Queens Park Rangers vs Preston North End: model prediction

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 18 Sep 2026

Championship

Queens Park Rangers

Full time2-2Sat, 19 Sep 202619/915:00UK

Preston North End

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Queens Park Rangers or draw

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time2 of 4 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Queens Park Rangers 2-2 Preston North End

ResultOver 2.5 goalsOver 1.5 goalsOver 3.5 goalsBoth teams to score

2 of 5 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Queens Park Rangers at 42.2%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 53.4% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 72.7% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 74.9% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 51.8% and it landed.

Model pick

Queens Park Rangers42.2%

Win probability · fair 2.37

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsLikely72.7%Fair 1.38

Queens Park Rangers or drawLikely70.0%Fair 1.43

Over 8.5 cornersLikely67.1%Fair 1.49

Model read

Our engine prices Queens Park Rangers at 42% for 19 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Queens Park Rangers are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 2.5 goals46.6%@ 2.15

Over 10.5 corners46.2%@ 2.16

Over 11.5 corners36.4%@ 2.75

Medium risk

Draw or Preston North End57.8%@ 1.73

Over 9.5 corners56.6%@ 1.77

Under 2.5 goals53.4%@ 1.87

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.56

1-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.60

2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.35

Model vs market

Rangers

42.2%

Draw

27.8%

Preston

30.0%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely72.7%Fair 1.38

Over 2.5Close call46.6%Fair 2.15

BTTS · YesClose call51.8%Fair 1.93

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely67.1%Fair 1.49

Over 9.5 cornersClose call56.6%Fair 1.77

Over 10.5 cornersClose call46.2%Fair 2.16

Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely36.4%Fair 2.75

Most cornersQueens Park Rangers56.8%Preston North End32.9%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely64.0%Fair 1.56

Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.5%Fair 1.94

Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely39.3%Fair 2.55

Over 28.5 shotsLong shot28.2%Fair 3.54

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.7%2.546.6%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.572.7%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Queens Park RangersPreston North End

League position#25 of 27#27 of 27

Record W-D-L0-2-00-0-1

Current streakD2L1

League averages this season: 2.76 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 60% · BTTS in 64%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Queens Park Rangers win2.37

Draw3.60

Preston North End win3.33

Both teams to score1.93

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09

Over 1.5 goals1.38

Over 2.5 goals2.15

Over 3.5 goals3.99

Queens Park Rangers most2.37

Preston North End most3.33

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25

Over 8.5 corners1.43

Over 9.5 corners1.71

Over 10.5 corners2.13

Queens Park Rangers most1.76

Preston North End most3.03

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.40

Over 3.5 cards1.97

Over 4.5 cards3.18

Over 5.5 cards5.85

Queens Park Rangers most3.14

Preston North End most2.13

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.46

Over 7.5 SoT1.79

Over 8.5 SoT2.32

Over 9.5 SoT3.17

Queens Park Rangers most1.88

Preston North End most2.95

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.56

Over 24.5 shots1.94

Over 26.5 shots2.55

Over 28.5 shots3.54

Queens Park Rangers most1.61

Preston North End most3.12

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.69

Over 22.5 fouls2.30

Over 24.5 fouls3.44

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	64.0%	Over 24.5	51.5%	Over 26.5	39.3%	Over 28.5	28.2%
Most: Queens Park Rangers	62.0%	Most: Preston North End	32.1%
Queens Park Rangers Over 13.2	49.5%	Preston North End Over 13.2	28.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	68.6%	Over 7.5	55.9%	Over 8.5	43.1%	Over 9.5	31.6%
Most: Queens Park Rangers	53.3%	Most: Preston North End	34.0%
Queens Park Rangers Over 4.2	45.6%	Preston North End Over 4.2	31.8%

Cards

Over 2.5	71.6%	Over 3.5	50.7%	Over 4.5	31.4%
Most: Queens Park Rangers	31.8%	Most: Preston North End	47.0%
Queens Park Rangers Over 1.8	49.5%	Preston North End Over 1.8	60.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Queens Park Rangers clean sheet	31.9%
Preston North End clean sheet	24.7%
Queens Park Rangers win to nil	23.4%
Preston North End win to nil	16.1%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	42.3%	draw	27.8%	away	30.0%

double_chance

1X	70.0%	12	72.3%	X2	57.8%

dnb

home	58.5%	away	41.5%

btts

yes	51.8%	no	48.2%

clean_sheet

home	32.0%	away	24.7%

win_to_nil

home	23.5%	away	16.2%

winning_margin

home_by_1	21.9%	home_by_2	12.8%	home_by_3plus	7.6%
away_by_1	17.7%	away_by_2	8.5%	away_by_3plus	3.8%

correct_score

0-0	8.5%	0-1	8.4%	0-2	5.1%
0-3	2.0%	0-4	0.5%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	10.4%	1-1	13.2%	1-2	7.2%
1-3	2.7%	1-4	0.8%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	7.7%	2-1	8.8%	2-2	5.0%
2-3	1.9%	2-4	0.5%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	3.6%	3-1	4.1%	3-2	2.3%
3-3	0.9%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.3%	4-1	1.4%	4-2	0.8%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.4%	5-1	0.4%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.4%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.2%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.5%	under_0.5	8.5%	over_1.5	72.7%
under_1.5	27.3%	over_2.5	46.6%	under_2.5	53.4%
over_3.5	25.1%	under_3.5	74.9%	over_4.5	11.4%
under_4.5	88.6%	over_5.5	4.5%	under_5.5	95.5%

odd_even

odd	48.4%	even	51.6%

team_home

over_0.5	75.3%	under_0.5	24.7%	over_1.5	40.8%
under_1.5	59.2%	over_2.5	16.6%	under_2.5	83.4%

team_away

over_0.5	68.0%	under_0.5	32.0%	over_1.5	31.5%
under_1.5	68.5%	over_2.5	10.8%	under_2.5	89.2%

most

home	42.3%	draw	27.8%	away	30.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	7.6%	away_+2.5	92.4%	home_-1.5	20.3%
away_+1.5	79.7%	home_-0.5	42.3%	away_+0.5	57.8%
home_+0.5	70.0%	away_-0.5	30.0%	home_+1.5	87.7%
away_-1.5	12.3%	home_+2.5	96.2%	away_-2.5	3.8%

total_exact

exact_0	8.5%	exact_1	18.8%	exact_2	26.1%
exact_3	21.5%	exact_4	13.7%	exact_5	6.9%
exact_6	2.9%	exact_7plus	1.5%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	34.0%	draw	40.9%	away	25.1%

total

over_0.5	71.2%	under_0.5	28.8%	over_1.5	35.4%
under_1.5	64.6%	over_2.5	13.1%	under_2.5	87.0%

btts

yes	21.2%	no	78.8%

total_exact

exact_0	28.8%	exact_1	35.9%	exact_2	22.3%
exact_3	9.3%	exact_4plus	3.8%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	35.0%	draw	38.2%	away	26.9%

total

over_0.5	75.3%	under_0.5	24.7%	over_1.5	40.8%
under_1.5	59.2%	over_2.5	16.6%	under_2.5	83.4%

btts

yes	25.1%	no	74.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	26.9%	H/D	5.2%	H/A	1.8%
D/H	14.3%	D/D	15.6%	D/A	11.0%
A/H	2.3%	A/D	5.0%	A/A	17.9%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	80.1%	under_7.5	20.0%	over_8.5	70.0%
under_8.5	30.0%	over_9.5	58.6%	under_9.5	41.4%
over_10.5	46.9%	under_10.5	53.1%	over_11.5	35.8%
under_11.5	64.2%	over_12.5	26.2%	under_12.5	73.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	79.4%	under_3.5	20.6%	over_4.5	65.7%
under_4.5	34.3%	over_5.5	50.8%	under_5.5	49.2%

team_away

over_3.5	65.1%	under_3.5	34.9%	over_4.5	48.0%
under_4.5	52.0%	over_5.5	32.7%	under_5.5	67.3%

most

home	56.9%	draw	10.2%	away	33.0%

handicap

home_-3.5	26.7%	away_+3.5	73.3%	home_-1.5	46.2%
away_+1.5	53.8%	home_-0.5	56.9%	away_+0.5	43.1%
home_+0.5	67.0%	away_-0.5	33.0%	home_+1.5	76.1%
away_-1.5	23.9%	home_+3.5	89.3%	away_-3.5	10.8%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	64.0%	under_22.5	36.0%	over_24.5	51.5%
under_24.5	48.5%	over_26.5	39.3%	under_26.5	60.8%
over_28.5	28.2%	under_28.5	71.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	74.0%	under_10.5	26.0%	over_12.5	57.8%
under_12.5	42.2%	over_14.5	41.4%	under_14.5	58.6%

team_away

over_10.5	54.4%	under_10.5	45.7%	over_12.5	36.2%
under_12.5	63.8%	over_14.5	21.6%	under_14.5	78.4%

most

home	62.0%	draw	5.9%	away	32.1%

handicap

home_-4.5	37.0%	away_+4.5	63.0%	home_-2.5	49.5%
away_+2.5	50.6%	home_-0.5	62.0%	away_+0.5	38.0%
home_+0.5	67.9%	away_-0.5	32.1%	home_+2.5	78.4%
away_-2.5	21.6%	home_+4.5	86.5%	away_-4.5	13.5%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	68.6%	under_6.5	31.4%	over_7.5	55.9%
under_7.5	44.1%	over_8.5	43.1%	under_8.5	56.9%
over_9.5	31.6%	under_9.5	68.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	63.0%	under_3.5	37.0%	over_4.5	45.6%
under_4.5	54.4%	over_5.5	30.2%	under_5.5	69.8%

team_away

over_3.5	49.5%	under_3.5	50.5%	over_4.5	31.8%
under_4.5	68.2%	over_5.5	18.5%	under_5.5	81.5%

most

home	53.3%	draw	12.8%	away	34.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	28.3%	away_+2.5	71.7%	home_-0.5	53.3%
away_+0.5	46.8%	home_+0.5	66.1%	away_-0.5	34.0%
home_+2.5	85.8%	away_-2.5	14.2%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	71.6%	under_2.5	28.4%	over_3.5	50.7%
under_3.5	49.3%	over_4.5	31.4%	under_4.5	68.6%
over_5.5	17.1%	under_5.5	82.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	49.5%	under_1.5	50.5%	over_2.5	23.3%
under_2.5	76.7%

team_away

over_1.5	60.6%	under_1.5	39.4%	over_2.5	33.5%
under_2.5	66.5%

most

home	31.8%	draw	21.2%	away	47.0%

handicap

home_-1.5	15.5%	away_+1.5	84.5%	home_-0.5	31.8%
away_+0.5	68.2%	home_+0.5	53.0%	away_-0.5	47.0%
home_+1.5	73.1%	away_-1.5	27.0%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	59.2%	under_20.5	40.8%	over_22.5	43.4%
under_22.5	56.6%	over_24.5	29.1%	under_24.5	70.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	59.3%	under_9.5	40.7%	over_11.5	36.8%
under_11.5	63.2%	over_13.5	19.2%	under_13.5	80.8%

team_away

over_9.5	67.8%	under_9.5	32.2%	over_11.5	46.0%
under_11.5	54.0%	over_13.5	26.5%	under_13.5	73.5%

most

home	39.6%	draw	7.9%	away	52.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	19.4%	away_+3.5	80.6%	home_-0.5	39.6%
away_+0.5	60.4%	home_+2.5	63.2%	away_-2.5	36.8%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	9.5%	no	90.5%

home

yes	3.8%	no	96.2%

away

yes	5.9%	no	94.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Queens Park Rangers predictions · Preston North End predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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