Crawley Town vs Cheltenham prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Crawley Town vs Cheltenham: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

League Two
Crawley Town

LWLDL

Sat, 12 Sep 202612:30UK
Cheltenham

WLDWD

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Crawley Town or draw

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.017 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Crawley TownWin probability
41.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.29
Crawley Town or draw67.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.48
Over 8.5 corners63.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.57

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Crawley Town and Cheltenham on 12 September 2026: Crawley Town nose ahead at 41%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 39%. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 53% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 57%. 3) Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Crawley Town against W2 D2 L2 for Cheltenham. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Crawley Town, 0 draws and 2 for Cheltenham at 1.8 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.8%@ 2.34
Over 11.5 corners33.4%@ 2.99
Cheltenham win32.5%@ 3.08
Medium risk

Draw or Cheltenham58.9%@ 1.70
Both teams to score56.8%@ 1.76
Over 9.5 corners53.1%@ 1.88
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 8.01
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.30
1-0 correct score8.6%@ 11.66

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Crawley Town

41.1%+1.7%

Draw

26.4%-0.2%

Cheltenham

32.5%-1.5%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.7%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.8%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.6%

Strong chance

Over 9.553.1%

Good chance

Over 10.542.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersCrawley Town51.2%Cheltenham38.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.8%

Good chance

Over 24.547.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.5%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Crawley Town13.0 taken14.5 faced
Cheltenham10.8 taken13.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.3%2.552.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.577.3%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

Crawley TownLWLDL
CheltenhamWLDWD

Last 5 meetings: Crawley Town 3 · 0 draws · Cheltenham 2 · 1.8 goals/game.

2026-01-04Cheltenham 3-0 Crawley Town
2025-09-13Crawley Town 2-0 Cheltenham
2021-04-16Crawley Town 1-0 Cheltenham
2020-10-10Cheltenham 2-0 Crawley Town
2019-08-31Crawley Town 1-0 Cheltenham

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Crawley TownCheltenham
League position#21 of 24#8 of 24
Record W-D-L1-1-32-2-1
Current streakL1D1
Points per game0.801.60
Record, home vs away0-0-20-1-1
Goals scored per game1.002.00
Goals conceded per game1.601.80
1st half goals per game0.400.80
2nd half goals per game0.601.20
Corners won per game3.44.2
Cards per game3.01.8
Fouls per game8.612.0
Red cards this season20
Shots per game13.210.0
Shots faced per game14.014.0
Shots on target per game3.24.8
Over 2.5 rate

40.0%100.0%

BTTS rate

60.0%100.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%0.0%

Rates this season:Crawley TownCheltenham

League averages this season: 2.67 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Crawley Town win2.352.43
Draw3.403.79
Cheltenham win2.703.08
Over 2.5 goals1.671.90
Under 2.5 goals2.152.11

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Crawley Town win2.43
Draw3.79
Cheltenham win3.08
Both teams to score1.76

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.90
Over 3.5 goals3.28
Crawley Town most2.43
Cheltenham most3.08

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.84
Over 10.5 corners2.32
Crawley Town most1.95
Cheltenham most2.62

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.94
Over 4.5 cards3.12
Over 5.5 cards5.69
Crawley Town most2.89
Cheltenham most2.27

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.53
Over 7.5 SoT1.91
Over 8.5 SoT2.50
Over 9.5 SoT3.44
Crawley Town most2.04
Cheltenham most2.63

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.13
Over 26.5 shots2.86
Over 28.5 shots4.08
Crawley Town most1.78
Cheltenham most2.66

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.43
Over 22.5 fouls1.82
Over 24.5 fouls2.52
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 59.8% Over 24.5 47.0% Over 26.5 35.0% Over 28.5 24.5%
Most: Crawley Town 56.1% Most: Cheltenham 37.6%
Crawley Town Over 13.2 42.2% Cheltenham Over 13.2 29.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.2% Over 7.5 52.4% Over 8.5 40.0% Over 9.5 29.1%
Most: Crawley Town 49.0% Most: Cheltenham 38.0%
Crawley Town Over 4.2 40.4% Cheltenham Over 4.2 32.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.1% Over 3.5 51.4% Over 4.5 32.1%
Most: Crawley Town 34.6% Most: Cheltenham 44.1%
Crawley Town Over 1.8 52.2% Cheltenham Over 1.8 59.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Crawley Town clean sheet 27.2%
Cheltenham clean sheet 22.6%
Crawley Town win to nil 20.5%
Cheltenham win to nil 15.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.1% draw 26.4% away 32.5%
double_chance
1X 67.5% 12 73.6% X2 58.9%
dnb
home 55.8% away 44.2%
btts
yes 56.8% no 43.2%
clean_sheet
home 27.3% away 22.6%
win_to_nil
home 20.6% away 15.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.8% home_by_2 12.4% home_by_3plus 7.9%
away_by_1 18.1% away_by_2 9.5% away_by_3plus 5.0%
correct_score
0-0 6.8% 0-1 7.4% 0-2 5.2%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 8.6% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 7.7%
1-3 3.4% 1-4 1.1% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.8% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.5% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.4% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.2% under_0.5 6.8% over_1.5 77.3%
under_1.5 22.8% over_2.5 52.7% under_2.5 47.3%
over_3.5 30.5% under_3.5 69.5% over_4.5 15.0%
under_4.5 85.0% over_5.5 6.4% under_5.5 93.6%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 77.4% under_0.5 22.6% over_1.5 43.8%
under_1.5 56.2% over_2.5 18.8% under_2.5 81.2%
team_away
over_0.5 72.7% under_0.5 27.3% over_1.5 37.3%
under_1.5 62.7% over_2.5 14.3% under_2.5 85.7%
most
home 41.1% draw 26.4% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.9% away_+2.5 92.1% home_-1.5 20.3%
away_+1.5 79.7% home_-0.5 41.1% away_+0.5 58.9%
home_+0.5 67.5% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+1.5 85.5%
away_-1.5 14.5% home_+2.5 95.0% away_-2.5 5.0%
total_exact
exact_0 6.8% exact_1 16.0% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.5% exact_5 8.6%
exact_6 4.0% exact_7plus 2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.9% draw 47.4% away 22.7%
total
over_0.5 61.9% under_0.5 38.1% over_1.5 25.1%
under_1.5 74.9% over_2.5 7.4% under_2.5 92.6%
btts
yes 14.5% no 85.5%
total_exact
exact_0 38.1% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 17.7%
exact_3 5.7% exact_4plus 1.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.8% draw 32.4% away 34.8%
total
over_0.5 84.2% under_0.5 15.9% over_1.5 54.9%
under_1.5 45.1% over_2.5 28.1% under_2.5 71.9%
btts
yes 36.2% no 63.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.2% H/D 5.6% H/A 3.1%
D/H 15.5% D/D 15.4% D/A 16.5%
A/H 2.2% A/D 4.2% A/A 16.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.5% under_7.5 23.5% over_8.5 66.0%
under_8.5 34.1% over_9.5 54.5% under_9.5 45.5%
over_10.5 43.0% under_10.5 57.0% over_11.5 32.6%
under_11.5 67.4% over_12.5 23.6% under_12.5 76.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.1% under_3.5 25.9% over_4.5 59.2%
under_4.5 40.8% over_5.5 44.2% under_5.5 55.8%
team_away
over_3.5 65.9% under_3.5 34.1% over_4.5 49.5%
under_4.5 50.6% over_5.5 34.4% under_5.5 65.6%
most
home 51.3% draw 10.5% away 38.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.3% away_+3.5 77.7% home_-1.5 40.7%
away_+1.5 59.3% home_-0.5 51.3% away_+0.5 48.7%
home_+0.5 61.8% away_-0.5 38.2% home_+1.5 71.5%
away_-1.5 28.5% home_+3.5 86.4% away_-3.5 13.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.8% under_22.5 40.2% over_24.5 47.0%
under_24.5 53.0% over_26.5 35.0% under_26.5 65.0%
over_28.5 24.5% under_28.5 75.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.0% under_10.5 32.0% over_12.5 50.6%
under_12.5 49.4% over_14.5 34.3% under_14.5 65.7%
team_away
over_10.5 55.7% under_10.5 44.4% over_12.5 37.5%
under_12.5 62.6% over_14.5 22.7% under_14.5 77.3%
most
home 56.1% draw 6.3% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.1% away_+4.5 69.0% home_-2.5 43.2%
away_+2.5 56.8% home_-0.5 56.1% away_+0.5 43.9%
home_+0.5 62.4% away_-0.5 37.6% home_+2.5 73.9%
away_-2.5 26.1% home_+4.5 83.2% away_-4.5 16.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.2% under_6.5 34.8% over_7.5 52.4%
under_7.5 47.6% over_8.5 40.1% under_8.5 60.0%
over_9.5 29.1% under_9.5 70.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 57.7% under_3.5 42.3% over_4.5 40.4%
under_4.5 59.6% over_5.5 26.1% under_5.5 73.9%
team_away
over_3.5 49.9% under_3.5 50.1% over_4.5 32.7%
under_4.5 67.3% over_5.5 19.6% under_5.5 80.4%
most
home 49.0% draw 13.0% away 38.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.9% away_+2.5 75.1% home_-0.5 49.0%
away_+0.5 51.0% home_+0.5 62.0% away_-0.5 38.0%
home_+2.5 83.1% away_-2.5 16.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.1% under_2.5 27.9% over_3.5 51.4%
under_3.5 48.6% over_4.5 32.1% under_4.5 67.9%
over_5.5 17.6% under_5.5 82.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 52.2% under_1.5 47.8% over_2.5 25.6%
under_2.5 74.4%
team_away
over_1.5 59.1% under_1.5 40.9% over_2.5 32.1%
under_2.5 67.9%
most
home 34.6% draw 21.3% away 44.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.5% away_+1.5 82.5% home_-0.5 34.6%
away_+0.5 65.4% home_+0.5 55.9% away_-0.5 44.1%
home_+1.5 75.3% away_-1.5 24.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 69.9% under_20.5 30.2% over_22.5 54.9%
under_22.5 45.1% over_24.5 39.7% under_24.5 60.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 58.6% under_9.5 41.4% over_11.5 35.9%
under_11.5 64.1% over_13.5 18.4% under_13.5 81.6%
team_away
over_9.5 80.7% under_9.5 19.3% over_11.5 62.2%
under_11.5 37.8% over_13.5 41.8% under_13.5 58.3%
most
home 28.4% draw 7.0% away 64.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 12.4% away_+3.5 87.6% home_-0.5 28.4%
away_+0.5 71.6% home_+2.5 50.6% away_-2.5 49.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 16.4% no 83.6%
home
yes 5.8% no 94.2%
away
yes 11.2% no 88.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Crawley Town predictions · Cheltenham predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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League TwoCrawley TownCheltenhamTrack record