La Coruna vs Sevilla prediction & probabilities (2026-09-16)

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La Coruna vs Sevilla: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

La Liga
La Coruna

DDWWD

Wed, 16 Sep 202618:00UK19°C · Cloudy
Sevilla

WWLDW

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

La Coruna or draw

63%

Draw or Sevilla

Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.007 <= 0.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
La CorunaWin probability
37.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
La Coruna or draw65.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.53
Draw or Sevilla62.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.60

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate La Coruna and Sevilla on 16 September 2026: La Coruna nose ahead at 37%. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 40%. No strong lean on goals (45% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Recent form reads W2 D3 L1 for La Coruna against W3 D1 L2 for Sevilla. As a promoted side, La Coruna carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. For shots markets, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the obvious watch at 1.5 on target per 90 in recent data. The recent series reads 0 wins for La Coruna, 2 draws and 3 for Sevilla over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.007 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.4%@ 2.20
Over 10.5 corners37.8%@ 2.65
Sevilla win34.8%@ 2.88
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.0%@ 1.69
Under 2.5 goals54.6%@ 1.83
Both teams to score51.3%@ 1.95
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.44
1-0 correct score9.9%@ 10.09
0-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.58

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

La Coruna

37.4%-2.3%

Draw

27.8%-1.1%

Sevilla

34.8%+3.4%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.007 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.4%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.0%

Good chance

Over 9.548.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.6%

Low chance

Most cornersLa Coruna53.5%Sevilla35.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.557.5%

Good chance

Over 24.544.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.532.7%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.5%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

La Coruna9.2 taken15.0 faced
Sevilla11.3 taken10.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

La Coruna (4 games)

3.8 / 5.0

Sevilla (5 games)

4.0 / 8.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.7%2.545.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.7%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.007 <= 0.

Form & head-to-head

La CorunaDDWWD
SevillaWWLDW

Last 5 meetings: La Coruna 0 · 2 draws · Sevilla 3 · 3.0 goals/game.

2018-04-17La Coruna 0-0 Sevilla
2017-12-02Sevilla 2-0 La Coruna
2017-04-08Sevilla 4-2 La Coruna
2016-11-19La Coruna 2-3 Sevilla
2016-04-17Sevilla 1-1 La Coruna

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

La CorunaSevilla
League position#7 of 20#6 of 20
Record W-D-L2-3-03-1-1
Current streakD1W1
Points per game1.802.00
Record, home vs away1-1-01-1-0
Goals scored per game1.801.60
Goals conceded per game1.201.20
1st half goals per game1.000.20
2nd half goals per game0.801.40
Corners won per game3.83.6
Cards per game2.43.4
Fouls per game13.215.0
Red cards this season12
Shots per game8.611.8
Shots faced per game13.610.2
Shots on target per game3.44.0
1st half shots per game3.84.0
2nd half shots per game5.08.0
xG for per game1.251.16
xG against per game1.721.35
Over 2.5 rate

40.0%60.0%

BTTS rate

100.0%80.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%20.0%

Rates this season:La CorunaSevilla

League averages this season: 2.98 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Pierre-Emerick AubameyangLa Coruna · key player
To score35.8%

@ 2.79

1+ on target70.6%

@ 1.42

2+ shots63.1%

@ 1.58

Shots/90 2.66SoT/90 1.52Goals/90 0.55
AlfonSevilla · key player
To score14.1%

@ 7.09

1+ on target49.0%

@ 2.04

2+ shots35.1%

@ 2.85

Shots/90 2.61SoT/90 1.42Goals/90 0.32
Adama TraoréLa Coruna · in form
To score1.7%

@ 58.82

1+ on target15.5%

@ 6.45

2+ shots12.0%

@ 8.33

Shots/90 1.73SoT/90 0.49Goals/90 0.05
Lucas StassinSevilla · in form
To score36.2%

@ 2.76

1+ on target56.2%

@ 1.78

2+ shots46.0%

@ 2.17

Shots/90 2.07SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.6
Mario SorianoLa Coruna · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target15.7%

@ 6.37

2+ shots14.4%

@ 6.94

Shots/90 0.78SoT/90 0.2Goals/90 0
Isaac RomeroSevilla · in form
To score14.1%

@ 7.09

1+ on target37.8%

@ 2.65

2+ shots42.2%

@ 2.37

Shots/90 2.18SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.23

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
La Coruna win2.402.67
Draw3.253.59
Sevilla win3.002.88
Over 2.5 goals2.202.20
Under 2.5 goals1.671.83

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

La Coruna win2.70
Draw3.53
Sevilla win2.89
Both teams to score1.95

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.40
Over 2.5 goals2.20
Over 3.5 goals4.15
La Coruna most2.70
Sevilla most2.89

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.63
Over 9.5 corners2.04
Over 10.5 corners2.67
La Coruna most1.86
Sevilla most2.81

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.49
Over 4.5 cards2.04
Over 5.5 cards3.10
La Coruna most3.01
Sevilla most2.07

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.09
Over 9.5 SoT2.81
La Coruna most1.76
Sevilla most3.27

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.74
Over 24.5 shots2.24
Over 26.5 shots3.06
Over 28.5 shots4.44
La Coruna most1.63
Sevilla most3.08

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.23
Over 22.5 fouls1.42
Over 24.5 fouls1.74
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 57.5% Over 24.5 44.6% Over 26.5 32.7% Over 28.5 22.5%
Most: La Coruna 61.4% Most: Sevilla 32.5%
La Coruna Over 13.2 44.2% Sevilla Over 13.2 24.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.1% Over 7.5 60.7% Over 8.5 47.8% Over 9.5 35.6%
Most: La Coruna 57.0% Most: Sevilla 30.6%
La Coruna Over 4.2 51.4% Sevilla Over 4.2 32.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 83.1% Over 3.5 67.1% Over 4.5 49.0%
Most: La Coruna 33.3% Most: Sevilla 48.4%
La Coruna Over 1.8 61.1% Sevilla Over 1.8 70.8%

La Coruna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 2.66 1.52 0.55 70.6% 63.1% 35.8%
Adama Traoré 1.73 0.49 0.05 15.5% 12.0% 1.7%
Mario Soriano 0.78 0.2 0 15.7% 14.4% 0.0%
Giacomo Quagliata 0.83 0.17 0 15.6% 20.2% 0.0%
Giménez 0.54 0.11 0 8.3% 6.8% 0.0%

Sevilla: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Alfon 2.61 1.42 0.32 49.0% 35.1% 14.1%
Lucas Stassin 2.07 1.1 0.6 56.2% 46.0% 36.2%
Isaac Romero 2.18 0.72 0.23 37.8% 42.2% 14.1%
Chidera Ejuke 2.14 0.59 0.21 18.8% 17.5% 7.1%
Peque 1.63 0.54 0.17 22.0% 17.3% 7.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

La Coruna clean sheet 29.5%
Sevilla clean sheet 28.0%
La Coruna win to nil 20.6%
Sevilla win to nil 19.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 37.0% draw 28.3% away 34.6%
double_chance
1X 65.4% 12 71.7% X2 63.0%
dnb
home 51.7% away 48.3%
btts
yes 51.3% no 48.7%
clean_sheet
home 29.6% away 28.1%
win_to_nil
home 20.6% away 19.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.5% home_by_2 10.9% home_by_3plus 5.7%
away_by_1 19.6% away_by_2 10.0% away_by_3plus 5.0%
correct_score
0-0 9.0% 0-1 9.5% 0-2 6.2%
0-3 2.5% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.9% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 7.8%
1-3 3.2% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 6.7% 2-1 8.1% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.8% 3-1 3.5% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.9% 4-1 1.1% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.0% under_0.5 9.0% over_1.5 71.7%
under_1.5 28.3% over_2.5 45.4% under_2.5 54.6%
over_3.5 24.1% under_3.5 75.9% over_4.5 10.8%
under_4.5 89.2% over_5.5 4.2% under_5.5 95.8%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 71.9% under_0.5 28.1% over_1.5 36.3%
under_1.5 63.7% over_2.5 13.6% under_2.5 86.4%
team_away
over_0.5 70.4% under_0.5 29.6% over_1.5 34.5%
under_1.5 65.5% over_2.5 12.6% under_2.5 87.4%
most
home 37.0% draw 28.3% away 34.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.7% away_+2.5 94.3% home_-1.5 16.6%
away_+1.5 83.4% home_-0.5 37.0% away_+0.5 63.0%
home_+0.5 65.4% away_-0.5 34.6% home_+1.5 84.9%
away_-1.5 15.1% home_+2.5 95.0% away_-2.5 5.0%
total_exact
exact_0 9.0% exact_1 19.4% exact_2 26.3%
exact_3 21.3% exact_4 13.3% exact_5 6.6%
exact_6 2.8% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 52.3% draw 34.1% away 13.6%
total
over_0.5 76.7% under_0.5 23.3% over_1.5 42.8%
under_1.5 57.2% over_2.5 18.1% under_2.5 81.9%
btts
yes 21.3% no 78.7%
total_exact
exact_0 23.3% exact_1 33.9% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 12.0% exact_4plus 6.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.8% draw 36.8% away 24.5%
total
over_0.5 77.0% under_0.5 23.0% over_1.5 43.2%
under_1.5 56.8% over_2.5 18.4% under_2.5 81.6%
btts
yes 26.4% no 73.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 43.9% H/D 6.3% H/A 2.1%
D/H 13.2% D/D 12.5% D/A 8.4%
A/H 1.6% A/D 3.1% A/A 9.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.1% under_7.5 26.9% over_8.5 61.4%
under_8.5 38.6% over_9.5 49.1% under_9.5 50.9%
over_10.5 37.4% under_10.5 62.6% over_11.5 27.1%
under_11.5 72.9% over_12.5 18.7% under_12.5 81.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.2% under_3.5 26.8% over_4.5 57.7%
under_4.5 42.3% over_5.5 42.3% under_5.5 57.7%
team_away
over_3.5 61.2% under_3.5 38.8% over_4.5 43.9%
under_4.5 56.1% over_5.5 29.0% under_5.5 71.0%
most
home 53.7% draw 10.8% away 35.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.1% away_+3.5 76.9% home_-1.5 42.6%
away_+1.5 57.4% home_-0.5 53.7% away_+0.5 46.4%
home_+0.5 64.4% away_-0.5 35.6% home_+1.5 74.2%
away_-1.5 25.8% home_+3.5 88.5% away_-3.5 11.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 57.5% under_22.5 42.5% over_24.5 44.6%
under_24.5 55.4% over_26.5 32.7% under_26.5 67.3%
over_28.5 22.5% under_28.5 77.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.7% under_10.5 30.3% over_12.5 52.7%
under_12.5 47.3% over_14.5 36.2% under_14.5 63.8%
team_away
over_10.5 49.9% under_10.5 50.1% over_12.5 31.9%
under_12.5 68.1% over_14.5 18.3% under_14.5 81.8%
most
home 61.4% draw 6.1% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.8% away_+4.5 64.2% home_-2.5 48.5%
away_+2.5 51.5% home_-0.5 61.4% away_+0.5 38.6%
home_+0.5 67.5% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+2.5 78.3%
away_-2.5 21.7% home_+4.5 86.7% away_-4.5 13.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.1% under_6.5 26.9% over_7.5 60.7%
under_7.5 39.3% over_8.5 47.8% under_8.5 52.2%
over_9.5 35.6% under_9.5 64.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.7% under_3.5 31.3% over_4.5 51.4%
under_4.5 48.6% over_5.5 35.2% under_5.5 64.8%
team_away
over_3.5 50.5% under_3.5 49.5% over_4.5 32.3%
under_4.5 67.7% over_5.5 18.5% under_5.5 81.5%
most
home 57.0% draw 12.5% away 30.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.5% away_+2.5 68.5% home_-0.5 57.0%
away_+0.5 43.0% home_+0.5 69.4% away_-0.5 30.6%
home_+2.5 87.9% away_-2.5 12.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 83.1% under_2.5 16.9% over_3.5 67.1%
under_3.5 32.9% over_4.5 49.0% under_4.5 51.0%
over_5.5 32.3% under_5.5 67.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 61.1% under_1.5 38.9% over_2.5 34.9%
under_2.5 65.1%
team_away
over_1.5 70.8% under_1.5 29.2% over_2.5 46.1%
under_2.5 53.9%
most
home 33.3% draw 18.4% away 48.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.4% away_+1.5 81.6% home_-0.5 33.3%
away_+0.5 66.7% home_+0.5 51.6% away_-0.5 48.4%
home_+1.5 69.4% away_-1.5 30.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 81.5% under_20.5 18.6% over_22.5 70.3%
under_22.5 29.7% over_24.5 57.4% under_24.5 42.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 75.9% under_9.5 24.1% over_11.5 57.5%
under_11.5 42.6% over_13.5 38.5% under_13.5 61.5%
team_away
over_9.5 81.1% under_9.5 18.9% over_11.5 64.5%
under_11.5 35.5% over_13.5 45.9% under_13.5 54.1%
most
home 41.4% draw 6.7% away 51.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.4% away_+3.5 76.6% home_-0.5 41.4%
away_+0.5 58.6% home_+2.5 61.6% away_-2.5 38.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.9% no 80.1%
home
yes 12.4% no 87.6%
away
yes 8.6% no 91.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: La Coruna predictions · Sevilla predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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