Udinese vs Cagliari prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Udinese vs Cagliari: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Serie A
Udinese

LDWLL

Sat, 19 Sep 202614:00UK25°C · Clearing
Cagliari

WWLWW

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Udinese or draw

60%

Draw or Cagliari

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
UdineseWin probability
40.5%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals72.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Udinese or draw68.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Draw or Cagliari59.5%Good chancePays @ 1.68

Model read

▾

Udinese versus Cagliari in the Serie A on 19 September 2026 is finely balanced. Udinese edge it at 40%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Udinese, 2 draws and 0 for Cagliari, averaging 2.2 goals a game. • Recent form reads W1 D1 L4 for Udinese against W5 D0 L1 for Cagliari. Keinan Davis drives the home shot volume, 1.0 on target per 90. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.9%@ 2.18
Over 9.5 corners40.3%@ 2.48
Over 10.5 corners31.4%@ 3.18
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals54.1%@ 1.85
Both teams to score51.6%@ 1.94
Over 8.5 corners50.1%@ 2.00
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.47
1-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.90
0-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.12

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Udinese

40.5%

Draw

28.4%

Cagliari

31.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.9%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.550.1%

Good chance

Over 9.540.3%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.9%

Low chance

Most cornersUdinese52.0%Cagliari37.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.5%

Good chance

Over 26.538.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.3%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Udinese10.8 taken17.0 faced
Cagliari14.5 taken17.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Udinese (4 games)

6.8 / 4.5

Cagliari (4 games)

4.2 / 8.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.2%2.545.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.2%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

UdineseLDWLL
CagliariWWLWW

Last 5 meetings: Udinese 3 · 2 draws · Cagliari 0 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-05-09Cagliari 0-2 Udinese
2025-10-05Udinese 1-1 Cagliari
2025-05-03Cagliari 1-2 Udinese
2024-10-25Udinese 2-0 Cagliari
2024-02-18Udinese 1-1 Cagliari

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

UdineseCagliari
League position#13 of 20#5 of 20
Record W-D-L1-1-23-0-1
Current streakL2W2
Record, home vs away0-1-12-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 60%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Keinan DavisUdinese · key player
To score20.2%

@ 4.95

1+ on target51.3%

@ 1.95

2+ shots45.9%

@ 2.18

Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.32
Mattia FeliciCagliari · key player
To score6.0%

@ 16.67

1+ on target32.6%

@ 3.07

2+ shots11.4%

@ 8.77

Shots/90 1.3SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.14
Nicolo ZanioloUdinese · in form
To score12.1%

@ 8.26

1+ on target42.2%

@ 2.37

2+ shots50.5%

@ 1.98

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.21
Paul MendyCagliari · in form
To score20.5%

@ 4.88

1+ on target37.1%

@ 2.70

2+ shots50.5%

@ 1.98

Shots/90 3.25SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.44
Idrissa GueyeUdinese · in form
To score7.6%

@ 13.16

1+ on target21.4%

@ 4.67

2+ shots29.4%

@ 3.40

Shots/90 3.94SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.29
Daniel MaldiniCagliari · in form
To score16.0%

@ 6.25

1+ on target38.3%

@ 2.61

2+ shots43.0%

@ 2.33

Shots/90 2.61SoT/90 0.86Goals/90 0.31

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Udinese win2.55
Draw3.56
Cagliari win3.06
Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.39
Over 2.5 goals2.18
Over 3.5 goals4.08
Udinese most2.55
Cagliari most3.06

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.60
Over 8.5 corners1.95
Over 9.5 corners2.47
Over 10.5 corners3.26
Udinese most1.92
Cagliari most2.68

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.52
Over 3.5 cards2.23
Over 4.5 cards3.72
Over 5.5 cards6.97
Udinese most2.87
Cagliari most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.85
Over 8.5 SoT2.35
Over 9.5 SoT3.10
Udinese most2.02
Cagliari most2.61

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots1.98
Over 26.5 shots2.58
Over 28.5 shots3.53
Udinese most1.68
Cagliari most2.89

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.33
Over 22.5 fouls1.59
Over 24.5 fouls2.01
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 62.5% Over 24.5 50.5% Over 26.5 38.8% Over 28.5 28.3%
Most: Udinese 59.7% Most: Cagliari 34.6%
Udinese Over 13.2 47.4% Cagliari Over 13.2 29.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.0% Over 7.5 54.2% Over 8.5 42.6% Over 9.5 32.2%
Most: Udinese 49.6% Most: Cagliari 38.3%
Udinese Over 4.2 42.3% Cagliari Over 4.2 34.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 65.9% Over 3.5 44.8% Over 4.5 26.9%
Most: Udinese 34.8% Most: Cagliari 43.3%
Udinese Over 1.8 47.3% Cagliari Over 1.8 53.6%

Udinese: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Keinan Davis 2.2 1.02 0.32 51.3% 45.9% 20.2%
Nicolo Zaniolo 2.75 0.89 0.21 42.2% 50.5% 12.1%
Idrissa Gueye 3.94 0.88 0.29 21.4% 29.4% 7.6%
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 1.38 0.57 0.2 34.6% 27.4% 13.8%
Vakoun Bayo 3.08 0.54 0 15.2% 24.3% 0.0%

Cagliari: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Mattia Felici 1.3 0.89 0.14 32.6% 11.4% 6.0%
Paul Mendy 3.25 0.89 0.44 37.1% 50.5% 20.5%
Daniel Maldini 2.61 0.86 0.31 38.3% 43.0% 16.0%
Gennaro Borrelli 2.23 0.83 0.35 33.7% 30.3% 15.9%
Kevin Omoruyi 2.19 0.7 0 24.5% 22.1% 0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Udinese clean sheet 30.4%
Cagliari clean sheet 26.5%
Udinese win to nil 21.7%
Cagliari win to nil 17.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.2% draw 28.1% away 32.7%
double_chance
1X 67.3% 12 71.9% X2 60.8%
dnb
home 54.6% away 45.4%
btts
yes 51.7% no 48.4%
clean_sheet
home 30.5% away 26.6%
win_to_nil
home 21.8% away 17.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.1% home_by_2 11.7% home_by_3plus 6.5%
away_by_1 18.8% away_by_2 9.4% away_by_3plus 4.5%
correct_score
0-0 8.7% 0-1 9.0% 0-2 5.7%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.1% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 7.6%
1-3 3.0% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.1% 2-1 8.5% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.2% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 2.2%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.3% under_0.5 8.7% over_1.5 72.2%
under_1.5 27.8% over_2.5 45.9% under_2.5 54.1%
over_3.5 24.5% under_3.5 75.5% over_4.5 11.1%
under_4.5 88.9% over_5.5 4.3% under_5.5 95.7%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 73.4% under_0.5 26.6% over_1.5 38.2%
under_1.5 61.8% over_2.5 14.9% under_2.5 85.1%
team_away
over_0.5 69.5% under_0.5 30.5% over_1.5 33.3%
under_1.5 66.7% over_2.5 11.8% under_2.5 88.2%
most
home 39.2% draw 28.1% away 32.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.5% away_+2.5 93.5% home_-1.5 18.1%
away_+1.5 81.9% home_-0.5 39.2% away_+0.5 60.8%
home_+0.5 67.3% away_-0.5 32.7% home_+1.5 86.2%
away_-1.5 13.9% home_+2.5 95.5% away_-2.5 4.5%
total_exact
exact_0 8.7% exact_1 19.1% exact_2 26.2%
exact_3 21.4% exact_4 13.5% exact_5 6.8%
exact_6 2.8% exact_7plus 1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.3% draw 42.9% away 21.8%
total
over_0.5 67.9% under_0.5 32.1% over_1.5 31.4%
under_1.5 68.6% over_2.5 10.7% under_2.5 89.3%
btts
yes 18.2% no 81.8%
total_exact
exact_0 32.1% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.7%
exact_3 7.9% exact_4plus 2.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.4% draw 38.6% away 32.0%
total
over_0.5 74.9% under_0.5 25.1% over_1.5 40.2%
under_1.5 59.8% over_2.5 16.2% under_2.5 83.8%
btts
yes 24.9% no 75.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.4% H/D 6.3% H/A 2.6%
D/H 12.6% D/D 16.6% D/A 13.7%
A/H 1.5% A/D 3.9% A/A 16.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.6% under_7.5 37.4% over_8.5 51.3%
under_8.5 48.7% over_9.5 40.4% under_9.5 59.6%
over_10.5 30.7% under_10.5 69.3% over_11.5 22.5%
under_11.5 77.5% over_12.5 15.9% under_12.5 84.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.4% under_3.5 35.6% over_4.5 49.6%
under_4.5 50.4% over_5.5 36.1% under_5.5 63.9%
team_away
over_3.5 53.9% under_3.5 46.1% over_4.5 38.4%
under_4.5 61.6% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.3%
most
home 52.2% draw 10.5% away 37.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.3% away_+3.5 76.8% home_-1.5 41.6%
away_+1.5 58.4% home_-0.5 52.2% away_+0.5 47.8%
home_+0.5 62.6% away_-0.5 37.4% home_+1.5 72.2%
away_-1.5 27.8% home_+3.5 86.7% away_-3.5 13.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.5% under_22.5 37.5% over_24.5 50.5%
under_24.5 49.5% over_26.5 38.8% under_26.5 61.2%
over_28.5 28.3% under_28.5 71.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.3% under_10.5 28.7% over_12.5 55.4%
under_12.5 44.6% over_14.5 39.8% under_14.5 60.2%
team_away
over_10.5 54.6% under_10.5 45.4% over_12.5 37.3%
under_12.5 62.7% over_14.5 23.2% under_14.5 76.8%
most
home 59.7% draw 5.8% away 34.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.7% away_+4.5 64.3% home_-2.5 47.6%
away_+2.5 52.4% home_-0.5 59.7% away_+0.5 40.4%
home_+0.5 65.5% away_-0.5 34.6% home_+2.5 75.9%
away_-2.5 24.1% home_+4.5 84.3% away_-4.5 15.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.0% under_6.5 34.0% over_7.5 54.2%
under_7.5 45.8% over_8.5 42.6% under_8.5 57.4%
over_9.5 32.2% under_9.5 67.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 58.3% under_3.5 41.7% over_4.5 42.3%
under_4.5 57.7% over_5.5 28.8% under_5.5 71.2%
team_away
over_3.5 50.3% under_3.5 49.7% over_4.5 34.2%
under_4.5 65.8% over_5.5 21.7% under_5.5 78.3%
most
home 49.6% draw 12.1% away 38.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.0% away_+2.5 73.0% home_-0.5 49.6%
away_+0.5 50.4% home_+0.5 61.7% away_-0.5 38.3%
home_+2.5 81.7% away_-2.5 18.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 65.9% under_2.5 34.1% over_3.5 44.8%
under_3.5 55.2% over_4.5 26.9% under_4.5 73.1%
over_5.5 14.3% under_5.5 85.7%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 47.3% under_1.5 52.7% over_2.5 22.4%
under_2.5 77.6%
team_away
over_1.5 53.6% under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 28.0%
under_2.5 72.1%
most
home 34.8% draw 21.9% away 43.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.5% away_+1.5 82.5% home_-0.5 34.8%
away_+0.5 65.2% home_+0.5 56.7% away_-0.5 43.3%
home_+1.5 76.1% away_-1.5 23.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 75.1% under_20.5 25.0% over_22.5 62.9%
under_22.5 37.1% over_24.5 49.8% under_24.5 50.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 76.4% under_9.5 23.6% over_11.5 59.0%
under_11.5 41.1% over_13.5 40.9% under_13.5 59.1%
team_away
over_9.5 70.5% under_9.5 29.5% over_11.5 51.6%
under_11.5 48.4% over_13.5 33.6% under_13.5 66.4%
most
home 52.0% draw 6.6% away 41.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 32.6% away_+3.5 67.4% home_-0.5 52.0%
away_+0.5 48.0% home_+2.5 70.9% away_-2.5 29.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.3% no 89.7%
home
yes 7.4% no 92.6%
away
yes 3.2% no 96.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Udinese predictions · Cagliari predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Serie AUdineseCagliariTrack record