Waregem vs Charleroi prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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Waregem vs Charleroi: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Pro League
Waregem

WDWDW

Sun, 13 Sep 202617:30UK
Charleroi

WWWWL

Model’s top convictions

76%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Waregem or draw

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.030 <= 0.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
WaregemWin probability
41.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals75.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.32
Waregem or draw68.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Over 8.5 corners64.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.56

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Waregem at 42% for 13 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Our number sits above the market's 37% for Waregem. The gap itself is information. 2) No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Waregem, 0 draws and 3 for Charleroi at 3.2 goals per match. The run in: Waregem arrive W4 D2 L0, Charleroi W5 D0 L1. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.030 <= 0).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners43.3%@ 2.31
Over 11.5 corners33.7%@ 2.97
Charleroi win31.2%@ 3.21
Medium risk

Draw or Charleroi58.1%@ 1.72
Both teams to score55.0%@ 1.82
Over 9.5 corners53.7%@ 1.86
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.8%@ 7.82
1-0 correct score9.3%@ 10.76
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.24

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Waregem

41.9%+4.6%

Draw

26.9%-0.1%

Charleroi

31.2%-4.5%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.030 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.550.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes55.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.564.3%

Strong chance

Over 9.553.7%

Good chance

Over 10.543.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersWaregem48.9%Charleroi40.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.568.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.556.6%

Good chance

Over 26.544.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.533.7%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Waregem14.0 taken10.7 faced
Charleroi18.3 taken10.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.6%2.550.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.575.6%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.030 <= 0.

Form & head-to-head

WaregemWDWDW
CharleroiWWWWL

Last 5 meetings: Waregem 2 · 0 draws · Charleroi 3 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-03-22Waregem 1-0 Charleroi
2025-09-20Charleroi 1-2 Waregem
2023-04-08Charleroi 3-2 Waregem
2022-08-21Waregem 1-3 Charleroi
2022-04-10Charleroi 3-0 Waregem

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

WaregemCharleroi
League position#5 of 18#4 of 18
Record W-D-L3-2-04-0-1
Current streakW1L1
Points per game2.202.40
Record, home vs away2-0-02-0-0
Goals scored per game2.002.20
Goals conceded per game0.601.00
1st half goals per game0.601.00
2nd half goals per game1.401.20
Corners won per game4.86.2
Cards per game1.20.6
Fouls per game11.88.8
Red cards this season00
Shots per game13.019.4
Shots faced per game10.811.0
Shots on target per game5.25.8
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%60.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%60.0%

Clean sheets

60.0%40.0%

Rates this season:WaregemCharleroi

League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Waregem win2.452.39
Draw3.303.72
Charleroi win2.553.21
Over 2.5 goals1.731.98
Under 2.5 goals2.082.02

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Waregem win2.39
Draw3.72
Charleroi win3.20
Both teams to score1.82

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.32
Over 2.5 goals1.98
Over 3.5 goals3.52
Waregem most2.39
Charleroi most3.20

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.28
Over 8.5 corners1.49
Over 9.5 corners1.80
Over 10.5 corners2.29
Waregem most2.04
Charleroi most2.48

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.50
Over 3.5 cards2.20
Over 4.5 cards3.71
Over 5.5 cards7.11
Waregem most4.22
Charleroi most1.80

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37
Over 7.5 SoT1.64
Over 8.5 SoT2.06
Over 9.5 SoT2.71
Waregem most2.02
Charleroi most2.62

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.47
Over 24.5 shots1.77
Over 26.5 shots2.23
Over 28.5 shots2.97
Waregem most1.73
Charleroi most2.75

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.58
Over 22.5 fouls2.04
Over 24.5 fouls2.85
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 68.1% Over 24.5 56.6% Over 26.5 44.8% Over 28.5 33.7%
Most: Waregem 57.8% Most: Charleroi 36.4%
Waregem Over 13.2 50.4% Charleroi Over 13.2 35.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.7% Over 7.5 60.9% Over 8.5 48.6% Over 9.5 36.9%
Most: Waregem 49.4% Most: Charleroi 38.1%
Waregem Over 4.2 46.6% Charleroi Over 4.2 38.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 66.8% Over 3.5 45.4% Over 4.5 26.9%
Most: Waregem 23.7% Most: Charleroi 55.7%
Waregem Over 1.8 38.2% Charleroi Over 1.8 62.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Waregem clean sheet 29.1%
Charleroi clean sheet 23.1%
Waregem win to nil 21.7%
Charleroi win to nil 15.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.9% draw 26.9% away 31.2%
double_chance
1X 68.8% 12 73.1% X2 58.1%
dnb
home 57.3% away 42.7%
btts
yes 55.0% no 45.0%
clean_sheet
home 29.2% away 23.2%
win_to_nil
home 21.9% away 15.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.3% home_by_2 12.7% home_by_3plus 7.9%
away_by_1 17.8% away_by_2 9.0% away_by_3plus 4.4%
correct_score
0-0 7.4% 0-1 7.7% 0-2 5.1%
0-3 2.1% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.3% 1-1 12.8% 1-2 7.5%
1-3 3.1% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.2% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.2% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.5% 3-1 4.3% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.6% under_0.5 7.4% over_1.5 75.6%
under_1.5 24.4% over_2.5 50.4% under_2.5 49.6%
over_3.5 28.4% under_3.5 71.6% over_4.5 13.6%
under_4.5 86.4% over_5.5 5.6% under_5.5 94.4%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 76.8% under_0.5 23.2% over_1.5 43.0%
under_1.5 57.1% over_2.5 18.2% under_2.5 81.8%
team_away
over_0.5 70.8% under_0.5 29.2% over_1.5 34.8%
under_1.5 65.2% over_2.5 12.7% under_2.5 87.3%
most
home 41.9% draw 26.9% away 31.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.9% away_+2.5 92.1% home_-1.5 20.6%
away_+1.5 79.4% home_-0.5 41.9% away_+0.5 58.1%
home_+0.5 68.8% away_-0.5 31.2% home_+1.5 86.6%
away_-1.5 13.4% home_+2.5 95.6% away_-2.5 4.4%
total_exact
exact_0 7.4% exact_1 17.0% exact_2 25.2%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 14.8% exact_5 8.0%
exact_6 3.6% exact_7plus 2.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.3% draw 41.3% away 28.4%
total
over_0.5 70.9% under_0.5 29.1% over_1.5 35.0%
under_1.5 65.0% over_2.5 12.8% under_2.5 87.2%
btts
yes 21.2% no 78.8%
total_exact
exact_0 29.1% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 22.2%
exact_3 9.1% exact_4plus 3.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.7% draw 36.9% away 24.4%
total
over_0.5 76.8% under_0.5 23.2% over_1.5 42.9%
under_1.5 57.1% over_2.5 18.1% under_2.5 81.9%
btts
yes 26.1% no 73.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 24.5% H/D 4.4% H/A 1.5%
D/H 16.0% D/D 15.2% D/A 10.1%
A/H 3.0% A/D 6.0% A/A 19.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.9% under_7.5 22.1% over_8.5 67.2%
under_8.5 32.8% over_9.5 55.5% under_9.5 44.6%
over_10.5 43.6% under_10.5 56.4% over_11.5 32.7%
under_11.5 67.3% over_12.5 23.4% under_12.5 76.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.8% under_3.5 26.2% over_4.5 58.4%
under_4.5 41.6% over_5.5 43.0% under_5.5 57.0%
team_away
over_3.5 68.4% under_3.5 31.6% over_4.5 51.9%
under_4.5 48.1% over_5.5 36.4% under_5.5 63.6%
most
home 49.0% draw 10.6% away 40.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.5% away_+3.5 79.5% home_-1.5 38.5%
away_+1.5 61.5% home_-0.5 49.0% away_+0.5 51.0%
home_+0.5 59.7% away_-0.5 40.3% home_+1.5 69.6%
away_-1.5 30.4% home_+3.5 85.2% away_-3.5 14.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 68.1% under_22.5 31.9% over_24.5 56.6%
under_24.5 43.4% over_26.5 44.8% under_26.5 55.2%
over_28.5 33.7% under_28.5 66.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.8% under_10.5 26.2% over_12.5 58.4%
under_12.5 41.6% over_14.5 42.7% under_14.5 57.3%
team_away
over_10.5 60.3% under_10.5 39.7% over_12.5 43.0%
under_12.5 57.0% over_14.5 28.0% under_14.5 72.0%
most
home 57.8% draw 5.8% away 36.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.3% away_+4.5 65.7% home_-2.5 45.9%
away_+2.5 54.1% home_-0.5 57.8% away_+0.5 42.2%
home_+0.5 63.6% away_-0.5 36.4% home_+2.5 74.2%
away_-2.5 25.9% home_+4.5 82.8% away_-4.5 17.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.7% under_6.5 27.3% over_7.5 60.9%
under_7.5 39.1% over_8.5 48.6% under_8.5 51.4%
over_9.5 36.9% under_9.5 63.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.7% under_3.5 36.3% over_4.5 46.6%
under_4.5 53.4% over_5.5 31.4% under_5.5 68.6%
team_away
over_3.5 56.0% under_3.5 44.0% over_4.5 38.5%
under_4.5 61.6% over_5.5 24.2% under_5.5 75.8%
most
home 49.4% draw 12.5% away 38.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.1% away_+2.5 73.9% home_-0.5 49.4%
away_+0.5 50.6% home_+0.5 61.9% away_-0.5 38.1%
home_+2.5 82.4% away_-2.5 17.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 66.8% under_2.5 33.2% over_3.5 45.4%
under_3.5 54.6% over_4.5 26.9% under_4.5 73.1%
over_5.5 14.1% under_5.5 85.9%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 38.2% under_1.5 61.8% over_2.5 15.1%
under_2.5 84.9%
team_away
over_1.5 62.4% under_1.5 37.6% over_2.5 35.9%
under_2.5 64.1%
most
home 23.7% draw 20.6% away 55.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 10.1% away_+1.5 89.9% home_-0.5 23.7%
away_+0.5 76.3% home_+0.5 44.3% away_-0.5 55.7%
home_+1.5 66.0% away_-1.5 34.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 63.4% under_20.5 36.6% over_22.5 49.0%
under_22.5 51.0% over_24.5 35.1% under_24.5 64.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 58.0% under_9.5 42.1% over_11.5 36.9%
under_11.5 63.1% over_13.5 20.3% under_13.5 79.7%
team_away
over_9.5 72.7% under_9.5 27.3% over_11.5 53.4%
under_11.5 46.6% over_13.5 34.5% under_13.5 65.5%
most
home 35.0% draw 7.0% away 58.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.4% away_+3.5 82.6% home_-0.5 35.0%
away_+0.5 65.0% home_+2.5 56.7% away_-2.5 43.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.5% no 80.5%
home
yes 5.1% no 94.9%
away
yes 15.1% no 84.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Waregem predictions · Charleroi predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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