Red Star vs Metz: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

Ligue 2

Red Star

WDDLW

Mon, 14 Sep 202619:45UK

Metz

WDDDW

Model’s top convictions

79%

Red Star or draw

73%

Over 1.5 goals

54%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedTrust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

Red StarWin probability

52.8%

Top 3 convictions

Red Star or draw78.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.27

Over 1.5 goals73.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.36

Over 8.5 corners53.6%Good chancePays @ 1.87

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Red Star at 53% against Metz, Ligue 2, 14 September 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Red Star than the market (36%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Metz carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Red Star, 1 draws and 3 for Metz, averaging 2.4 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Red Star W2 D3 L1, Metz W3 D3 L0. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.6%@ 2.10

Draw or Metz47.2%@ 2.12

Over 9.5 corners42.6%@ 2.35

Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals52.4%@ 1.91

Not both teams to score50.2%@ 1.99

Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.12

1-0 correct score11.8%@ 8.47

2-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.90

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Red Star

52.8%+17.1%

Draw

25.9%-3.4%

Metz

21.3%-13.7%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.6%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes49.8%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.553.6%

Good chance

Over 9.542.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.532.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.0%

Low chance

Most cornersRed Star54.7%Metz34.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.552.7%

Good chance

Over 24.539.9%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.3%

Low chance

Over 28.518.9%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Red Star14.0 taken11.0 faced

Metz14.2 taken14.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.4%2.547.6%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.573.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Form & head-to-head

Red StarWDDLW

MetzWDDDW

Last 5 meetings: Red Star 1 · 1 draws · Metz 3 · 2.4 goals/game.

2025-04-19Metz 2-2 Red Star

2024-10-29Red Star 1-0 Metz

2019-04-26Red Star 1-2 Metz

2018-12-04Metz 2-0 Red Star

2016-04-22Metz 2-0 Red Star

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Red Star

Metz

League position#6 of 18#4 of 18

Record W-D-L2-2-12-3-0

Current streakW1W1

Points per game1.601.80

Record, home vs away0-1-10-2-0

Goals scored per game1.001.60

Goals conceded per game1.200.80

1st half goals per game0.800.80

2nd half goals per game0.200.80

Corners won per game7.25.4

Cards per game3.42.2

Fouls per game14.012.8

Red cards this season11

Shots per game13.414.8

Shots faced per game11.613.2

Shots on target per game4.64.8

Over 2.5 rate

40.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

60.0%80.0%

Clean sheets

40.0%20.0%

Rates this season:Red StarMetz

League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Red Star win2.501.89

Draw3.003.86

Metz win2.554.69

Over 2.5 goals1.982.10

Under 2.5 goals1.831.91

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Red Star win1.89

Draw3.86

Metz win4.70

Both teams to score2.01

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09

Over 1.5 goals1.36

Over 2.5 goals2.10

Over 3.5 goals3.86

Red Star most1.89

Metz most4.70

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.48

Over 8.5 corners1.81

Over 9.5 corners2.33

Over 10.5 corners3.15

Red Star most1.83

Metz most2.93

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.37

Over 3.5 cards1.90

Over 4.5 cards3.01

Over 5.5 cards5.41

Red Star most2.70

Metz most2.40

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.49

Over 7.5 SoT1.84

Over 8.5 SoT2.40

Over 9.5 SoT3.28

Red Star most1.98

Metz most2.74

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.90

Over 24.5 shots2.51

Over 26.5 shots3.53

Over 28.5 shots5.29

Red Star most1.62

Metz most3.14

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15

Over 22.5 fouls1.30

Over 24.5 fouls1.56

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	52.7%	Over 24.5	39.9%	Over 26.5	28.3%	Over 28.5	18.9%
Most: Red Star	61.9%	Most: Metz	31.9%
Red Star Over 13.2	41.2%	Metz Over 13.2	21.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	67.0%	Over 7.5	54.3%	Over 8.5	41.7%	Over 9.5	30.5%
Most: Red Star	50.6%	Most: Metz	36.5%
Red Star Over 4.2	42.7%	Metz Over 4.2	32.7%

Cards

Over 2.5	73.2%	Over 3.5	52.7%	Over 4.5	33.3%
Most: Red Star	37.0%	Most: Metz	41.7%
Red Star Over 1.8	54.9%	Metz Over 1.8	58.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Red Star clean sheet	38.5%
Metz clean sheet	19.5%
Red Star win to nil	30.4%
Metz win to nil	11.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	52.8%	draw	25.9%	away	21.3%

double_chance

1X	78.7%	12	74.1%	X2	47.2%

dnb

home	71.3%	away	28.7%

btts

yes	49.8%	no	50.2%

clean_sheet

home	38.8%	away	19.6%

win_to_nil

home	30.6%	away	11.4%

winning_margin

home_by_1	24.2%	home_by_2	16.4%	home_by_3plus	12.3%
away_by_1	13.8%	away_by_2	5.5%	away_by_3plus	2.0%

correct_score

0-0	8.2%	0-1	6.6%	0-2	3.4%
0-3	1.1%	0-4	0.3%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	11.8%	1-1	12.3%	1-2	5.6%
1-3	1.8%	1-4	0.4%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	10.1%	2-1	9.6%	2-2	4.5%
2-3	1.4%	2-4	0.3%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	5.5%	3-1	5.2%	3-2	2.5%
3-3	0.8%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	2.2%	4-1	2.1%	4-2	1.0%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.7%	5-1	0.7%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.7%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.3%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.8%	under_0.5	8.2%	over_1.5	73.4%
under_1.5	26.6%	over_2.5	47.6%	under_2.5	52.4%
over_3.5	25.9%	under_3.5	74.1%	over_4.5	12.0%
under_4.5	88.1%	over_5.5	4.7%	under_5.5	95.3%

odd_even

odd	48.5%	even	51.5%

team_home

over_0.5	80.4%	under_0.5	19.6%	over_1.5	48.5%
under_1.5	51.5%	over_2.5	22.5%	under_2.5	77.5%

team_away

over_0.5	61.2%	under_0.5	38.8%	over_1.5	24.5%
under_1.5	75.5%	over_2.5	7.1%	under_2.5	92.9%

most

home	52.8%	draw	25.9%	away	21.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	12.3%	away_+2.5	87.7%	home_-1.5	28.7%
away_+1.5	71.3%	home_-0.5	52.8%	away_+0.5	47.2%
home_+0.5	78.7%	away_-0.5	21.3%	home_+1.5	92.5%
away_-1.5	7.5%	home_+2.5	98.0%	away_-2.5	2.0%

total_exact

exact_0	8.2%	exact_1	18.4%	exact_2	25.8%
exact_3	21.7%	exact_4	14.0%	exact_5	7.2%
exact_6	3.1%	exact_7plus	1.7%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	27.8%	draw	42.3%	away	29.9%

total

over_0.5	69.4%	under_0.5	30.6%	over_1.5	33.2%
under_1.5	66.8%	over_2.5	11.7%	under_2.5	88.3%

btts

yes	20.0%	no	80.1%

total_exact

exact_0	30.6%	exact_1	36.2%	exact_2	21.5%
exact_3	8.5%	exact_4plus	3.2%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	22.8%	draw	38.4%	away	38.8%

total

over_0.5	74.4%	under_0.5	25.6%	over_1.5	39.5%
under_1.5	60.5%	over_2.5	15.7%	under_2.5	84.3%

btts

yes	23.5%	no	76.5%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	18.9%	H/D	6.0%	H/A	2.9%
D/H	9.7%	D/D	16.2%	D/A	16.4%
A/H	1.3%	A/D	4.1%	A/A	24.5%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	67.5%	under_7.5	32.5%	over_8.5	55.2%
under_8.5	44.8%	over_9.5	42.9%	under_9.5	57.1%
over_10.5	31.7%	under_10.5	68.3%	over_11.5	22.3%
under_11.5	77.7%	over_12.5	15.0%	under_12.5	85.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	70.4%	under_3.5	29.6%	over_4.5	54.4%
under_4.5	45.6%	over_5.5	39.1%	under_5.5	60.9%

team_away

over_3.5	56.1%	under_3.5	43.9%	over_4.5	38.7%
under_4.5	61.3%	over_5.5	24.5%	under_5.5	75.5%

most

home	54.8%	draw	11.1%	away	34.2%

handicap

home_-3.5	23.2%	away_+3.5	76.8%	home_-1.5	43.4%
away_+1.5	56.6%	home_-0.5	54.8%	away_+0.5	45.2%
home_+0.5	65.8%	away_-0.5	34.2%	home_+1.5	75.7%
away_-1.5	24.3%	home_+3.5	89.7%	away_-3.5	10.3%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	52.7%	under_22.5	47.3%	over_24.5	39.9%
under_24.5	60.2%	over_26.5	28.3%	under_26.5	71.7%
over_28.5	18.9%	under_28.5	81.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	67.1%	under_10.5	32.9%	over_12.5	49.6%
under_12.5	50.4%	over_14.5	33.3%	under_14.5	66.7%

team_away

over_10.5	46.1%	under_10.5	53.9%	over_12.5	28.4%
under_12.5	71.6%	over_14.5	15.6%	under_14.5	84.4%

most

home	61.9%	draw	6.2%	away	31.9%

handicap

home_-4.5	35.7%	away_+4.5	64.3%	home_-2.5	48.7%
away_+2.5	51.3%	home_-0.5	61.9%	away_+0.5	38.1%
home_+0.5	68.1%	away_-0.5	31.9%	home_+2.5	79.0%
away_-2.5	21.0%	home_+4.5	87.3%	away_-4.5	12.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	67.0%	under_6.5	33.0%	over_7.5	54.3%
under_7.5	45.7%	over_8.5	41.7%	under_8.5	58.3%
over_9.5	30.5%	under_9.5	69.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	60.1%	under_3.5	39.9%	over_4.5	42.7%
under_4.5	57.3%	over_5.5	27.9%	under_5.5	72.1%

team_away

over_3.5	50.2%	under_3.5	49.8%	over_4.5	32.8%
under_4.5	67.3%	over_5.5	19.5%	under_5.5	80.5%

most

home	50.6%	draw	12.9%	away	36.5%

handicap

home_-2.5	26.2%	away_+2.5	73.8%	home_-0.5	50.6%
away_+0.5	49.4%	home_+0.5	63.5%	away_-0.5	36.5%
home_+2.5	84.1%	away_-2.5	15.9%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	73.2%	under_2.5	26.8%	over_3.5	52.7%
under_3.5	47.3%	over_4.5	33.3%	under_4.5	66.7%
over_5.5	18.5%	under_5.5	81.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	54.9%	under_1.5	45.1%	over_2.5	28.1%
under_2.5	72.0%

team_away

over_1.5	58.3%	under_1.5	41.7%	over_2.5	31.3%
under_2.5	68.7%

most

home	37.0%	draw	21.3%	away	41.7%

handicap

home_-1.5	19.4%	away_+1.5	80.6%	home_-0.5	37.0%
away_+0.5	63.0%	home_+0.5	58.3%	away_-0.5	41.7%
home_+1.5	77.0%	away_-1.5	23.0%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	86.8%	under_20.5	13.3%	over_22.5	76.8%
under_22.5	23.2%	over_24.5	64.3%	under_24.5	35.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	81.3%	under_9.5	18.7%	over_11.5	63.4%
under_11.5	36.6%	over_13.5	43.3%	under_13.5	56.7%

team_away

over_9.5	85.1%	under_9.5	14.9%	over_11.5	69.2%
under_11.5	30.8%	over_13.5	49.9%	under_13.5	50.1%

most

home	41.9%	draw	7.0%	away	51.0%

handicap

home_-3.5	23.1%	away_+3.5	77.0%	home_-0.5	41.9%
away_+0.5	58.1%	home_+2.5	62.9%	away_-2.5	37.1%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	12.1%	no	87.9%

home

yes	3.7%	no	96.3%

away

yes	8.8%	no	91.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Red Star predictions · Metz predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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