Shots
| Over 22.5 |
69.3% |
Over 24.5 |
57.8% |
Over 26.5 |
46.0% |
Over 28.5 |
34.7% |
| Most: Westerlo |
65.5% |
Most: Standard |
29.2% |
| Westerlo Over 13.2 |
56.7% |
Standard Over 13.2 |
30.3% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
75.4% |
Over 7.5 |
64.0% |
Over 8.5 |
52.0% |
Over 9.5 |
40.3% |
| Most: Westerlo |
51.9% |
Most: Standard |
36.0% |
| Westerlo Over 4.2 |
50.6% |
Standard Over 4.2 |
39.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
71.6% |
Over 3.5 |
51.1% |
Over 4.5 |
32.0% |
| Most: Westerlo |
33.1% |
Most: Standard |
45.9% |
| Westerlo Over 1.8 |
50.5% |
Standard Over 1.8 |
59.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Westerlo clean sheet |
26.9% |
| Standard clean sheet |
25.6% |
| Westerlo win to nil |
19.4% |
| Standard win to nil |
18.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
37.6% |
draw |
27.1% |
away |
35.3% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
64.7% |
12 |
72.9% |
X2 |
62.4% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
20.0% |
home_by_2 |
11.2% |
home_by_3plus |
6.4% |
| away_by_1 |
19.3% |
away_by_2 |
10.4% |
away_by_3plus |
5.6% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
7.5% |
0-1 |
8.4% |
0-2 |
6.0% |
| 0-3 |
2.6% |
0-4 |
0.9% |
0-5 |
0.2% |
| 1-0 |
8.8% |
1-1 |
12.9% |
1-2 |
8.1% |
| 1-3 |
3.6% |
1-4 |
1.2% |
1-5 |
0.3% |
| 2-0 |
6.4% |
2-1 |
8.4% |
2-2 |
5.5% |
| 2-3 |
2.4% |
2-4 |
0.8% |
2-5 |
0.2% |
| 3-0 |
2.9% |
3-1 |
3.8% |
3-2 |
2.5% |
| 3-3 |
1.1% |
3-4 |
0.4% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
1.0% |
4-1 |
1.3% |
4-2 |
0.9% |
| 4-3 |
0.4% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.3% |
5-1 |
0.4% |
5-2 |
0.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
12.9% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
92.5% |
under_0.5 |
7.5% |
over_1.5 |
75.3% |
| under_1.5 |
24.7% |
over_2.5 |
50.1% |
under_2.5 |
49.9% |
| over_3.5 |
28.1% |
under_3.5 |
71.9% |
over_4.5 |
13.4% |
| under_4.5 |
86.6% |
over_5.5 |
5.5% |
under_5.5 |
94.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
74.3% |
under_0.5 |
25.7% |
over_1.5 |
39.5% |
| under_1.5 |
60.5% |
over_2.5 |
15.8% |
under_2.5 |
84.2% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
73.1% |
under_0.5 |
26.9% |
over_1.5 |
37.8% |
| under_1.5 |
62.2% |
over_2.5 |
14.6% |
under_2.5 |
85.4% |
|
most
| home |
37.6% |
draw |
27.1% |
away |
35.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
6.4% |
away_+2.5 |
93.6% |
home_-1.5 |
17.5% |
| away_+1.5 |
82.5% |
home_-0.5 |
37.6% |
away_+0.5 |
62.4% |
| home_+0.5 |
64.7% |
away_-0.5 |
35.3% |
home_+1.5 |
84.0% |
| away_-1.5 |
16.0% |
home_+2.5 |
94.4% |
away_-2.5 |
5.6% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
7.5% |
exact_1 |
17.2% |
exact_2 |
25.3% |
| exact_3 |
22.0% |
exact_4 |
14.7% |
exact_5 |
7.9% |
| exact_6 |
3.5% |
exact_7plus |
2.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
24.7% |
draw |
41.4% |
away |
33.9% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
70.4% |
under_0.5 |
29.6% |
over_1.5 |
34.4% |
| under_1.5 |
65.6% |
over_2.5 |
12.4% |
under_2.5 |
87.6% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
29.6% |
exact_1 |
36.0% |
exact_2 |
21.9% |
| exact_3 |
8.9% |
exact_4plus |
3.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
33.0% |
draw |
37.6% |
away |
29.4% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
76.4% |
under_0.5 |
23.6% |
over_1.5 |
42.4% |
| under_1.5 |
57.6% |
over_2.5 |
17.8% |
under_2.5 |
82.3% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
18.7% |
H/D |
4.3% |
H/A |
1.7% |
| D/H |
13.7% |
D/D |
15.6% |
D/A |
12.2% |
| A/H |
2.7% |
A/D |
6.1% |
A/A |
25.1% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
76.9% |
under_7.5 |
23.1% |
over_8.5 |
66.0% |
| under_8.5 |
34.0% |
over_9.5 |
54.1% |
under_9.5 |
45.9% |
| over_10.5 |
42.3% |
under_10.5 |
57.7% |
over_11.5 |
31.5% |
| under_11.5 |
68.5% |
over_12.5 |
22.3% |
under_12.5 |
77.7% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
78.2% |
under_3.5 |
21.8% |
over_4.5 |
64.1% |
| under_4.5 |
35.9% |
over_5.5 |
49.0% |
under_5.5 |
51.0% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
60.8% |
under_3.5 |
39.2% |
over_4.5 |
43.4% |
| under_4.5 |
56.6% |
over_5.5 |
28.5% |
under_5.5 |
71.5% |
|
most
| home |
58.6% |
draw |
10.2% |
away |
31.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
27.7% |
away_+3.5 |
72.3% |
home_-1.5 |
47.8% |
| away_+1.5 |
52.2% |
home_-0.5 |
58.6% |
away_+0.5 |
41.4% |
| home_+0.5 |
68.7% |
away_-0.5 |
31.3% |
home_+1.5 |
77.7% |
| away_-1.5 |
22.3% |
home_+3.5 |
90.3% |
away_-3.5 |
9.7% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
69.3% |
under_22.5 |
30.7% |
over_24.5 |
57.8% |
| under_24.5 |
42.2% |
over_26.5 |
46.0% |
under_26.5 |
54.0% |
| over_28.5 |
34.7% |
under_28.5 |
65.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
78.5% |
under_10.5 |
21.5% |
over_12.5 |
64.4% |
| under_12.5 |
35.6% |
over_14.5 |
49.0% |
under_14.5 |
51.0% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
55.4% |
under_10.5 |
44.6% |
over_12.5 |
38.0% |
| under_12.5 |
62.0% |
over_14.5 |
23.7% |
under_14.5 |
76.3% |
|
most
| home |
65.5% |
draw |
5.4% |
away |
29.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
42.0% |
away_+4.5 |
58.0% |
home_-2.5 |
53.9% |
| away_+2.5 |
46.1% |
home_-0.5 |
65.5% |
away_+0.5 |
34.5% |
| home_+0.5 |
70.9% |
away_-0.5 |
29.2% |
home_+2.5 |
80.2% |
| away_-2.5 |
19.8% |
home_+4.5 |
87.5% |
away_-4.5 |
12.5% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
75.4% |
under_6.5 |
24.6% |
over_7.5 |
64.0% |
| under_7.5 |
36.0% |
over_8.5 |
52.0% |
under_8.5 |
48.0% |
| over_9.5 |
40.3% |
under_9.5 |
59.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
67.2% |
under_3.5 |
32.8% |
over_4.5 |
50.6% |
| under_4.5 |
49.4% |
over_5.5 |
35.3% |
under_5.5 |
64.7% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
56.6% |
under_3.5 |
43.4% |
over_4.5 |
39.1% |
| under_4.5 |
60.9% |
over_5.5 |
24.7% |
under_5.5 |
75.3% |
|
most
| home |
51.9% |
draw |
12.1% |
away |
36.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
28.6% |
away_+2.5 |
71.4% |
home_-0.5 |
51.9% |
| away_+0.5 |
48.1% |
home_+0.5 |
64.0% |
away_-0.5 |
36.0% |
| home_+2.5 |
83.5% |
away_-2.5 |
16.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
71.6% |
under_2.5 |
28.4% |
over_3.5 |
51.1% |
| under_3.5 |
48.9% |
over_4.5 |
32.0% |
under_4.5 |
68.0% |
| over_5.5 |
17.8% |
under_5.5 |
82.2% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
50.5% |
under_1.5 |
49.5% |
over_2.5 |
24.5% |
| under_2.5 |
75.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
59.8% |
under_1.5 |
40.2% |
over_2.5 |
33.2% |
| under_2.5 |
66.8% |
most
| home |
33.1% |
draw |
21.1% |
away |
45.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
16.6% |
away_+1.5 |
83.4% |
home_-0.5 |
33.1% |
| away_+0.5 |
66.9% |
home_+0.5 |
54.1% |
away_-0.5 |
45.9% |
| home_+1.5 |
73.7% |
away_-1.5 |
26.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
62.8% |
under_20.5 |
37.2% |
over_22.5 |
48.3% |
| under_22.5 |
51.7% |
over_24.5 |
34.5% |
under_24.5 |
65.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
63.6% |
under_9.5 |
36.4% |
over_11.5 |
42.8% |
| under_11.5 |
57.2% |
over_13.5 |
25.0% |
under_13.5 |
75.0% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
67.2% |
under_9.5 |
32.8% |
over_11.5 |
46.8% |
| under_11.5 |
53.2% |
over_13.5 |
28.5% |
under_13.5 |
71.5% |
|
most
| home |
43.5% |
draw |
7.3% |
away |
49.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
23.7% |
away_+3.5 |
76.3% |
home_-0.5 |
43.5% |
| away_+0.5 |
56.5% |
home_+2.5 |
65.2% |
away_-2.5 |
34.8% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Pro League
Westerlo
Standard