Auxerre vs Brest prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Auxerre vs Brest: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Auxerre

WWLLL

Sun, 20 Sep 202614:00UK22°C · Cloudy
Brest

LDDDW

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Draw or Brest

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BrestWin probability
38.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals78.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Draw or Brest64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Over 8.5 corners62.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Auxerre and Brest on 20 September 2026: Brest nose ahead at 38%. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Theo Bair drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. • The recent series reads 2 wins for Auxerre, 1 draws and 2 for Brest over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. The run in: Auxerre arrive W3 D0 L3, Brest W1 D3 L2. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.1%@ 2.43
Brest win38.3%@ 2.61
Over 11.5 corners31.8%@ 3.14
Medium risk

Auxerre or draw61.7%@ 1.62
Both teams to score58.3%@ 1.72
Over 2.5 goals54.3%@ 1.84
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.13
1-2 correct score8.4%@ 11.85
2-1 correct score8.3%@ 12.09

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Auxerre

35.5%

Draw

26.2%

Brest

38.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.4%

High probability

Over 2.554.3%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes58.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.4%

Good chance

Over 10.541.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersAuxerre57.0%Brest32.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.0%

Good chance

Over 26.539.7%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.5%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Auxerre12.7 taken13.2 faced
Brest18.8 taken12.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Auxerre (3 games)

6.0 / 6.3

Brest (3 games)

8.7 / 15.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.4%2.554.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.4%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

AuxerreWWLLL
BrestLDDDW

Last 5 meetings: Auxerre 2 · 1 draws · Brest 2 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-03-21Auxerre 3-0 Brest
2026-01-04Brest 2-0 Auxerre
2025-02-14Brest 2-2 Auxerre
2024-09-27Auxerre 3-0 Brest
2023-05-14Brest 1-0 Auxerre

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AuxerreBrest
League position#18 of 18#7 of 18
Record W-D-L0-0-31-2-0
Current streakL3W1
Record, home vs away0-0-11-1-0
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Theo BairAuxerre · key player
To score6.7%

@ 14.93

1+ on target33.9%

@ 2.95

2+ shots21.4%

@ 4.67

Shots/90 3SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.24
Noah EdjoumaBrest · key player
To score7.4%

@ 13.51

1+ on target23.6%

@ 4.24

2+ shots12.7%

@ 7.87

Shots/90 3.04SoT/90 1.33Goals/90 0.38
Remy Labeau LascaryAuxerre · in form
To score17.6%

@ 5.68

1+ on target45.5%

@ 2.20

2+ shots37.0%

@ 2.70

Shots/90 2.53SoT/90 1.19Goals/90 0.38
Pathé MboupBrest · in form
To score3.2%

@ 31.25

1+ on target41.3%

@ 2.42

2+ shots32.2%

@ 3.11

Shots/90 2.46SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.07
Romain FaivreAuxerre · in form
To score9.1%

@ 10.99

1+ on target36.2%

@ 2.76

2+ shots25.3%

@ 3.95

Shots/90 1.83SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.18
Ludovic AjorqueBrest · in form
To score27.7%

@ 3.61

1+ on target51.1%

@ 1.96

2+ shots56.0%

@ 1.79

Shots/90 1.97SoT/90 0.75Goals/90 0.34

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Auxerre win2.76
Draw3.83
Brest win2.66
Both teams to score1.72

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.84
Over 3.5 goals3.12
Auxerre most2.76
Brest most2.66

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.54
Over 9.5 corners1.89
Over 10.5 corners2.43
Auxerre most1.75
Brest most3.07

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.93
Over 4.5 cards3.09
Over 5.5 cards5.63
Auxerre most2.98
Brest most2.21

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.53
Over 8.5 SoT1.89
Over 9.5 SoT2.44
Auxerre most1.90
Brest most2.85

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.55
Over 24.5 shots1.92
Over 26.5 shots2.52
Over 28.5 shots3.50
Auxerre most1.62
Brest most3.08

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.26
Over 22.5 fouls1.48
Over 24.5 fouls1.86
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.5% Over 24.5 52.0% Over 26.5 39.7% Over 28.5 28.5%
Most: Auxerre 61.6% Most: Brest 32.4%
Auxerre Over 13.2 49.5% Brest Over 13.2 28.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.6% Over 7.5 65.3% Over 8.5 53.0% Over 9.5 40.9%
Most: Auxerre 52.7% Most: Brest 35.0%
Auxerre Over 4.2 52.0% Brest Over 4.2 39.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.4% Over 3.5 51.7% Over 4.5 32.3%
Most: Auxerre 33.5% Most: Brest 45.3%
Auxerre Over 1.8 51.6% Brest Over 1.8 60.1%

Auxerre: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Theo Bair 3 1.44 0.24 33.9% 21.4% 6.7%
Remy Labeau Lascary 2.53 1.19 0.38 45.5% 37.0% 17.6%
Romain Faivre 1.83 0.85 0.18 36.2% 25.3% 9.1%
Cameron Archer 1.91 0.72 0.24 29.9% 24.3% 11.2%
Danny Namaso 2.16 0.63 0.13 44.7% 60.2% 11.5%

Brest: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Noah Edjouma 3.04 1.33 0.38 23.6% 12.7% 7.4%
Pathé Mboup 2.46 1.13 0.07 41.3% 32.2% 3.2%
Ludovic Ajorque 1.97 0.75 0.34 51.1% 56.0% 27.7%
Kamory Doumbia 2.03 0.73 0.31 38.3% 38.8% 18.5%
Mama Baldé 3.06 0.59 0.18 23.6% 40.7% 7.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Auxerre clean sheet 23.6%
Brest clean sheet 24.3%
Auxerre win to nil 17.2%
Brest win to nil 18.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 36.3% draw 26.1% away 37.6%
double_chance
1X 62.4% 12 73.9% X2 63.7%
dnb
home 49.1% away 50.9%
btts
yes 58.3% no 41.7%
clean_sheet
home 23.7% away 24.4%
win_to_nil
home 17.3% away 18.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.2% home_by_2 10.8% home_by_3plus 6.3%
away_by_1 19.6% away_by_2 11.3% away_by_3plus 6.8%
correct_score
0-0 6.4% 0-1 7.7% 0-2 6.0%
0-3 2.9% 0-4 1.0% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 7.5% 1-1 12.3% 1-2 8.4%
1-3 4.1% 1-4 1.5% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.7% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.7% 3-1 3.9% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.7% under_0.5 6.4% over_1.5 78.4%
under_1.5 21.6% over_2.5 54.3% under_2.5 45.7%
over_3.5 32.0% under_3.5 68.0% over_4.5 16.1%
under_4.5 83.9% over_5.5 7.0% under_5.5 93.0%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.2%
under_1.5 58.8% over_2.5 17.0% under_2.5 83.0%
team_away
over_0.5 76.3% under_0.5 23.7% over_1.5 42.2%
under_1.5 57.8% over_2.5 17.7% under_2.5 82.3%
most
home 36.3% draw 26.1% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.3% away_+2.5 93.7% home_-1.5 17.1%
away_+1.5 82.9% home_-0.5 36.3% away_+0.5 63.7%
home_+0.5 62.4% away_-0.5 37.6% home_+1.5 82.0%
away_-1.5 18.0% home_+2.5 93.2% away_-2.5 6.8%
total_exact
exact_0 6.4% exact_1 15.3% exact_2 24.1%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.9% exact_5 9.1%
exact_6 4.3% exact_7plus 2.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.1% draw 37.5% away 29.4%
total
over_0.5 76.5% under_0.5 23.5% over_1.5 42.5%
under_1.5 57.5% over_2.5 17.8% under_2.5 82.2%
btts
yes 26.5% no 73.5%
total_exact
exact_0 23.5% exact_1 34.0% exact_2 24.6%
exact_3 11.9% exact_4plus 5.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.5% draw 37.4% away 31.2%
total
over_0.5 76.7% under_0.5 23.3% over_1.5 42.8%
under_1.5 57.2% over_2.5 18.1% under_2.5 82.0%
btts
yes 26.8% no 73.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.3% H/D 5.6% H/A 2.3%
D/H 11.8% D/D 14.0% D/A 11.7%
A/H 2.1% A/D 5.1% A/A 22.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.8% under_7.5 24.2% over_8.5 64.8%
under_8.5 35.2% over_9.5 52.9% under_9.5 47.1%
over_10.5 41.2% under_10.5 58.8% over_11.5 30.6%
under_11.5 69.4% over_12.5 21.7% under_12.5 78.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.6% under_3.5 23.4% over_4.5 62.2%
under_4.5 37.8% over_5.5 47.2% under_5.5 52.8%
team_away
over_3.5 60.8% under_3.5 39.2% over_4.5 43.7%
under_4.5 56.3% over_5.5 28.8% under_5.5 71.2%
most
home 57.1% draw 10.3% away 32.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.6% away_+3.5 73.4% home_-1.5 46.4%
away_+1.5 53.6% home_-0.5 57.1% away_+0.5 42.9%
home_+0.5 67.4% away_-0.5 32.6% home_+1.5 76.5%
away_-1.5 23.5% home_+3.5 89.6% away_-3.5 10.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.5% under_22.5 35.5% over_24.5 52.0%
under_24.5 48.0% over_26.5 39.7% under_26.5 60.3%
over_28.5 28.5% under_28.5 71.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.1% under_10.5 25.9% over_12.5 57.9%
under_12.5 42.1% over_14.5 41.3% under_14.5 58.7%
team_away
over_10.5 55.1% under_10.5 44.9% over_12.5 36.8%
under_12.5 63.2% over_14.5 22.1% under_14.5 77.9%
most
home 61.6% draw 5.9% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.5% away_+4.5 63.5% home_-2.5 49.0%
away_+2.5 51.0% home_-0.5 61.6% away_+0.5 38.4%
home_+0.5 67.6% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+2.5 78.1%
away_-2.5 21.9% home_+4.5 86.3% away_-4.5 13.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.6% under_6.5 23.4% over_7.5 65.3%
under_7.5 34.8% over_8.5 53.0% under_8.5 47.0%
over_9.5 40.9% under_9.5 59.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.8% under_3.5 31.2% over_4.5 52.0%
under_4.5 48.0% over_5.5 36.1% under_5.5 63.9%
team_away
over_3.5 57.2% under_3.5 42.9% over_4.5 39.2%
under_4.5 60.8% over_5.5 24.4% under_5.5 75.6%
most
home 52.7% draw 12.3% away 35.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.8% away_+2.5 71.2% home_-0.5 52.7%
away_+0.5 47.3% home_+0.5 65.0% away_-0.5 35.0%
home_+2.5 84.4% away_-2.5 15.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.4% under_2.5 27.6% over_3.5 51.7%
under_3.5 48.3% over_4.5 32.3% under_4.5 67.7%
over_5.5 17.8% under_5.5 82.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.6% under_1.5 48.4% over_2.5 25.0%
under_2.5 75.0%
team_away
over_1.5 60.1% under_1.5 39.9% over_2.5 33.0%
under_2.5 67.0%
most
home 33.5% draw 21.2% away 45.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.8% away_+1.5 83.2% home_-0.5 33.5%
away_+0.5 66.5% home_+0.5 54.7% away_-0.5 45.3%
home_+1.5 74.3% away_-1.5 25.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 79.4% under_20.5 20.7% over_22.5 67.4%
under_22.5 32.6% over_24.5 53.8% under_24.5 46.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 78.0% under_9.5 22.0% over_11.5 59.8%
under_11.5 40.2% over_13.5 40.5% under_13.5 59.5%
team_away
over_9.5 76.4% under_9.5 23.6% over_11.5 57.7%
under_11.5 42.3% over_13.5 38.4% under_13.5 61.6%
most
home 48.0% draw 7.0% away 45.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.3% away_+3.5 71.7% home_-0.5 48.0%
away_+0.5 52.0% home_+2.5 68.3% away_-2.5 31.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 23.8% no 76.2%
home
yes 15.6% no 84.4%
away
yes 9.6% no 90.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Auxerre predictions · Brest predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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