Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Ein Frankfurt

LLDDL

Sat, 19 Sep 202614:30UK21°C · Cloudy
Freiburg

DLWWW

Model’s top convictions

83%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Ein Frankfurt or draw

64%

Both teams to score

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Ein FrankfurtWin probability
44.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals83.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.20
Ein Frankfurt or draw68.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Both teams to score63.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.57

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Ein Frankfurt at 44% for 19 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 62% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. Recent form reads W0 D3 L3 for Ein Frankfurt against W3 D1 L2 for Freiburg. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Ein Frankfurt, 2 draws and 0 for Freiburg, averaging 4.2 goals a game. For shots markets, Can Uzun is the obvious watch at 1.5 on target per 90 in recent data. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners38.2%@ 2.62
Freiburg win31.5%@ 3.18
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals61.6%@ 1.62
Over 8.5 corners59.3%@ 1.69
Draw or Freiburg55.7%@ 1.80
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.9%@ 9.19
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.24
1-2 correct score7.5%@ 13.28

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Ein Frankfurt

44.3%

Draw

24.2%

Freiburg

31.5%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.583.0%

High probability

Over 2.561.6%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes63.5%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.3%

Good chance

Over 9.548.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.1%

Low chance

Most cornersEin Frankfurt59.1%Freiburg30.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.569.9%

Strong chance

Over 24.558.2%

Good chance

Over 26.546.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.534.5%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Ein Frankfurt14.3 taken14.7 faced
Freiburg11.5 taken13.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Ein Frankfurt (2 games)

8.0 / 9.5

Freiburg (2 games)

12.5 / 5.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.583.0%2.561.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.6%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

Ein FrankfurtLLDDL
FreiburgDLWWW

Last 5 meetings: Ein Frankfurt 3 · 2 draws · Freiburg 0 · 4.2 goals/game.

2026-03-01Ein Frankfurt 2-0 Freiburg
2025-10-19Freiburg 2-2 Ein Frankfurt
2025-05-17Freiburg 1-3 Ein Frankfurt
2025-01-14Ein Frankfurt 4-1 Freiburg
2024-02-18Freiburg 3-3 Ein Frankfurt

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Ein FrankfurtFreiburg
League position#13 of 18#2 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-12-0-0
Current streakL1W2
Record, home vs away0-0-11-0-0
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Can UzunEin Frankfurt · key player
To score28.4%

@ 3.52

1+ on target54.5%

@ 1.83

2+ shots52.5%

@ 1.90

Shots/90 3.26SoT/90 1.46Goals/90 0.62
Igor MatanovicFreiburg · key player
To score26.8%

@ 3.73

1+ on target44.1%

@ 2.27

2+ shots44.2%

@ 2.26

Shots/90 3.22SoT/90 1.25Goals/90 0.67
Jonathan BurkardtEin Frankfurt · in form
To score46.0%

@ 2.17

1+ on target62.5%

@ 1.60

2+ shots65.4%

@ 1.53

Shots/90 2.94SoT/90 1.29Goals/90 0.81
Vincenzo GrifoFreiburg · in form
To score20.2%

@ 4.95

1+ on target44.9%

@ 2.23

2+ shots40.5%

@ 2.47

Shots/90 2.03SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.33
Ayoube Amaimouni-EchghouyabEin Frankfurt · in form
To score9.4%

@ 10.64

1+ on target32.9%

@ 3.04

2+ shots19.2%

@ 5.21

Shots/90 2.19SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.27
Derry ScherhantFreiburg · in form
To score13.6%

@ 7.35

1+ on target33.8%

@ 2.96

2+ shots36.0%

@ 2.78

Shots/90 2.6SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.3

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ein Frankfurt win2.30
Draw4.11
Freiburg win3.11
Both teams to score1.57

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.20
Over 2.5 goals1.62
Over 3.5 goals2.53
Over 4.5 goals4.56
Ein Frankfurt most2.30
Freiburg most3.11

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.62
Over 9.5 corners2.02
Over 10.5 corners2.64
Ein Frankfurt most1.69
Freiburg most3.28

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards2.01
Over 4.5 cards3.28
Over 5.5 cards6.09
Ein Frankfurt most2.51
Freiburg most2.60

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.24
Over 7.5 SoT1.42
Over 8.5 SoT1.69
Over 9.5 SoT2.11
Ein Frankfurt most1.71
Freiburg most3.29

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.43
Over 24.5 shots1.72
Over 26.5 shots2.17
Over 28.5 shots2.90
Ein Frankfurt most1.55
Freiburg most3.33

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.04
Over 22.5 fouls2.70
Over 24.5 fouls3.77
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 69.9% Over 24.5 58.2% Over 26.5 46.0% Over 28.5 34.5%
Most: Ein Frankfurt 64.4% Most: Freiburg 30.0%
Ein Frankfurt Over 13.2 56.0% Freiburg Over 13.2 31.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 80.6% Over 7.5 70.5% Over 8.5 59.1% Over 9.5 47.4%
Most: Ein Frankfurt 58.4% Most: Freiburg 30.4%
Ein Frankfurt Over 4.2 59.8% Freiburg Over 4.2 39.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.8% Over 3.5 49.7% Over 4.5 30.5%
Most: Ein Frankfurt 39.9% Most: Freiburg 38.4%
Ein Frankfurt Over 1.8 55.1% Freiburg Over 1.8 54.1%

Ein Frankfurt: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Can Uzun 3.26 1.46 0.62 54.5% 52.5% 28.4%
Jonathan Burkardt 2.94 1.29 0.81 62.5% 65.4% 46.0%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab 2.19 1.09 0.27 32.9% 19.2% 9.4%
Ritsu Doan 1.69 0.56 0.24 40.0% 45.6% 19.7%
Farès Chaïbi 1.84 0.44 0.1 22.7% 29.2% 5.7%

Freiburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Igor Matanovic 3.22 1.25 0.67 44.1% 44.2% 26.8%
Vincenzo Grifo 2.03 0.87 0.33 44.9% 40.5% 20.2%
Derry Scherhant 2.6 0.85 0.3 33.8% 36.0% 13.6%
Yuito Suzuki 2.1 0.81 0.33 45.5% 46.6% 21.9%
Lucas Höler 1.54 0.73 0.21 39.2% 28.3% 13.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Ein Frankfurt clean sheet 23.1%
Freiburg clean sheet 17.8%
Ein Frankfurt win to nil 18.4%
Freiburg win to nil 13.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 43.5% draw 24.3% away 32.2%
double_chance
1X 67.8% 12 75.6% X2 56.6%
dnb
home 57.4% away 42.6%
btts
yes 63.5% no 36.5%
clean_sheet
home 23.4% away 17.9%
win_to_nil
home 18.6% away 13.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.3% home_by_2 13.2% home_by_3plus 9.9%
away_by_1 17.1% away_by_2 9.5% away_by_3plus 5.7%
correct_score
0-0 4.8% 0-1 5.5% 0-2 4.4%
0-3 2.1% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 6.7% 1-1 10.9% 1-2 7.5%
1-3 3.7% 1-4 1.4% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 6.2% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 6.5%
2-3 3.2% 2-4 1.2% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 3.5% 3-1 5.1% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.9% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.5% 4-1 2.2% 4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.2% under_0.5 4.8% over_1.5 83.0%
under_1.5 17.0% over_2.5 61.6% under_2.5 38.4%
over_3.5 39.5% under_3.5 60.5% over_4.5 21.9%
under_4.5 78.1% over_5.5 10.6% under_5.5 89.4%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 82.1% under_0.5 17.9% over_1.5 51.4%
under_1.5 48.6% over_2.5 25.0% under_2.5 75.0%
team_away
over_0.5 76.6% under_0.5 23.4% over_1.5 42.9%
under_1.5 57.1% over_2.5 18.3% under_2.5 81.7%
most
home 43.5% draw 24.3% away 32.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 9.9% away_+2.5 90.1% home_-1.5 23.2%
away_+1.5 76.8% home_-0.5 43.5% away_+0.5 56.6%
home_+0.5 67.8% away_-0.5 32.2% home_+1.5 84.9%
away_-1.5 15.1% home_+2.5 94.4% away_-2.5 5.7%
total_exact
exact_0 4.8% exact_1 12.2% exact_2 21.4%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 17.6% exact_5 11.3%
exact_6 6.1% exact_7plus 4.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.8% draw 38.7% away 26.5%
total
over_0.5 74.5% under_0.5 25.5% over_1.5 39.7%
under_1.5 60.3% over_2.5 15.9% under_2.5 84.1%
btts
yes 24.3% no 75.7%
total_exact
exact_0 25.5% exact_1 34.8% exact_2 23.8%
exact_3 10.9% exact_4plus 5.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.1% draw 30.3% away 33.6%
total
over_0.5 87.2% under_0.5 12.8% over_1.5 61.0%
under_1.5 39.1% over_2.5 33.9% under_2.5 66.1%
btts
yes 41.3% no 58.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.7% H/D 5.8% H/A 3.4%
D/H 14.0% D/D 11.7% D/A 13.0%
A/H 3.0% A/D 4.9% A/A 18.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.3% under_7.5 26.7% over_8.5 61.7%
under_8.5 38.3% over_9.5 49.6% under_9.5 50.4%
over_10.5 37.9% under_10.5 62.1% over_11.5 27.6%
under_11.5 72.4% over_12.5 19.1% under_12.5 80.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.3% under_3.5 23.7% over_4.5 61.7%
under_4.5 38.3% over_5.5 46.6% under_5.5 53.4%
team_away
over_3.5 57.0% under_3.5 43.0% over_4.5 39.6%
under_4.5 60.4% over_5.5 25.3% under_5.5 74.7%
most
home 59.3% draw 10.3% away 30.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.9% away_+3.5 72.1% home_-1.5 48.3%
away_+1.5 51.7% home_-0.5 59.3% away_+0.5 40.7%
home_+0.5 69.6% away_-0.5 30.5% home_+1.5 78.5%
away_-1.5 21.5% home_+3.5 91.0% away_-3.5 9.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 69.9% under_22.5 30.1% over_24.5 58.2%
under_24.5 41.8% over_26.5 46.0% under_26.5 54.0%
over_28.5 34.5% under_28.5 65.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.6% under_10.5 21.4% over_12.5 63.9%
under_12.5 36.1% over_14.5 48.0% under_14.5 52.0%
team_away
over_10.5 57.0% under_10.5 43.1% over_12.5 39.0%
under_12.5 61.0% over_14.5 24.2% under_14.5 75.9%
most
home 64.4% draw 5.6% away 30.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.3% away_+4.5 59.7% home_-2.5 52.5%
away_+2.5 47.5% home_-0.5 64.4% away_+0.5 35.6%
home_+0.5 70.0% away_-0.5 30.0% home_+2.5 79.7%
away_-2.5 20.3% home_+4.5 87.3% away_-4.5 12.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 80.6% under_6.5 19.4% over_7.5 70.5%
under_7.5 29.5% over_8.5 59.1% under_8.5 40.9%
over_9.5 47.4% under_9.5 52.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.0% under_3.5 25.0% over_4.5 59.8%
under_4.5 40.2% over_5.5 44.4% under_5.5 55.6%
team_away
over_3.5 57.2% under_3.5 42.8% over_4.5 39.5%
under_4.5 60.5% over_5.5 24.9% under_5.5 75.1%
most
home 58.4% draw 11.2% away 30.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 35.0% away_+2.5 65.0% home_-0.5 58.4%
away_+0.5 41.6% home_+0.5 69.6% away_-0.5 30.4%
home_+2.5 86.7% away_-2.5 13.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.8% under_2.5 29.3% over_3.5 49.7%
under_3.5 50.3% over_4.5 30.5% under_4.5 69.5%
over_5.5 16.4% under_5.5 83.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 55.1% under_1.5 44.9% over_2.5 28.2%
under_2.5 71.8%
team_away
over_1.5 54.1% under_1.5 46.0% over_2.5 27.2%
under_2.5 72.8%
most
home 39.9% draw 21.7% away 38.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.2% away_+1.5 78.8% home_-0.5 39.9%
away_+0.5 60.1% home_+0.5 61.6% away_-0.5 38.4%
home_+1.5 79.9% away_-1.5 20.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 49.1% under_20.5 50.9% over_22.5 37.0%
under_22.5 63.0% over_24.5 26.5% under_24.5 73.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.7% under_9.5 42.4% over_11.5 40.5%
under_11.5 59.5% over_13.5 26.1% under_13.5 73.9%
team_away
over_9.5 50.1% under_9.5 49.9% over_11.5 33.0%
under_11.5 67.0% over_13.5 19.9% under_13.5 80.1%
most
home 52.2% draw 6.4% away 41.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 33.3% away_+3.5 66.7% home_-0.5 52.2%
away_+0.5 47.9% home_+2.5 70.6% away_-2.5 29.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.1% no 87.9%
home
yes 8.1% no 91.9%
away
yes 4.4% no 95.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ein Frankfurt predictions · Freiburg predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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