Lorient vs Toulouse prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Lorient vs Toulouse: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Lorient

WLDLW

Sat, 12 Sep 202619:45UK20°C · Clear
Toulouse

WDLDL

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Lorient or draw

58%

Draw or Toulouse

Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LorientWin probability
41.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals72.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Lorient or draw69.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Draw or Toulouse58.4%Good chancePays @ 1.71

Model read

▾

Lorient versus Toulouse on 12 September 2026 tilts towards Lorient in our numbers (42%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Lorient than the market (36%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Lorient, 2 draws and 3 for Toulouse at 1.8 goals per match. The run in: Lorient arrive W2 D2 L2, Toulouse W2 D2 L2. For shots markets, Aiyegun Tosin is the obvious watch at 1.0 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals46.9%@ 2.13
Over 9.5 corners45.6%@ 2.19
Over 10.5 corners35.4%@ 2.82
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners56.5%@ 1.77
Under 2.5 goals53.1%@ 1.88
Both teams to score52.2%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.56
1-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.94
2-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.60

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lorient

41.6%+5.3%

Draw

27.6%-1.5%

Toulouse

30.8%-3.8%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.546.9%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes52.2%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.5%

Good chance

Over 9.545.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.5%

Low chance

Most cornersLorient52.9%Toulouse35.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.5%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Lorient10.7 taken13.5 faced
Toulouse13.2 taken12.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Lorient (3 games)

3.7 / 7.3

Toulouse (3 games)

10.0 / 5.7

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.9%2.546.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Form & head-to-head

LorientWLDLW
ToulouseWDLDL

Last 5 meetings: Lorient 0 · 2 draws · Toulouse 3 · 1.8 goals/game.

2026-03-21Toulouse 1-0 Lorient
2025-11-09Lorient 1-1 Toulouse
2024-04-28Lorient 1-2 Toulouse
2023-12-03Toulouse 1-1 Lorient
2023-04-23Lorient 0-1 Toulouse

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LorientToulouse
League position#8 of 18#17 of 18
Record W-D-L1-1-10-1-2
Current streakW1L1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Aiyegun TosinLorient · key player
To score16.0%

@ 6.25

1+ on target33.8%

@ 2.96

2+ shots29.0%

@ 3.45

Shots/90 2.52SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.41
Santiago HidalgoToulouse · key player
To score12.1%

@ 8.26

1+ on target42.1%

@ 2.38

2+ shots38.2%

@ 2.62

Shots/90 2.57SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.25
Jean-Victor MakengoLorient · in form
To score13.4%

@ 7.46

1+ on target37.7%

@ 2.65

2+ shots37.1%

@ 2.70

Shots/90 1.89SoT/90 0.69Goals/90 0.21
Jacen Russell-RoweToulouse · in form
To score11.9%

@ 8.40

1+ on target35.4%

@ 2.82

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 2.29SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.29
Panos KatserisLorient · in form
To score5.2%

@ 19.23

1+ on target23.0%

@ 4.35

2+ shots6.7%

@ 14.93

Shots/90 0.87SoT/90 0.54Goals/90 0.11
Yann GbohoToulouse · in form
To score19.3%

@ 5.18

1+ on target48.3%

@ 2.07

2+ shots50.7%

@ 1.97

Shots/90 1.91SoT/90 0.74Goals/90 0.24

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Lorient win2.632.40
Draw3.253.63
Toulouse win2.753.24
Over 2.5 goals1.982.13
Under 2.5 goals1.881.88

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lorient win2.47
Draw3.60
Toulouse win3.15
Both teams to score1.92

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.13
Over 3.5 goals3.95
Lorient most2.47
Toulouse most3.15

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.42
Over 8.5 corners1.71
Over 9.5 corners2.16
Over 10.5 corners2.88
Lorient most1.88
Toulouse most2.78

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.42
Over 3.5 cards2.02
Over 4.5 cards3.30
Over 5.5 cards6.14
Lorient most3.62
Toulouse most1.94

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.08
Over 9.5 SoT2.76
Lorient most1.89
Toulouse most2.89

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots2.01
Over 26.5 shots2.67
Over 28.5 shots3.77
Lorient most1.60
Toulouse most3.18

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.38
Over 22.5 fouls1.70
Over 24.5 fouls2.25
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 62.4% Over 24.5 49.7% Over 26.5 37.4% Over 28.5 26.5%
Most: Lorient 62.7% Most: Toulouse 31.4%
Lorient Over 13.2 48.6% Toulouse Over 13.2 26.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.9% Over 7.5 60.8% Over 8.5 48.1% Over 9.5 36.2%
Most: Lorient 52.9% Most: Toulouse 34.6%
Lorient Over 4.2 48.8% Toulouse Over 4.2 35.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.6% Over 3.5 49.5% Over 4.5 30.3%
Most: Lorient 27.6% Most: Toulouse 51.5%
Lorient Over 1.8 45.0% Toulouse Over 1.8 62.7%

Lorient: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Aiyegun Tosin 2.52 0.97 0.41 33.8% 29.0% 16.0%
Jean-Victor Makengo 1.89 0.69 0.21 37.7% 37.1% 13.4%
Panos Katseris 0.87 0.54 0.11 23.0% 6.7% 5.2%
Noah Cadiou 1.02 0.38 0.13 25.0% 18.2% 9.4%
Théo Le Bris 0.82 0.35 0.09 23.0% 12.6% 6.5%

Toulouse: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Santiago Hidalgo 2.57 1.06 0.25 42.1% 38.2% 12.1%
Jacen Russell-Rowe 2.29 1 0.29 35.4% 26.4% 11.9%
Yann Gboho 1.91 0.74 0.24 48.3% 50.7% 19.3%
Casper Tengstedt 2.47 0.58 0.32 32.2% 49.3% 19.3%
Cristian Cásseres Jr. 0.77 0.21 0.05 18.0% 16.5% 4.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lorient clean sheet 30.7%
Toulouse clean sheet 25.4%
Lorient win to nil 22.2%
Toulouse win to nil 17.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 40.5% draw 27.8% away 31.7%
double_chance
1X 68.3% 12 72.3% X2 59.5%
dnb
home 56.1% away 43.9%
btts
yes 52.2% no 47.8%
clean_sheet
home 30.8% away 25.5%
win_to_nil
home 22.3% away 17.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.3% home_by_2 12.2% home_by_3plus 7.0%
away_by_1 18.3% away_by_2 9.1% away_by_3plus 4.3%
correct_score
0-0 8.4% 0-1 8.6% 0-2 5.5%
0-3 2.2% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.1% 1-1 13.2% 1-2 7.4%
1-3 2.9% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.3% 2-1 8.6% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.4% 3-1 3.9% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.6% under_0.5 8.4% over_1.5 72.9%
under_1.5 27.1% over_2.5 46.9% under_2.5 53.1%
over_3.5 25.3% under_3.5 74.7% over_4.5 11.6%
under_4.5 88.4% over_5.5 4.5% under_5.5 95.5%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 74.5% under_0.5 25.5% over_1.5 39.7%
under_1.5 60.3% over_2.5 15.9% under_2.5 84.1%
team_away
over_0.5 69.3% under_0.5 30.8% over_1.5 33.1%
under_1.5 67.0% over_2.5 11.7% under_2.5 88.3%
most
home 40.5% draw 27.8% away 31.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.0% away_+2.5 93.0% home_-1.5 19.2%
away_+1.5 80.8% home_-0.5 40.5% away_+0.5 59.5%
home_+0.5 68.3% away_-0.5 31.7% home_+1.5 86.6%
away_-1.5 13.4% home_+2.5 95.7% away_-2.5 4.3%
total_exact
exact_0 8.4% exact_1 18.7% exact_2 26.0%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.8% exact_5 7.0%
exact_6 3.0% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.3% draw 46.4% away 25.4%
total
over_0.5 63.5% under_0.5 36.5% over_1.5 26.7%
under_1.5 73.3% over_2.5 8.2% under_2.5 91.8%
btts
yes 15.6% no 84.4%
total_exact
exact_0 36.5% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.5%
exact_3 6.2% exact_4plus 2.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.1% draw 35.5% away 24.4%
total
over_0.5 78.7% under_0.5 21.3% over_1.5 45.8%
under_1.5 54.2% over_2.5 20.3% under_2.5 79.7%
btts
yes 28.2% no 71.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.6% H/D 4.2% H/A 1.5%
D/H 18.6% D/D 16.5% D/A 11.3%
A/H 3.1% A/D 5.6% A/A 16.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.5% under_7.5 29.5% over_8.5 58.6%
under_8.5 41.4% over_9.5 46.3% under_9.5 53.8%
over_10.5 34.7% under_10.5 65.3% over_11.5 24.8%
under_11.5 75.2% over_12.5 16.9% under_12.5 83.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.2% under_3.5 28.8% over_4.5 55.4%
under_4.5 44.6% over_5.5 40.0% under_5.5 60.0%
team_away
over_3.5 59.7% under_3.5 40.3% over_4.5 42.4%
under_4.5 57.6% over_5.5 27.7% under_5.5 72.3%
most
home 53.1% draw 10.9% away 36.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.5% away_+3.5 77.5% home_-1.5 41.9%
away_+1.5 58.1% home_-0.5 53.1% away_+0.5 46.9%
home_+0.5 64.0% away_-0.5 36.0% home_+1.5 73.9%
away_-1.5 26.1% home_+3.5 88.4% away_-3.5 11.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.4% under_22.5 37.6% over_24.5 49.7%
under_24.5 50.3% over_26.5 37.4% under_26.5 62.6%
over_28.5 26.5% under_28.5 73.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.4% under_10.5 26.6% over_12.5 57.0%
under_12.5 43.0% over_14.5 40.5% under_14.5 59.5%
team_away
over_10.5 52.6% under_10.5 47.4% over_12.5 34.4%
under_12.5 65.6% over_14.5 20.2% under_14.5 79.9%
most
home 62.6% draw 5.9% away 31.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.4% away_+4.5 62.6% home_-2.5 50.0%
away_+2.5 50.0% home_-0.5 62.6% away_+0.5 37.4%
home_+0.5 68.6% away_-0.5 31.4% home_+2.5 79.0%
away_-2.5 21.0% home_+4.5 87.1% away_-4.5 12.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.9% under_6.5 27.1% over_7.5 60.8%
under_7.5 39.2% over_8.5 48.1% under_8.5 51.9%
over_9.5 36.2% under_9.5 63.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.1% under_3.5 33.9% over_4.5 48.8%
under_4.5 51.2% over_5.5 33.1% under_5.5 66.9%
team_away
over_3.5 53.5% under_3.5 46.5% over_4.5 35.5%
under_4.5 64.5% over_5.5 21.4% under_5.5 78.6%
most
home 52.9% draw 12.6% away 34.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.4% away_+2.5 71.6% home_-0.5 52.9%
away_+0.5 47.1% home_+0.5 65.4% away_-0.5 34.6%
home_+2.5 85.2% away_-2.5 14.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.6% under_2.5 29.4% over_3.5 49.5%
under_3.5 50.5% over_4.5 30.3% under_4.5 69.7%
over_5.5 16.3% under_5.5 83.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 45.0% under_1.5 55.0% over_2.5 19.7%
under_2.5 80.3%
team_away
over_1.5 62.7% under_1.5 37.3% over_2.5 35.7%
under_2.5 64.3%
most
home 27.6% draw 20.9% away 51.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 12.7% away_+1.5 87.4% home_-0.5 27.6%
away_+0.5 72.4% home_+0.5 48.5% away_-0.5 51.5%
home_+1.5 69.3% away_-1.5 30.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 72.4% under_20.5 27.6% over_22.5 58.8%
under_22.5 41.2% over_24.5 44.5% under_24.5 55.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 58.3% under_9.5 41.7% over_11.5 36.9%
under_11.5 63.1% over_13.5 20.0% under_13.5 80.0%
team_away
over_9.5 82.5% under_9.5 17.5% over_11.5 66.1%
under_11.5 33.9% over_13.5 47.3% under_13.5 52.7%
most
home 26.7% draw 6.3% away 67.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 12.2% away_+3.5 87.8% home_-0.5 26.7%
away_+0.5 73.3% home_+2.5 47.0% away_-2.5 53.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.0% no 85.0%
home
yes 2.6% no 97.4%
away
yes 12.8% no 87.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lorient predictions · Toulouse predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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