Valencia vs Sociedad prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Valencia vs Sociedad: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 20 Sep 2026

La Liga
Valencia

LLLLW

Sun, 20 Sep 202620/920:00UK24°C · Clear
Sociedad

LWDWL

Model’s top convictions

74%

Over 1.5 goals

71%

Valencia or draw

58%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Model pick

Valencia42.9%

Win probability · fair 2.33

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsLikely74.1%Fair 1.35
Valencia or drawLikely70.8%Fair 1.41
Over 8.5 cornersClose call58.4%Fair 1.71

Model read

Our engine prices Valencia at 43% for 20 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Notably, the model is warmer on Valencia than the market (35%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. For shots markets, Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld is the obvious watch at 0.9 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W1 D1 L4 for Valencia against W2 D1 L3 for Sociedad. The recent series reads 2 wins for Valencia, 1 draws and 2 for Sociedad over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.4%@ 2.11
Over 10.5 corners37.1%@ 2.70
Medium risk

Draw or Sociedad57.1%@ 1.75
Both teams to score53.2%@ 1.88
Under 2.5 goals51.6%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.0%@ 7.70
1-0 correct score10.0%@ 10.03
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.21

Model vs market

Valencia

42.9%+7.5%

Draw

27.9%+0.1%

Sociedad

29.2%-7.6%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.1%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.4%Fair 2.07
BTTS · YesClose call53.2%Fair 1.88

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call58.4%Fair 1.71
Over 9.5 cornersClose call47.4%Fair 2.11
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely37.1%Fair 2.70
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot28.1%Fair 3.56
Most cornersValencia53.7%Sociedad35.3%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.8%Fair 1.59
Over 24.5 shotsClose call50.2%Fair 1.99
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely37.9%Fair 2.64
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot26.9%Fair 3.71

Recent shot volume

Valencia8.7 taken14.3 faced
Sociedad12.2 taken14.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

Valencia (6 games)

4.0 / 5.0

Sociedad (6 games)

5.0 / 7.2

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.1%2.548.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.1%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.43, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Form & head-to-head

ValenciaLLLLW
SociedadLWDWL

Last 5 meetings: Valencia 2 · 1 draws · Sociedad 2 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-05-17Sociedad 3-4 Valencia
2025-08-16Valencia 1-1 Sociedad
2025-01-19Valencia 1-0 Sociedad
2024-09-28Sociedad 3-0 Valencia
2024-05-16Sociedad 1-0 Valencia

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ValenciaSociedad
League position#19 of 20#12 of 20
Record W-D-L1-1-42-1-3
Current streakW1L1
Points per game0.671.17
Record, home vs away0-1-21-0-2
PPG, home vs away0.331.00
Goals scored per game0.331.00
Goals conceded per game1.671.83
Scored, home vs away0.001.33
Conceded, home vs away2.002.33
1st half goals per game0.170.67
2nd half goals per game0.170.33
Corners won per game4.07.7
Cards per game2.02.5
Fouls per game10.812.5
Red cards this season01
Shots per game8.712.2
Shots faced per game14.314.8
Shots on target per game2.35.0
1st half shots per game4.05.0
2nd half shots per game5.07.2
xG for per game0.691.17
xG against per game1.721.88
Over 2.5 rate

33.3%66.7%

BTTS rate

16.7%50.0%

Clean sheets

33.3%16.7%

Rates this season:ValenciaSociedad

League averages this season: 3.08 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Arnaut Danjuma GroeneveldValencia · key player
To score8.3%12.05
1+ on target42.8%2.34
2+ shots38.1%2.62
Shots/90 2.13SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.14
Orri ÓskarssonSociedad · key player
To score25.2%3.97
1+ on target46.2%2.16
2+ shots32.9%3.04
Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 1.28Goals/90 0.6
Umar SadiqValencia · in form
To score19.2%5.21
1+ on target34.7%2.88
2+ shots32.7%3.06
Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.44
Mikel OyarzabalSociedad · in form
To score28.9%3.46
1+ on target53.8%1.86
2+ shots53.4%1.87
Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.42
Harvey ElliottValencia · in form
To score4.1%24.39
1+ on target15.4%6.49
2+ shots23.4%4.27
Shots/90 4.16SoT/90 0.76Goals/90 0.19
Arsen ZakharyanSociedad · in form
To score4.4%22.73
1+ on target20.3%4.93
2+ shots19.8%5.05
Shots/90 3.24SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.18

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Valencia win2.702.33
Draw3.403.59
Sociedad win2.603.43
Over 2.5 goals1.932.07
Under 2.5 goals1.931.94

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Valencia win2.34
Draw3.67
Sociedad win3.33
Both teams to score1.88

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.06
Over 3.5 goals3.75
Valencia most2.34
Sociedad most3.33

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.38
Over 8.5 corners1.65
Over 9.5 corners2.07
Over 10.5 corners2.73
Valencia most1.86
Sociedad most2.82

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.54
Over 4.5 cards2.16
Over 5.5 cards3.33
Valencia most2.87
Sociedad most2.16

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.10
Over 9.5 SoT2.81
Valencia most1.83
Sociedad most3.07

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.59
Over 24.5 shots1.99
Over 26.5 shots2.64
Over 28.5 shots3.71
Valencia most1.53
Sociedad most3.47

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.33
Over 22.5 fouls1.61
Over 24.5 fouls2.07
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 62.8% Over 24.5 50.2% Over 26.5 37.9% Over 28.5 26.9%
Most: Valencia 65.4% Most: Sociedad 28.8%
Valencia Over 13.2 50.9% Sociedad Over 13.2 25.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.0% Over 7.5 60.6% Over 8.5 47.7% Over 9.5 35.5%
Most: Valencia 54.8% Most: Sociedad 32.6%
Valencia Over 4.2 49.9% Sociedad Over 4.2 33.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.5% Over 3.5 64.8% Over 4.5 46.4%
Most: Valencia 34.9% Most: Sociedad 46.4%
Valencia Over 1.8 60.6% Sociedad Over 1.8 68.2%

Valencia: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld 2.13 0.9 0.14 42.8% 38.1% 8.3%
Umar Sadiq 2.42 0.88 0.44 34.7% 32.7% 19.2%
Harvey Elliott 4.16 0.76 0.19 15.4% 23.4% 4.1%
Raba 2.2 0.71 0.35 33.2% 35.5% 18.0%
Hugo Duro 1.68 0.63 0.43 33.2% 29.2% 24.0%

Sociedad: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Orri Óskarsson 2.43 1.28 0.6 46.2% 32.9% 25.2%
Mikel Oyarzabal 2.2 0.95 0.42 53.8% 53.4% 28.9%
Arsen Zakharyan 3.24 0.9 0.18 20.3% 19.8% 4.4%
Gonçalo Guedes 2.46 0.88 0.3 36.4% 36.0% 14.3%
Luka Sucic 2.06 0.64 0.17 33.5% 37.8% 10.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Valencia clean sheet 31.0%
Sociedad clean sheet 23.6%
Valencia win to nil 23.0%
Sociedad win to nil 15.6%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 42.7% draw 27.3% away 30.0%
double_chance
1X 70.0% 12 72.7% X2 57.3%
dnb
home 58.7% away 41.3%
btts
yes 53.2% no 46.8%
clean_sheet
home 31.1% away 23.7%
win_to_nil
home 23.1% away 15.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.8% home_by_2 12.9% home_by_3plus 8.0%
away_by_1 17.5% away_by_2 8.5% away_by_3plus 4.0%
correct_score
0-0 8.0% 0-1 8.0% 0-2 5.0%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.0% 1-1 13.0% 1-2 7.2%
1-3 2.8% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.6% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.7% 3-1 4.3% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.0% under_0.5 8.0% over_1.5 74.1%
under_1.5 25.9% over_2.5 48.4% under_2.5 51.6%
over_3.5 26.7% under_3.5 73.3% over_4.5 12.4%
under_4.5 87.6% over_5.5 5.0% under_5.5 95.0%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 76.4% under_0.5 23.7% over_1.5 42.3%
under_1.5 57.7% over_2.5 17.7% under_2.5 82.3%
team_away
over_0.5 68.9% under_0.5 31.1% over_1.5 32.6%
under_1.5 67.4% over_2.5 11.4% under_2.5 88.6%
most
home 42.7% draw 27.3% away 30.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.0% away_+2.5 92.0% home_-1.5 20.9%
away_+1.5 79.1% home_-0.5 42.7% away_+0.5 57.3%
home_+0.5 70.0% away_-0.5 30.0% home_+1.5 87.5%
away_-1.5 12.5% home_+2.5 96.0% away_-2.5 4.0%
total_exact
exact_0 8.0% exact_1 17.9% exact_2 25.7%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 14.2% exact_5 7.4%
exact_6 3.2% exact_7plus 1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.5% draw 47.5% away 26.9%
total
over_0.5 61.9% under_0.5 38.1% over_1.5 25.1%
under_1.5 74.9% over_2.5 7.4% under_2.5 92.6%
btts
yes 14.6% no 85.4%
total_exact
exact_0 38.1% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 17.7%
exact_3 5.7% exact_4plus 1.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.1% draw 33.1% away 24.8%
total
over_0.5 82.2% under_0.5 17.8% over_1.5 51.6%
under_1.5 48.4% over_2.5 25.0% under_2.5 75.0%
btts
yes 32.4% no 67.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 20.2% H/D 3.8% H/A 1.5%
D/H 20.0% D/D 15.7% D/A 11.8%
A/H 3.8% A/D 6.0% A/A 17.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.5% under_7.5 27.6% over_8.5 60.7%
under_8.5 39.3% over_9.5 48.4% under_9.5 51.6%
over_10.5 36.7% under_10.5 63.3% over_11.5 26.5%
under_11.5 73.6% over_12.5 18.2% under_12.5 81.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.9% under_3.5 27.1% over_4.5 57.3%
under_4.5 42.7% over_5.5 41.9% under_5.5 58.1%
team_away
over_3.5 60.7% under_3.5 39.4% over_4.5 43.3%
under_4.5 56.7% over_5.5 28.4% under_5.5 71.6%
most
home 53.8% draw 10.8% away 35.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.1% away_+3.5 76.9% home_-1.5 42.7%
away_+1.5 57.3% home_-0.5 53.8% away_+0.5 46.2%
home_+0.5 64.6% away_-0.5 35.4% home_+1.5 74.3%
away_-1.5 25.7% home_+3.5 88.6% away_-3.5 11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.8% under_22.5 37.2% over_24.5 50.2%
under_24.5 49.8% over_26.5 37.9% under_26.5 62.1%
over_28.5 26.9% under_28.5 73.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.2% under_10.5 24.8% over_12.5 59.3%
under_12.5 40.7% over_14.5 42.8% under_14.5 57.2%
team_away
over_10.5 50.7% under_10.5 49.3% over_12.5 32.6%
under_12.5 67.4% over_14.5 18.8% under_14.5 81.2%
most
home 65.4% draw 5.7% away 28.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.3% away_+4.5 59.7% home_-2.5 53.0%
away_+2.5 47.0% home_-0.5 65.4% away_+0.5 34.6%
home_+0.5 71.2% away_-0.5 28.8% home_+2.5 81.1%
away_-2.5 18.9% home_+4.5 88.5% away_-4.5 11.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.0% under_6.5 27.0% over_7.5 60.6%
under_7.5 39.4% over_8.5 47.7% under_8.5 52.3%
over_9.5 35.5% under_9.5 64.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.4% under_3.5 32.6% over_4.5 49.9%
under_4.5 50.1% over_5.5 33.7% under_5.5 66.3%
team_away
over_3.5 52.1% under_3.5 47.9% over_4.5 33.8%
under_4.5 66.2% over_5.5 19.7% under_5.5 80.3%
most
home 54.8% draw 12.7% away 32.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.5% away_+2.5 70.5% home_-0.5 54.8%
away_+0.5 45.2% home_+0.5 67.4% away_-0.5 32.6%
home_+2.5 86.7% away_-2.5 13.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.5% under_2.5 18.5% over_3.5 64.8%
under_3.5 35.2% over_4.5 46.4% under_4.5 53.6%
over_5.5 30.0% under_5.5 70.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 60.6% under_1.5 39.4% over_2.5 34.5%
under_2.5 65.5%
team_away
over_1.5 68.2% under_1.5 31.8% over_2.5 42.9%
under_2.5 57.1%
most
home 34.9% draw 18.8% away 46.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.4% away_+1.5 80.6% home_-0.5 34.9%
away_+0.5 65.1% home_+0.5 53.6% away_-0.5 46.4%
home_+1.5 71.3% away_-1.5 28.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 75.1% under_20.5 24.9% over_22.5 62.2%
under_22.5 37.8% over_24.5 48.3% under_24.5 51.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 69.1% under_9.5 31.0% over_11.5 48.9%
under_11.5 51.1% over_13.5 30.2% under_13.5 69.8%
team_away
over_9.5 78.3% under_9.5 21.7% over_11.5 60.5%
under_11.5 39.5% over_13.5 41.5% under_13.5 58.5%
most
home 38.3% draw 6.9% away 54.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.4% away_+3.5 79.6% home_-0.5 38.3%
away_+0.5 61.7% home_+2.5 59.1% away_-2.5 40.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.1% no 82.9%
home
yes 6.3% no 93.7%
away
yes 11.5% no 88.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Valencia predictions · Sociedad predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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