Roma vs Inter prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Roma vs Inter: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Serie A
Roma

WWWWW

Sat, 19 Sep 202617:00UK25°C · Clear
Inter

DWWWW

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Draw or Inter

62%

Roma or draw

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
InterWin probability
38.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals79.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.26
Draw or Inter64.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Roma or draw61.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Roma and Inter on 19 September 2026: Inter nose ahead at 38%. Totals sit close to the fence: 55% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. Form guide over the last six: Roma W6 D0 L0, Inter W4 D2 L0. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Roma, 0 draws and 4 for Inter at 3.2 goals per match. For shots markets, Donyell Malen is the obvious watch at 1.8 on target per 90 in recent data. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners39.9%@ 2.51
Inter win38.3%@ 2.61
Over 10.5 corners31.1%@ 3.22
Medium risk

Both teams to score59.1%@ 1.69
Over 2.5 goals55.4%@ 1.81
Over 8.5 corners49.7%@ 2.01
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.1%@ 8.24
1-2 correct score8.5%@ 11.74
2-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.15

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Roma

35.6%

Draw

26.2%

Inter

38.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.1%

High probability

Over 2.555.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes59.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.549.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.539.9%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.6%

Low chance

Most cornersRoma54.2%Inter35.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.2%

Good chance

Over 26.539.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.0%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Roma20.0 taken7.3 faced
Inter21.3 taken10.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Roma (4 games)

10.8 / 10.5

Inter (4 games)

10.8 / 14.2

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.1%2.555.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.1%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

RomaWWWWW
InterDWWWW

Last 5 meetings: Roma 1 · 0 draws · Inter 4 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-04-05Inter 5-2 Roma
2025-10-18Roma 0-1 Inter
2025-04-27Inter 0-1 Roma
2024-10-20Roma 0-1 Inter
2024-02-10Roma 2-4 Inter

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

RomaInter
League position#1 of 20#2 of 20
Record W-D-L4-0-04-0-0
Current streakW4W4
Record, home vs away2-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 60%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Donyell MalenRoma · key player
To score34.9%

@ 2.87

1+ on target59.9%

@ 1.67

2+ shots62.1%

@ 1.61

Shots/90 4.17SoT/90 1.81Goals/90 0.85
Lautaro MartínezInter · key player
To score39.2%

@ 2.55

1+ on target70.3%

@ 1.42

2+ shots84.8%

@ 1.18

Shots/90 3.84SoT/90 1.39Goals/90 0.57
Paulo DybalaRoma · in form
To score15.5%

@ 6.45

1+ on target57.3%

@ 1.75

2+ shots62.8%

@ 1.59

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 1.21Goals/90 0.24
Francesco Pio EspositoInter · in form
To score20.5%

@ 4.88

1+ on target51.3%

@ 1.95

2+ shots53.6%

@ 1.87

Shots/90 3.44SoT/90 1.38Goals/90 0.44
Matìas Soulè MalvanoRoma · in form
To score18.9%

@ 5.29

1+ on target45.6%

@ 2.19

2+ shots50.9%

@ 1.96

Shots/90 2.36SoT/90 0.84Goals/90 0.29
Marcus ThuramInter · in form
To score33.4%

@ 2.99

1+ on target57.9%

@ 1.73

2+ shots66.8%

@ 1.50

Shots/90 3.05SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.54

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Roma win2.78
Draw3.86
Inter win2.62
Both teams to score1.69

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.80
Over 3.5 goals3.02
Roma most2.78
Inter most2.62

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.61
Over 8.5 corners1.97
Over 9.5 corners2.50
Over 10.5 corners3.30
Roma most1.84
Inter most2.84

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.51
Over 3.5 cards2.22
Over 4.5 cards3.70
Over 5.5 cards6.91
Roma most3.01
Inter most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.49
Over 7.5 SoT1.80
Over 8.5 SoT2.27
Over 9.5 SoT2.97
Roma most2.10
Inter most2.48

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.95
Over 26.5 shots2.53
Over 28.5 shots3.45
Roma most1.70
Inter most2.83

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.43
Over 22.5 fouls1.76
Over 24.5 fouls2.30
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 63.2% Over 24.5 51.2% Over 26.5 39.6% Over 28.5 28.9%
Most: Roma 58.8% Most: Inter 35.4%
Roma Over 13.2 47.4% Inter Over 13.2 30.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 67.3% Over 7.5 55.7% Over 8.5 44.2% Over 9.5 33.7%
Most: Roma 47.6% Most: Inter 40.4%
Roma Over 4.2 42.0% Inter Over 4.2 36.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 66.0% Over 3.5 45.0% Over 4.5 27.1%
Most: Roma 33.2% Most: Inter 45.0%
Roma Over 1.8 46.2% Inter Over 1.8 54.9%

Roma: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Donyell Malen 4.17 1.81 0.85 59.9% 62.1% 34.9%
Paulo Dybala 3.03 1.21 0.24 57.3% 62.8% 15.5%
Matìas Soulè Malvano 2.36 0.84 0.29 45.6% 50.9% 18.9%
Santiago Castro 2.44 0.76 0.28 41.5% 51.3% 17.9%
Niccolò Pisilli 1.72 0.5 0.22 22.4% 21.7% 10.5%

Inter: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Lautaro Martínez 3.84 1.39 0.57 70.3% 84.8% 39.2%
Francesco Pio Esposito 3.44 1.38 0.44 51.3% 53.6% 20.5%
Marcus Thuram 3.05 1.15 0.54 57.9% 66.8% 33.4%
Hakan Calhanoglu 2.41 0.8 0.38 46.4% 56.1% 25.7%
Ange-Yoan Bonny 2.11 0.76 0.28 34.7% 33.2% 14.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Roma clean sheet 22.8%
Inter clean sheet 24.0%
Roma win to nil 16.7%
Inter win to nil 17.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 36.0% draw 25.9% away 38.1%
double_chance
1X 61.9% 12 74.1% X2 64.0%
dnb
home 48.5% away 51.5%
btts
yes 59.1% no 40.9%
clean_sheet
home 22.9% away 24.1%
win_to_nil
home 16.8% away 18.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.9% home_by_2 10.7% home_by_3plus 6.3%
away_by_1 19.6% away_by_2 11.4% away_by_3plus 7.1%
correct_score
0-0 6.1% 0-1 7.5% 0-2 6.0%
0-3 2.9% 0-4 1.1% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 7.2% 1-1 12.1% 1-2 8.5%
1-3 4.2% 1-4 1.5% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.6% 2-1 8.2% 2-2 6.1%
2-3 3.0% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.7% 3-1 3.9% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.9% under_0.5 6.1% over_1.5 79.1%
under_1.5 20.9% over_2.5 55.4% under_2.5 44.6%
over_3.5 33.1% under_3.5 66.9% over_4.5 16.9%
under_4.5 83.1% over_5.5 7.4% under_5.5 92.6%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 75.9% under_0.5 24.1% over_1.5 41.7%
under_1.5 58.3% over_2.5 17.3% under_2.5 82.7%
team_away
over_0.5 77.1% under_0.5 22.9% over_1.5 43.4%
under_1.5 56.6% over_2.5 18.5% under_2.5 81.5%
most
home 36.0% draw 25.9% away 38.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.3% away_+2.5 93.7% home_-1.5 17.0%
away_+1.5 83.0% home_-0.5 36.0% away_+0.5 64.0%
home_+0.5 61.9% away_-0.5 38.1% home_+1.5 81.5%
away_-1.5 18.5% home_+2.5 92.9% away_-2.5 7.1%
total_exact
exact_0 6.1% exact_1 14.8% exact_2 23.7%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.2% exact_5 9.4%
exact_6 4.6% exact_7plus 2.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.3% draw 42.0% away 23.7%
total
over_0.5 69.5% under_0.5 30.5% over_1.5 33.3%
under_1.5 66.8% over_2.5 11.8% under_2.5 88.2%
btts
yes 19.7% no 80.4%
total_exact
exact_0 30.5% exact_1 36.2% exact_2 21.5%
exact_3 8.5% exact_4plus 3.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.3% draw 32.9% away 36.9%
total
over_0.5 83.3% under_0.5 16.7% over_1.5 53.4%
under_1.5 46.6% over_2.5 26.7% under_2.5 73.3%
btts
yes 34.8% no 65.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 24.1% H/D 6.5% H/A 3.6%
D/H 12.7% D/D 13.8% D/A 15.5%
A/H 2.0% A/D 4.1% A/A 17.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.2% under_7.5 37.8% over_8.5 50.9%
under_8.5 49.1% over_9.5 40.0% under_9.5 60.0%
over_10.5 30.3% under_10.5 69.7% over_11.5 22.1%
under_11.5 77.9% over_12.5 15.7% under_12.5 84.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.6% under_3.5 34.4% over_4.5 50.8%
under_4.5 49.2% over_5.5 37.3% under_5.5 62.7%
team_away
over_3.5 51.9% under_3.5 48.1% over_4.5 36.4%
under_4.5 63.6% over_5.5 23.9% under_5.5 76.1%
most
home 54.4% draw 10.4% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.9% away_+3.5 75.1% home_-1.5 43.7%
away_+1.5 56.3% home_-0.5 54.4% away_+0.5 45.6%
home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.2% home_+1.5 74.1%
away_-1.5 25.9% home_+3.5 88.0% away_-3.5 12.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.2% under_22.5 36.8% over_24.5 51.2%
under_24.5 48.8% over_26.5 39.6% under_26.5 60.5%
over_28.5 29.0% under_28.5 71.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.2% under_10.5 28.8% over_12.5 55.4%
under_12.5 44.6% over_14.5 39.7% under_14.5 60.3%
team_away
over_10.5 55.8% under_10.5 44.2% over_12.5 38.5%
under_12.5 61.5% over_14.5 24.2% under_14.5 75.8%
most
home 58.8% draw 5.8% away 35.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.9% away_+4.5 65.1% home_-2.5 46.7%
away_+2.5 53.3% home_-0.5 58.8% away_+0.5 41.2%
home_+0.5 64.6% away_-0.5 35.4% home_+2.5 75.2%
away_-2.5 24.8% home_+4.5 83.7% away_-4.5 16.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 67.3% under_6.5 32.7% over_7.5 55.7%
under_7.5 44.3% over_8.5 44.2% under_8.5 55.9%
over_9.5 33.7% under_9.5 66.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 58.0% under_3.5 42.0% over_4.5 42.0%
under_4.5 58.0% over_5.5 28.5% under_5.5 71.5%
team_away
over_3.5 52.9% under_3.5 47.1% over_4.5 36.8%
under_4.5 63.2% over_5.5 23.9% under_5.5 76.1%
most
home 47.6% draw 12.0% away 40.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 25.6% away_+2.5 74.5% home_-0.5 47.6%
away_+0.5 52.4% home_+0.5 59.6% away_-0.5 40.4%
home_+2.5 80.1% away_-2.5 20.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 66.0% under_2.5 34.0% over_3.5 45.0%
under_3.5 55.0% over_4.5 27.1% under_4.5 73.0%
over_5.5 14.5% under_5.5 85.5%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 46.2% under_1.5 53.8% over_2.5 21.5%
under_2.5 78.5%
team_away
over_1.5 54.9% under_1.5 45.1% over_2.5 29.2%
under_2.5 70.8%
most
home 33.2% draw 21.8% away 45.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.4% away_+1.5 83.6% home_-0.5 33.2%
away_+0.5 66.8% home_+0.5 55.0% away_-0.5 45.0%
home_+1.5 74.7% away_-1.5 25.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 69.9% under_20.5 30.1% over_22.5 56.8%
under_22.5 43.2% over_24.5 43.4% under_24.5 56.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 66.6% under_9.5 33.4% over_11.5 47.1%
under_11.5 52.9% over_13.5 29.5% under_13.5 70.5%
team_away
over_9.5 72.9% under_9.5 27.1% over_11.5 54.6%
under_11.5 45.5% over_13.5 36.5% under_13.5 63.5%
most
home 41.4% draw 6.8% away 51.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.3% away_+3.5 76.8% home_-0.5 41.4%
away_+0.5 58.6% home_+2.5 61.6% away_-2.5 38.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.0% no 89.0%
home
yes 7.2% no 92.8%
away
yes 4.1% no 95.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Roma predictions · Inter predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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