predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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