La Coruna vs Betis prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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La Coruna vs Betis: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 20 Sep 2026

La Liga
La Coruna

DWWDL

Sun, 20 Sep 202620/917:30UK27°C · Clear
Betis

WLWWW

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Draw or Betis

60%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.009 <= 0.03.

Model pick

Betis45.7%

Win probability · fair 2.19

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely76.8%Fair 1.30
Draw or BetisLikely71.7%Fair 1.39
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.0%Fair 1.67

Model read

La Coruna versus Betis on 20 September 2026 tilts towards Betis in our numbers (46%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 47%. 2) No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Form guide over the last six: La Coruna W2 D3 L1, Betis W5 D0 L1. For shots markets, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the obvious watch at 1.5 on target per 90 in recent data. As a promoted side, La Coruna carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The recent series reads 0 wins for La Coruna, 3 draws and 2 for Betis over 5 games, 2.0 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Betis win45.7%@ 2.19
Over 10.5 corners38.8%@ 2.58
Medium risk

Both teams to score55.9%@ 1.79
La Coruna or draw54.3%@ 1.84
Over 2.5 goals52.2%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 8.03
0-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.88
1-2 correct score9.2%@ 10.89

Model vs market

La Coruna

28.3%+0.4%

Draw

26.0%+0.9%

Betis

45.7%-1.3%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely76.8%Fair 1.30
Over 2.5Close call52.2%Fair 1.92
BTTS · YesClose call55.9%Fair 1.79

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.0%Fair 1.67
Over 9.5 cornersClose call49.1%Fair 2.04
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely38.8%Fair 2.58
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot29.6%Fair 3.38
Most cornersLa Coruna55.5%Betis33.7%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.3%Fair 1.58
Over 24.5 shotsClose call50.7%Fair 1.97
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely38.4%Fair 2.60
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot27.5%Fair 3.64

Recent shot volume

La Coruna7.8 taken13.2 faced
Betis18.5 taken14.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

La Coruna (5 games)

3.2 / 4.6

Betis (6 games)

9.3 / 9.2

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.8%2.552.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

La CorunaDWWDL
BetisWLWWW

Last 5 meetings: La Coruna 0 · 3 draws · Betis 2 · 2.0 goals/game.

2018-02-12La Coruna 0-1 Betis
2017-09-16Betis 2-1 La Coruna
2017-03-08La Coruna 1-1 Betis
2016-08-26Betis 0-0 La Coruna
2016-02-13La Coruna 2-2 Betis

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

La CorunaBetis
League position#7 of 20#3 of 20
Record W-D-L2-3-15-0-1
Current streakL1W3
Points per game1.502.50
Record, home vs away1-1-12-0-1
PPG, home vs away1.332.00
Goals scored per game1.501.33
Goals conceded per game1.171.00
Scored, home vs away1.331.67
Conceded, home vs away1.002.00
1st half goals per game0.830.83
2nd half goals per game0.670.50
Corners won per game3.84.7
Cards per game2.31.3
Fouls per game13.59.8
Red cards this season20
Shots per game7.818.5
Shots faced per game13.214.3
Shots on target per game3.36.8
1st half shots per game3.29.3
2nd half shots per game4.69.2
xG for per game1.082.03
xG against per game1.581.81
Over 2.5 rate

33.3%33.3%

BTTS rate

83.3%33.3%

Clean sheets

0.0%66.7%

Rates this season:La CorunaBetis

League averages this season: 3.08 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Pierre-Emerick AubameyangLa Coruna · key player
To score34.9%2.87
1+ on target69.6%1.44
2+ shots61.6%1.62
Shots/90 2.57SoT/90 1.47Goals/90 0.53
AntonyBetis · key player
To score18.7%5.35
1+ on target65.6%1.52
2+ shots76.2%1.31
Shots/90 3.46SoT/90 1.34Goals/90 0.26
Luismi CruzLa Coruna · in form
To score24.8%4.03
1+ on target51.2%1.95
2+ shots16.2%6.17
Shots/90 0.98SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.39
Pablo GarcíaBetis · in form
To score7.9%12.66
1+ on target31.2%3.21
2+ shots24.9%4.02
Shots/90 3.25SoT/90 1.27Goals/90 0.28
Adama TraoréLa Coruna · in form
To score1.7%58.82
1+ on target15.3%6.54
2+ shots11.7%8.55
Shots/90 1.69SoT/90 0.48Goals/90 0.05
Abdessamad EzzalzouliBetis · in form
To score18.4%5.43
1+ on target54.9%1.82
2+ shots62.5%1.60
Shots/90 2.71SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.26

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
La Coruna win3.403.54
Draw3.753.84
Betis win2.052.19
Over 2.5 goals1.801.92
Under 2.5 goals2.002.09

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

La Coruna win3.41
Draw3.81
Betis win2.25
Both teams to score1.79

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.92
Over 3.5 goals3.33
La Coruna most3.41
Betis most2.25

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.99
Over 10.5 corners2.60
La Coruna most1.80
Betis most2.96

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29
Over 3.5 cards1.68
Over 4.5 cards2.46
Over 5.5 cards4.02
La Coruna most2.52
Betis most2.46

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.25
Over 7.5 SoT1.44
Over 8.5 SoT1.73
Over 9.5 SoT2.20
La Coruna most1.95
Betis most2.74

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.97
Over 26.5 shots2.60
Over 28.5 shots3.64
La Coruna most1.72
Betis most2.81

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.35
Over 22.5 fouls1.64
Over 24.5 fouls2.13
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 63.3% Over 24.5 50.7% Over 26.5 38.4% Over 28.5 27.5%
Most: La Coruna 58.2% Most: Betis 35.7%
La Coruna Over 13.2 46.2% Betis Over 13.2 30.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 80.3% Over 7.5 69.7% Over 8.5 57.7% Over 9.5 45.4%
Most: La Coruna 51.3% Most: Betis 36.5%
La Coruna Over 4.2 54.3% Betis Over 4.2 43.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.7% Over 3.5 59.4% Over 4.5 40.6%
Most: La Coruna 39.6% Most: Betis 40.6%
La Coruna Over 1.8 60.5% Betis Over 1.8 61.1%

La Coruna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 2.57 1.47 0.53 69.6% 61.6% 34.9%
Luismi Cruz 0.98 0.98 0.39 51.2% 16.2% 24.8%
Adama Traoré 1.69 0.48 0.05 15.3% 11.7% 1.7%
Angelino 0.73 0.22 0.05 17.5% 13.5% 4.3%
Mario Soriano 0.91 0.18 0 13.1% 16.0% 0.0%

Betis: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Antony 3.46 1.34 0.26 65.6% 76.2% 18.7%
Pablo García 3.25 1.27 0.28 31.2% 24.9% 7.9%
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli 2.71 1.02 0.26 54.9% 62.5% 18.4%
Giovani Lo Celso 1.98 0.92 0.26 44.1% 35.5% 15.1%
Juan Camilo Hernández 3.01 0.89 0.37 53.9% 73.7% 27.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

La Coruna clean sheet 21.2%
Betis clean sheet 29.5%
La Coruna win to nil 14.3%
Betis win to nil 22.6%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 29.3% draw 26.3% away 44.4%
double_chance
1X 55.6% 12 73.7% X2 70.7%
dnb
home 39.8% away 60.3%
btts
yes 55.9% no 44.1%
clean_sheet
home 21.3% away 29.7%
win_to_nil
home 14.4% away 22.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.9% home_by_2 8.4% home_by_3plus 4.0%
away_by_1 21.7% away_by_2 13.6% away_by_3plus 9.1%
correct_score
0-0 6.9% 0-1 9.2% 0-2 7.6%
0-3 3.9% 0-4 1.5% 0-5 0.5%
1-0 7.1% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 9.2%
1-3 4.7% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 4.7% 2-1 7.2% 2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 1.9% 3-1 2.9% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 0.9% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.1% under_0.5 6.9% over_1.5 76.8%
under_1.5 23.2% over_2.5 52.2% under_2.5 47.9%
over_3.5 30.0% under_3.5 70.0% over_4.5 14.7%
under_4.5 85.3% over_5.5 6.2% under_5.5 93.8%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 70.3% under_0.5 29.7% over_1.5 34.3%
under_1.5 65.7% over_2.5 12.4% under_2.5 87.6%
team_away
over_0.5 78.7% under_0.5 21.3% over_1.5 45.8%
under_1.5 54.2% over_2.5 20.3% under_2.5 79.7%
most
home 29.3% draw 26.3% away 44.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.0% away_+2.5 96.0% home_-1.5 12.4%
away_+1.5 87.6% home_-0.5 29.3% away_+0.5 70.7%
home_+0.5 55.6% away_-0.5 44.4% home_+1.5 77.3%
away_-1.5 22.7% home_+2.5 90.9% away_-2.5 9.1%
total_exact
exact_0 6.9% exact_1 16.3% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.3% exact_5 8.5%
exact_6 3.9% exact_7plus 2.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.7% draw 37.2% away 21.1%
total
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.2%
under_1.5 58.8% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.1%
btts
yes 24.2% no 75.8%
total_exact
exact_0 24.4% exact_1 34.4% exact_2 24.3%
exact_3 11.4% exact_4plus 5.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.5% draw 40.5% away 29.0%
total
over_0.5 72.1% under_0.5 27.9% over_1.5 36.5%
under_1.5 63.5% over_2.5 13.8% under_2.5 86.2%
btts
yes 22.3% no 77.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 33.0% H/D 6.4% H/A 2.3%
D/H 11.4% D/D 15.0% D/A 10.8%
A/H 1.4% A/D 3.9% A/A 15.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.0% under_7.5 26.0% over_8.5 62.5%
under_8.5 37.5% over_9.5 50.3% under_9.5 49.7%
over_10.5 38.5% under_10.5 61.5% over_11.5 28.1%
under_11.5 71.9% over_12.5 19.5% under_12.5 80.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.8% under_3.5 25.2% over_4.5 59.7%
under_4.5 40.3% over_5.5 44.4% under_5.5 55.6%
team_away
over_3.5 60.5% under_3.5 39.5% over_4.5 43.2%
under_4.5 56.8% over_5.5 28.3% under_5.5 71.7%
most
home 55.6% draw 10.6% away 33.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.8% away_+3.5 75.2% home_-1.5 44.6%
away_+1.5 55.4% home_-0.5 55.6% away_+0.5 44.4%
home_+0.5 66.2% away_-0.5 33.8% home_+1.5 75.6%
away_-1.5 24.4% home_+3.5 89.3% away_-3.5 10.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.3% under_22.5 36.7% over_24.5 50.7%
under_24.5 49.3% over_26.5 38.4% under_26.5 61.6%
over_28.5 27.5% under_28.5 72.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.4% under_10.5 28.6% over_12.5 54.7%
under_12.5 45.3% over_14.5 38.2% under_14.5 61.9%
team_away
over_10.5 56.7% under_10.5 43.3% over_12.5 38.4%
under_12.5 61.6% over_14.5 23.4% under_14.5 76.6%
most
home 58.2% draw 6.1% away 35.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.2% away_+4.5 66.8% home_-2.5 45.5%
away_+2.5 54.5% home_-0.5 58.2% away_+0.5 41.8%
home_+0.5 64.4% away_-0.5 35.7% home_+2.5 75.4%
away_-2.5 24.6% home_+4.5 84.3% away_-4.5 15.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 80.3% under_6.5 19.7% over_7.5 69.7%
under_7.5 30.3% over_8.5 57.7% under_8.5 42.4%
over_9.5 45.4% under_9.5 54.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.1% under_3.5 28.9% over_4.5 54.3%
under_4.5 45.7% over_5.5 38.1% under_5.5 61.9%
team_away
over_3.5 61.8% under_3.5 38.2% over_4.5 43.6%
under_4.5 56.4% over_5.5 28.0% under_5.5 72.0%
most
home 51.3% draw 12.3% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.7% away_+2.5 72.3% home_-0.5 51.3%
away_+0.5 48.7% home_+0.5 63.5% away_-0.5 36.5%
home_+2.5 83.5% away_-2.5 16.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.7% under_2.5 22.3% over_3.5 59.4%
under_3.5 40.6% over_4.5 40.6% under_4.5 59.4%
over_5.5 24.9% under_5.5 75.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 60.5% under_1.5 39.5% over_2.5 34.4%
under_2.5 65.6%
team_away
over_1.5 61.1% under_1.5 38.9% over_2.5 35.1%
under_2.5 64.9%
most
home 39.7% draw 19.7% away 40.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.6% away_+1.5 77.5% home_-0.5 39.7%
away_+0.5 60.4% home_+0.5 59.4% away_-0.5 40.6%
home_+1.5 76.7% away_-1.5 23.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 73.9% under_20.5 26.1% over_22.5 60.8%
under_22.5 39.2% over_24.5 46.9% under_24.5 53.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 77.0% under_9.5 23.0% over_11.5 58.8%
under_11.5 41.2% over_13.5 39.8% under_13.5 60.2%
team_away
over_9.5 68.9% under_9.5 31.1% over_11.5 48.6%
under_11.5 51.4% over_13.5 30.0% under_13.5 70.0%
most
home 53.7% draw 7.0% away 39.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 33.1% away_+3.5 66.9% home_-0.5 53.7%
away_+0.5 46.3% home_+2.5 73.4% away_-2.5 26.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.9% no 81.1%
home
yes 16.2% no 83.8%
away
yes 3.2% no 96.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: La Coruna predictions · Betis predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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