Espanol vs Elche prediction & probabilities (2026-09-18)

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Espanol vs Elche: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Sep 2026

La Liga
Espanol

WLLDW

Fri, 18 Sep 202620:00UK
Elche

DLLLD

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

76%

Espanol or draw

56%

Both teams to score

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Espanol51.7%

Win probability · fair 1.94

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely77.7%Fair 1.29
Espanol or drawVery likely75.8%Fair 1.32
Both teams to scoreClose call55.8%Fair 1.79

Model read

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Espanol at 52% against Elche, La Liga, 18 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 53% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Espanol, 2 draws and 1 for Elche at 2.6 goals per match. • Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Espanol against W0 D3 L3 for Elche. For shots markets, Pere Milla is the obvious watch at 1.0 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners44.8%@ 2.23
Over 10.5 corners34.6%@ 2.89
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners55.8%@ 1.79
Over 2.5 goals53.4%@ 1.87
Draw or Elche48.3%@ 2.07
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.34
2-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.44
1-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.56

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Espanol

51.7%

Draw

24.2%

Elche

24.2%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely77.7%Fair 1.29
Over 2.5Close call53.4%Fair 1.87
BTTS · YesClose call55.8%Fair 1.79

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call55.8%Fair 1.79
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely44.8%Fair 2.23
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.6%Fair 2.89
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot25.7%Fair 3.89
Most cornersEspanol53.3%Elche35.5%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call58.9%Fair 1.70
Over 24.5 shotsClose call46.1%Fair 2.17
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely34.0%Fair 2.94
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot23.6%Fair 4.23

Recent shot volume

Espanol11.7 taken11.3 faced
Elche10.3 taken12.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Espanol (5 games)

5.2 / 5.4

Elche (5 games)

2.8 / 9.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.7%2.553.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.577.7%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

EspanolWLLDW
ElcheDLLLD

Last 5 meetings: Espanol 2 · 2 draws · Elche 1 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-03-01Elche 2-2 Espanol
2025-10-25Espanol 1-0 Elche
2023-02-19Elche 0-1 Espanol
2022-10-23Espanol 2-2 Elche
2022-01-10Espanol 1-2 Elche

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

EspanolElche
League position#8 of 20#20 of 20
Record W-D-L2-1-30-2-4
Current streakL1L1
Points per game1.170.33
Record, home vs away1-1-10-2-1
PPG, home vs away1.330.67
Goals scored per game1.501.33
Goals conceded per game1.172.67
Scored, home vs away1.671.33
Conceded, home vs away1.001.67
1st half goals per game1.200.00
2nd half goals per game0.401.20
Corners won per game1.45.2
Cards per game3.42.2
Fouls per game18.213.0
Red cards this season00
Shots per game10.611.8
Shots faced per game11.812.8
Shots on target per game3.65.2
1st half shots per game5.22.8
2nd half shots per game5.49.0
xG for per game1.391.43
xG against per game1.502.44
Over 2.5 rate

66.7%66.7%

BTTS rate

66.7%83.3%

Clean sheets

33.3%0.0%

Rates this season:EspanolElche

League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Pere MillaEspanol · key player
To score16.7%5.99
1+ on target37.8%2.65
2+ shots36.9%2.71
Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.38
Lucas CepedaElche · key player
To score6.2%16.13
1+ on target43.0%2.33
2+ shots35.6%2.81
Shots/90 3.51SoT/90 1.58Goals/90 0.18
Roberto FernándezEspanol · in form
To score25.8%3.88
1+ on target44.5%2.25
2+ shots43.4%2.30
Shots/90 1.88SoT/90 0.75Goals/90 0.38
Facundo BuonanotteElche · in form
To score13.1%7.63
1+ on target34.0%2.94
2+ shots34.5%2.90
Shots/90 2.44SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.28
Bryan ZaragozaEspanol · in form
To score3.9%25.64
1+ on target39.4%2.54
2+ shots39.1%2.56
Shots/90 2.02SoT/90 0.75Goals/90 0.06
Thomas LemarElche · in form
To score10.9%9.17
1+ on target24.8%4.03
2+ shots13.1%7.63
Shots/90 1.41SoT/90 0.64Goals/90 0.26

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Espanol win2.02
Draw3.95
Elche win3.95
Both teams to score1.79

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.87
Over 3.5 goals3.21
Espanol most2.02
Elche most3.95

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.73
Over 9.5 corners2.21
Over 10.5 corners2.96
Espanol most1.87
Elche most2.81

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.21
Over 3.5 cards1.52
Over 4.5 cards2.10
Over 5.5 cards3.22
Espanol most2.58
Elche most2.35

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.06
Over 9.5 SoT2.75
Espanol most1.78
Elche most3.20

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.70
Over 24.5 shots2.17
Over 26.5 shots2.94
Over 28.5 shots4.23
Espanol most1.54
Elche most3.43

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.29
Over 24.5 fouls1.52
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 58.9% Over 24.5 46.1% Over 26.5 34.0% Over 28.5 23.6%
Most: Espanol 65.0% Most: Elche 29.1%
Espanol Over 13.2 47.8% Elche Over 13.2 23.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.7% Over 7.5 61.5% Over 8.5 48.6% Over 9.5 36.4%
Most: Espanol 56.3% Most: Elche 31.2%
Espanol Over 4.2 51.5% Elche Over 4.2 33.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 82.4% Over 3.5 65.9% Over 4.5 47.6%
Most: Espanol 38.7% Most: Elche 42.5%
Espanol Over 1.8 64.2% Elche Over 1.8 66.7%

Espanol: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Pere Milla 2.69 0.99 0.38 37.8% 36.9% 16.7%
Roberto Fernández 1.88 0.75 0.38 44.5% 43.4% 25.8%
Bryan Zaragoza 2.02 0.75 0.06 39.4% 39.1% 3.9%
Javi Hernández 1.48 0.56 0 39.6% 38.4% 0.0%
Jofre Carreras 1.95 0.53 0.13 24.2% 27.1% 6.6%

Elche: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Lucas Cepeda 3.51 1.58 0.18 43.0% 35.6% 6.2%
Facundo Buonanotte 2.44 0.83 0.28 34.0% 34.5% 13.1%
Thomas Lemar 1.41 0.64 0.26 24.8% 13.1% 10.9%
Tete Morente 1.47 0.38 0.09 24.1% 28.9% 6.3%
Gonzalo Villar 0.58 0.29 0.07 19.9% 7.4% 5.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Espanol clean sheet 31.8%
Elche clean sheet 18.7%
Espanol win to nil 25.3%
Elche win to nil 12.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 49.4% draw 25.3% away 25.3%
double_chance
1X 74.7% 12 74.7% X2 50.6%
dnb
home 66.1% away 33.9%
btts
yes 55.8% no 44.2%
clean_sheet
home 32.1% away 18.7%
win_to_nil
home 25.5% away 12.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.6% home_by_2 15.2% home_by_3plus 11.6%
away_by_1 15.2% away_by_2 7.0% away_by_3plus 3.1%
correct_score
0-0 6.6% 0-1 6.2% 0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.5% 1-1 12.0% 1-2 6.5%
1-3 2.5% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.4% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.1% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.7% 3-1 5.4% 3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.0% 4-1 2.3% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.5% under_0.5 6.6% over_1.5 77.7%
under_1.5 22.3% over_2.5 53.4% under_2.5 46.6%
over_3.5 31.2% under_3.5 68.8% over_4.5 15.5%
under_4.5 84.5% over_5.5 6.7% under_5.5 93.3%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 81.3% under_0.5 18.7% over_1.5 50.0%
under_1.5 50.0% over_2.5 23.7% under_2.5 76.3%
team_away
over_0.5 67.9% under_0.5 32.1% over_1.5 31.5%
under_1.5 68.5% over_2.5 10.8% under_2.5 89.3%
most
home 49.4% draw 25.3% away 25.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.6% away_+2.5 88.4% home_-1.5 26.8%
away_+1.5 73.2% home_-0.5 49.4% away_+0.5 50.6%
home_+0.5 74.7% away_-0.5 25.3% home_+1.5 89.9%
away_-1.5 10.1% home_+2.5 96.9% away_-2.5 3.1%
total_exact
exact_0 6.6% exact_1 15.7% exact_2 24.3%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.7% exact_5 8.8%
exact_6 4.2% exact_7plus 2.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.7% draw 40.8% away 15.6%
total
over_0.5 69.0% under_0.5 31.0% over_1.5 32.7%
under_1.5 67.3% over_2.5 11.5% under_2.5 88.6%
btts
yes 16.9% no 83.1%
total_exact
exact_0 31.0% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.3%
exact_3 8.3% exact_4plus 3.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.6% draw 34.5% away 27.9%
total
over_0.5 80.8% under_0.5 19.2% over_1.5 49.2%
under_1.5 50.8% over_2.5 23.0% under_2.5 77.0%
btts
yes 31.3% no 68.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 34.6% H/D 6.4% H/A 2.6%
D/H 15.3% D/D 14.1% D/A 11.4%
A/H 1.8% A/D 3.4% A/A 10.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.0% under_7.5 30.0% over_8.5 57.8%
under_8.5 42.2% over_9.5 45.4% under_9.5 54.7%
over_10.5 33.8% under_10.5 66.2% over_11.5 23.9%
under_11.5 76.1% over_12.5 16.1% under_12.5 83.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.1% under_3.5 28.9% over_4.5 55.2%
under_4.5 44.8% over_5.5 39.7% under_5.5 60.3%
team_away
over_3.5 59.0% under_3.5 41.0% over_4.5 41.5%
under_4.5 58.5% over_5.5 26.8% under_5.5 73.2%
most
home 53.4% draw 11.0% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.5% away_+3.5 77.6% home_-1.5 42.2%
away_+1.5 57.8% home_-0.5 53.4% away_+0.5 46.6%
home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5% home_+1.5 74.4%
away_-1.5 25.6% home_+3.5 88.8% away_-3.5 11.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.9% under_22.5 41.1% over_24.5 46.1%
under_24.5 53.9% over_26.5 34.0% under_26.5 66.0%
over_28.5 23.6% under_28.5 76.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.7% under_10.5 27.3% over_12.5 56.2%
under_12.5 43.8% over_14.5 39.7% under_14.5 60.3%
team_away
over_10.5 48.1% under_10.5 51.9% over_12.5 30.2%
under_12.5 69.8% over_14.5 17.0% under_14.5 83.0%
most
home 65.0% draw 5.9% away 29.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.5% away_+4.5 60.5% home_-2.5 52.3%
away_+2.5 47.7% home_-0.5 65.0% away_+0.5 35.0%
home_+0.5 70.9% away_-0.5 29.1% home_+2.5 81.0%
away_-2.5 19.0% home_+4.5 88.6% away_-4.5 11.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.7% under_6.5 26.3% over_7.5 61.5%
under_7.5 38.5% over_8.5 48.6% under_8.5 51.4%
over_9.5 36.4% under_9.5 63.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.8% under_3.5 31.2% over_4.5 51.5%
under_4.5 48.5% over_5.5 35.3% under_5.5 64.7%
team_away
over_3.5 51.6% under_3.5 48.4% over_4.5 33.3%
under_4.5 66.7% over_5.5 19.4% under_5.5 80.6%
most
home 56.3% draw 12.5% away 31.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.0% away_+2.5 69.0% home_-0.5 56.3%
away_+0.5 43.7% home_+0.5 68.8% away_-0.5 31.2%
home_+2.5 87.4% away_-2.5 12.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 82.4% under_2.5 17.6% over_3.5 66.0%
under_3.5 34.1% over_4.5 47.6% under_4.5 52.4%
over_5.5 31.1% under_5.5 68.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 64.2% under_1.5 35.8% over_2.5 38.3%
under_2.5 61.8%
team_away
over_1.5 66.7% under_1.5 33.3% over_2.5 41.1%
under_2.5 59.0%
most
home 38.7% draw 18.8% away 42.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.4% away_+1.5 77.6% home_-0.5 38.7%
away_+0.5 61.3% home_+0.5 57.5% away_-0.5 42.5%
home_+1.5 74.5% away_-1.5 25.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 86.7% under_20.5 13.3% over_22.5 77.4%
under_22.5 22.6% over_24.5 65.9% under_24.5 34.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 85.7% under_9.5 14.3% over_11.5 71.3%
under_11.5 28.7% over_13.5 53.7% under_13.5 46.3%
team_away
over_9.5 79.4% under_9.5 20.6% over_11.5 62.1%
under_11.5 37.9% over_13.5 43.3% under_13.5 56.8%
most
home 54.1% draw 6.5% away 39.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 34.6% away_+3.5 65.4% home_-0.5 54.1%
away_+0.5 46.0% home_+2.5 72.5% away_-2.5 27.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 16.8% no 83.3%
home
yes 10.3% no 89.7%
away
yes 7.2% no 92.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Espanol predictions · Elche predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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