Buyuksehyr vs Genclerbirligi prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

By /

Buyuksehyr vs Genclerbirligi: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 19 Sep 2026

Süper Lig
Buyuksehyr

WLDLL

Sat, 19 Sep 202618:00UK
Genclerbirligi

WWDLL

Model’s top convictions

80%

Buyuksehyr or draw

78%

Over 1.5 goals

55%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).

Model pick

Buyuksehyr56.7%

Win probability · fair 1.76

Top signals

Buyuksehyr or drawVery likely80.3%Fair 1.25
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely78.4%Fair 1.28
Over 8.5 cornersClose call55.1%Fair 1.81

Model read

Few Süper Lig fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Buyuksehyr carry a 57% win probability against Genclerbirligi on 19 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Buyuksehyr at 67%. Caution noted. • No strong lean on goals (55% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Form guide over the last six: Buyuksehyr W2 D1 L3, Genclerbirligi W3 D1 L2. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 4 wins for Buyuksehyr, 0 draws and 1 for Genclerbirligi, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).

Value & higher-risk angles

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

High risk

Over 9.5 corners44.3%@ 2.26
Draw or Genclerbirligi43.3%@ 2.31
Over 10.5 corners34.3%@ 2.92
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals54.5%@ 1.83
Both teams to score54.0%@ 1.85
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.2%@ 8.92
1-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.91
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.10

Model vs market

Buyuksehyr

56.7%-10.0%

Draw

23.6%+3.2%

GEN

19.7%+6.8%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13)

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely78.4%Fair 1.28
Over 2.5Close call54.5%Fair 1.83
BTTS · YesClose call54.0%Fair 1.85

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call55.1%Fair 1.81
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely44.3%Fair 2.26
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.3%Fair 2.92
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot25.7%Fair 3.89
Most cornersBuyuksehyr55.8%Genclerbirligi33.3%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely66.1%Fair 1.51
Over 24.5 shotsClose call54.2%Fair 1.85
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely42.2%Fair 2.37
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely31.0%Fair 3.22

Recent shot volume

Buyuksehyr11.5 taken14.2 faced
Genclerbirligi13.0 taken17.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.4%2.554.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).

Form & head-to-head

BuyuksehyrWLDLL
GenclerbirligiWWDLL

Last 5 meetings: Buyuksehyr 4 · 0 draws · Genclerbirligi 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-04-11Buyuksehyr 3-0 Genclerbirligi
2025-11-07Genclerbirligi 2-1 Buyuksehyr
2021-03-07Genclerbirligi 0-1 Buyuksehyr
2020-11-08Buyuksehyr 2-1 Genclerbirligi
2020-01-31Buyuksehyr 3-1 Genclerbirligi

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BuyuksehyrGenclerbirligi
League position#13 of 20#12 of 20
Record W-D-L1-1-32-1-2
Current streakL2L2
Points per game0.801.40
Record, home vs away1-1-11-0-1
PPG, home vs away1.33·
Goals scored per game1.201.00
Goals conceded per game2.201.80
Scored, home vs away1.67·
Conceded, home vs away1.33·
1st half goals per game0.600.40
2nd half goals per game0.600.60
Corners won per game4.64.0
Cards per game2.82.0
Fouls per game13.212.8
Red cards this season10
Shots per game12.013.0
Shots faced per game14.818.2
Shots on target per game3.04.2
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%60.0%

BTTS rate

60.0%60.0%

Clean sheets

20.0%20.0%

Rates this season:BuyuksehyrGenclerbirligi

League averages this season: 2.91 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 47%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Buyuksehyr win1.421.76
Draw4.334.24
Genclerbirligi win6.505.08
Over 2.5 goals1.601.83
Under 2.5 goals2.302.20

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Buyuksehyr win1.76
Draw4.24
Genclerbirligi win5.09
Both teams to score1.85

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.84
Over 3.5 goals3.11
Buyuksehyr most1.76
Genclerbirligi most5.09

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.44
Over 8.5 corners1.75
Over 9.5 corners2.23
Over 10.5 corners2.99
Buyuksehyr most1.79
Genclerbirligi most3.00

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.57
Over 4.5 cards2.25
Over 5.5 cards3.63
Buyuksehyr most2.58
Genclerbirligi most2.41

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.32
Over 7.5 SoT1.56
Over 8.5 SoT1.92
Over 9.5 SoT2.48
Buyuksehyr most1.61
Genclerbirligi most3.74

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.51
Over 24.5 shots1.85
Over 26.5 shots2.37
Over 28.5 shots3.22
Buyuksehyr most1.54
Genclerbirligi most3.38

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.16
Over 22.5 fouls1.32
Over 24.5 fouls1.61
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 66.1% Over 24.5 54.2% Over 26.5 42.1% Over 28.5 31.0%
Most: Buyuksehyr 64.9% Most: Genclerbirligi 29.6%
Buyuksehyr Over 13.2 53.6% Genclerbirligi Over 13.2 28.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.6% Over 7.5 64.2% Over 8.5 52.1% Over 9.5 40.3%
Most: Buyuksehyr 62.0% Most: Genclerbirligi 26.8%
Buyuksehyr Over 4.2 57.4% Genclerbirligi Over 4.2 31.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.2% Over 3.5 63.6% Over 4.5 44.3%
Most: Buyuksehyr 38.8% Most: Genclerbirligi 41.5%
Buyuksehyr Over 1.8 63.3% Genclerbirligi Over 1.8 65.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Buyuksehyr clean sheet 36.2%
Genclerbirligi clean sheet 15.6%
Buyuksehyr win to nil 29.9%
Genclerbirligi win to nil 9.4%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 56.7% draw 23.6% away 19.7%
double_chance
1X 80.4% 12 76.4% X2 43.3%
dnb
home 74.3% away 25.7%
btts
yes 54.0% no 46.0%
clean_sheet
home 36.6% away 15.7%
win_to_nil
home 30.3% away 9.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.6% home_by_2 17.6% home_by_3plus 15.6%
away_by_1 12.5% away_by_2 5.2% away_by_3plus 2.0%
correct_score
0-0 6.3% 0-1 5.2% 0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.0% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.1% 1-1 11.2% 1-2 5.4%
1-3 1.8% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.9% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.1% 3-1 6.1% 3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.8% 4-1 2.8% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.1% 5-1 1.1% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.7% under_0.5 6.3% over_1.5 78.4%
under_1.5 21.6% over_2.5 54.5% under_2.5 45.5%
over_3.5 32.1% under_3.5 67.9% over_4.5 16.2%
under_4.5 83.8% over_5.5 7.0% under_5.5 93.0%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 84.4% under_0.5 15.7% over_1.5 55.3%
under_1.5 44.7% over_2.5 28.4% under_2.5 71.6%
team_away
over_0.5 63.4% under_0.5 36.6% over_1.5 26.6%
under_1.5 73.4% over_2.5 8.1% under_2.5 91.9%
most
home 56.7% draw 23.6% away 19.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 15.6% away_+2.5 84.5% home_-1.5 33.2%
away_+1.5 66.9% home_-0.5 56.7% away_+0.5 43.3%
home_+0.5 80.4% away_-0.5 19.7% home_+1.5 92.9%
away_-1.5 7.1% home_+2.5 98.1% away_-2.5 2.0%
total_exact
exact_0 6.3% exact_1 15.3% exact_2 24.0%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.0% exact_5 9.1%
exact_6 4.4% exact_7plus 2.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 52.9% draw 34.7% away 12.4%
total
over_0.5 75.3% under_0.5 24.7% over_1.5 40.8%
under_1.5 59.2% over_2.5 16.6% under_2.5 83.4%
btts
yes 19.4% no 80.7%
total_exact
exact_0 24.7% exact_1 34.5% exact_2 24.2%
exact_3 11.3% exact_4plus 5.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.8% draw 37.1% away 25.1%
total
over_0.5 76.6% under_0.5 23.4% over_1.5 42.7%
under_1.5 57.4% over_2.5 18.0% under_2.5 82.0%
btts
yes 26.1% no 73.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 44.1% H/D 6.6% H/A 2.2%
D/H 13.1% D/D 12.9% D/A 8.7%
A/H 1.4% A/D 2.8% A/A 8.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.4% under_7.5 30.6% over_8.5 57.2%
under_8.5 42.8% over_9.5 44.9% under_9.5 55.1%
over_10.5 33.5% under_10.5 66.5% over_11.5 23.8%
under_11.5 76.3% over_12.5 16.0% under_12.5 84.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.0% under_3.5 28.0% over_4.5 56.5%
under_4.5 43.5% over_5.5 41.2% under_5.5 58.8%
team_away
over_3.5 56.4% under_3.5 43.6% over_4.5 39.2%
under_4.5 60.9% over_5.5 25.0% under_5.5 75.1%
most
home 55.9% draw 10.7% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.7% away_+3.5 75.3% home_-1.5 44.8%
away_+1.5 55.2% home_-0.5 55.9% away_+0.5 44.1%
home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4% home_+1.5 76.1%
away_-1.5 23.9% home_+3.5 89.7% away_-3.5 10.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 66.1% under_22.5 33.9% over_24.5 54.2%
under_24.5 45.9% over_26.5 42.2% under_26.5 57.9%
over_28.5 31.0% under_28.5 69.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.5% under_10.5 23.5% over_12.5 61.5%
under_12.5 38.5% over_14.5 45.7% under_14.5 54.3%
team_away
over_10.5 53.5% under_10.5 46.5% over_12.5 35.8%
under_12.5 64.2% over_14.5 21.8% under_14.5 78.3%
most
home 64.9% draw 5.5% away 29.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.7% away_+4.5 59.3% home_-2.5 52.9%
away_+2.5 47.1% home_-0.5 64.9% away_+0.5 35.1%
home_+0.5 70.4% away_-0.5 29.6% home_+2.5 80.1%
away_-2.5 20.0% home_+4.5 87.5% away_-4.5 12.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.6% under_6.5 24.4% over_7.5 64.2%
under_7.5 35.8% over_8.5 52.1% under_8.5 47.9%
over_9.5 40.3% under_9.5 59.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.0% under_3.5 27.0% over_4.5 57.4%
under_4.5 42.6% over_5.5 41.9% under_5.5 58.1%
team_away
over_3.5 49.1% under_3.5 50.9% over_4.5 31.6%
under_4.5 68.5% over_5.5 18.4% under_5.5 81.6%
most
home 62.0% draw 11.3% away 26.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 37.6% away_+2.5 62.5% home_-0.5 62.0%
away_+0.5 38.0% home_+0.5 73.2% away_-0.5 26.8%
home_+2.5 89.4% away_-2.5 10.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.2% under_2.5 18.9% over_3.5 63.6%
under_3.5 36.4% over_4.5 44.4% under_4.5 55.7%
over_5.5 27.5% under_5.5 72.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 63.3% under_1.5 36.7% over_2.5 36.4%
under_2.5 63.6%
team_away
over_1.5 65.1% under_1.5 34.9% over_2.5 38.3%
under_2.5 61.7%
most
home 38.8% draw 19.7% away 41.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.8% away_+1.5 78.2% home_-0.5 38.8%
away_+0.5 61.2% home_+0.5 58.5% away_-0.5 41.5%
home_+1.5 76.1% away_-1.5 23.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 86.1% under_20.5 14.0% over_22.5 75.5%
under_22.5 24.5% over_24.5 62.2% under_24.5 37.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 84.2% under_9.5 15.8% over_11.5 67.2%
under_11.5 32.8% over_13.5 47.0% under_13.5 53.0%
team_away
over_9.5 81.5% under_9.5 18.5% over_11.5 63.2%
under_11.5 36.8% over_13.5 42.6% under_13.5 57.4%
most
home 49.4% draw 7.3% away 43.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.6% away_+3.5 71.4% home_-0.5 49.4%
away_+0.5 50.6% home_+2.5 70.5% away_-2.5 29.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.6% no 84.4%
home
yes 5.8% no 94.2%
away
yes 10.4% no 89.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Buyuksehyr predictions · Genclerbirligi predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Süper LigBuyuksehyrGenclerbirligiTrack record