Valencia vs Barcelona prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

By /

Valencia vs Barcelona: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

La Liga
Valencia

WWDLL

Full time0-5Sun, 6 Sep 202615:15UK
Barcelona

WLWWW

Model’s top convictions

80%

Over 1.5 goals

79%

Draw or Barcelona

60%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Valencia 0-5 Barcelona
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Barcelona at 55.2%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 56.1% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 79.6% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 66.2% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 56.3% and it missed. We called Yes at 69.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 84.0% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 50.5% and it missed (5 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 55.6% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.0% and it missed (28 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 57.7% and it landed (12 shots on target). We called No at 85.9% and it landed.

Match data Valencia Barcelona
Goals, 1st half 0 2
Goals, 2nd half 0 3
Shots 3 25
Shots, 1st half 2 7
Shots, 2nd half 1 18
Shots on target 2 10
Corners 1 4
Yellow cards 1 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 7 6
Expected goals (xG) 0.52 4.77

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BarcelonaWin probability
55.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals79.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.26
Draw or Barcelona78.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Over 8.5 corners60.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.66

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Barcelona at 55% against Valencia, La Liga, 6 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 56% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. 2) The recent series reads 1 wins for Valencia, 0 draws and 4 for Barcelona over 5 games, 5.4 goals on average. 3) For shots markets, Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld is the obvious watch at 0.9 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Valencia arrive W2 D2 L2, Barcelona W4 D0 L2. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Valencia or draw44.8%@ 2.23
Over 10.5 corners39.0%@ 2.56
Medium risk

Both teams to score56.3%@ 1.78
Over 2.5 goals56.1%@ 1.78
Over 9.5 corners49.3%@ 2.03
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.2%@ 8.93
1-2 correct score9.8%@ 10.24
0-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.80

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Valencia

21.2%

Draw

23.6%

Barcelona

55.2%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.5%

High probability

Over 2.556.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.7%

Low chance

Most cornersValencia53.1%Barcelona35.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.560.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.3%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.5%2.556.1%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.579.5%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ValenciaWWDLL
BarcelonaWLWWW

Last 5 meetings: Valencia 1 · 0 draws · Barcelona 4 · 5.4 goals/game.

2026-05-23Valencia 3-1 Barcelona
2025-09-14Barcelona 6-0 Valencia
2025-01-26Barcelona 7-1 Valencia
2024-08-17Valencia 1-2 Barcelona
2024-04-29Barcelona 4-2 Valencia

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ValenciaBarcelona
League position#17 of 20#1 of 20
Record W-D-L0-1-23-0-0
Current streakL2W3
Record, home vs away0-1-11-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.84 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 52%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Arnaut Danjuma GroeneveldValencia · key player
To score8.6%

@ 11.63

1+ on target40.7%

@ 2.46

2+ shots36.0%

@ 2.78

Shots/90 2.1SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.15
Lamine YamalBarcelona · key player
To score34.1%

@ 2.93

1+ on target74.6%

@ 1.34

2+ shots92.6%

@ 1.08

Shots/90 4.71SoT/90 1.51Goals/90 0.46
Umar SadiqValencia · in form
To score19.0%

@ 5.26

1+ on target34.0%

@ 2.94

2+ shots32.6%

@ 3.07

Shots/90 2.39SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.43
RaphinhaBarcelona · in form
To score43.8%

@ 2.28

1+ on target68.7%

@ 1.46

2+ shots80.9%

@ 1.24

Shots/90 3.76SoT/90 1.43Goals/90 0.71
RabaValencia · in form
To score18.0%

@ 5.56

1+ on target33.2%

@ 3.01

2+ shots35.5%

@ 2.82

Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 0.71Goals/90 0.35
Fermín LópezBarcelona · in form
To score22.9%

@ 4.37

1+ on target53.1%

@ 1.88

2+ shots58.5%

@ 1.71

Shots/90 3.25SoT/90 1.25Goals/90 0.43

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Valencia win4.53
Draw4.20
Barcelona win1.85
Both teams to score1.78

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.78
Over 3.5 goals2.96
Valencia most4.53
Barcelona most1.85

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.98
Over 10.5 corners2.58
Valencia most1.88
Barcelona most2.78

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.33
Over 3.5 cards1.80
Over 4.5 cards2.74
Over 5.5 cards4.67
Valencia most2.67
Barcelona most2.37

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.24
Over 9.5 SoT3.05
Valencia most2.31
Barcelona most2.30

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.65
Over 24.5 shots2.08
Over 26.5 shots2.79
Over 28.5 shots3.95
Valencia most1.81
Barcelona most2.60

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.52
Over 22.5 fouls1.94
Over 24.5 fouls2.68
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 70.4% Over 7.5 57.7% Over 8.5 44.7% Over 9.5 32.8%
Most: Valencia 43.3% Most: Barcelona 43.5%
Valencia Over 4.2 39.8% Barcelona Over 4.2 39.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.0% Over 3.5 55.6% Over 4.5 36.5%
Most: Valencia 37.4% Most: Barcelona 42.1%
Valencia Over 1.8 56.6% Barcelona Over 1.8 59.9%

Valencia: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld 2.1 0.87 0.15 40.7% 36.0% 8.6%
Umar Sadiq 2.39 0.85 0.43 34.0% 32.6% 19.0%
Raba 2.2 0.71 0.35 33.2% 35.5% 18.0%
Hugo Duro 1.66 0.65 0.44 34.7% 29.7% 25.1%
Mouctar Diakhaby 1.09 0.45 0.19 25.3% 15.8% 11.6%

Barcelona: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Lamine Yamal 4.71 1.51 0.46 74.6% 92.6% 34.1%
Raphinha 3.76 1.43 0.71 68.7% 80.9% 43.8%
Fermín López 3.25 1.25 0.43 53.1% 58.5% 22.9%
Karim Adeyemi 2.59 1.15 0.51 46.9% 41.6% 24.5%
Dani Olmo 2.91 0.98 0.41 45.8% 54.2% 22.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Valencia clean sheet 16.0%
Barcelona clean sheet 33.2%
Valencia win to nil 10.1%
Barcelona win to nil 27.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 22.1% draw 23.8% away 54.1%
double_chance
1X 45.9% 12 76.2% X2 77.9%
dnb
home 29.0% away 71.0%
btts
yes 56.3% no 43.7%
clean_sheet
home 16.0% away 33.6%
win_to_nil
home 10.2% away 27.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 13.5% home_by_2 6.0% home_by_3plus 2.6%
away_by_1 22.9% away_by_2 16.7% away_by_3plus 14.5%
correct_score
0-0 5.9% 0-1 9.3% 0-2 9.0%
0-3 5.5% 0-4 2.6% 0-5 1.0%
1-0 5.3% 1-1 11.2% 1-2 9.8%
1-3 6.0% 1-4 2.8% 1-5 1.0%
2-0 3.2% 2-1 5.9% 2-2 5.4%
2-3 3.3% 2-4 1.5% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 1.2% 3-1 2.2% 3-2 2.0%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.3% 4-1 0.6% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.1% under_0.5 5.9% over_1.5 79.6%
under_1.5 20.5% over_2.5 56.1% under_2.5 43.9%
over_3.5 33.8% under_3.5 66.2% over_4.5 17.4%
under_4.5 82.6% over_5.5 7.8% under_5.5 92.2%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 66.4% under_0.5 33.6% over_1.5 30.0%
under_1.5 70.0% over_2.5 10.0% under_2.5 90.0%
team_away
over_0.5 84.0% under_0.5 16.0% over_1.5 54.7%
under_1.5 45.3% over_2.5 27.9% under_2.5 72.1%
most
home 22.1% draw 23.8% away 54.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.6% away_+2.5 97.4% home_-1.5 8.6%
away_+1.5 91.4% home_-0.5 22.1% away_+0.5 77.9%
home_+0.5 45.9% away_-0.5 54.1% home_+1.5 68.8%
away_-1.5 31.2% home_+2.5 85.5% away_-2.5 14.5%
total_exact
exact_0 5.9% exact_1 14.6% exact_2 23.4%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.4% exact_5 9.6%
exact_6 4.7% exact_7plus 3.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 17.5% draw 41.1% away 41.4%
total
over_0.5 69.2% under_0.5 30.8% over_1.5 33.0%
under_1.5 67.0% over_2.5 11.6% under_2.5 88.4%
btts
yes 17.8% no 82.2%
total_exact
exact_0 30.8% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.4%
exact_3 8.4% exact_4plus 3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 19.0% draw 30.5% away 50.6%
total
over_0.5 84.0% under_0.5 16.0% over_1.5 54.7%
under_1.5 45.3% over_2.5 27.8% under_2.5 72.2%
btts
yes 32.5% no 67.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 9.6% H/D 4.4% H/A 3.5%
D/H 7.8% D/D 12.5% D/A 20.8%
A/H 1.4% A/D 4.4% A/A 35.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.1% under_7.5 25.9% over_8.5 62.7%
under_8.5 37.3% over_9.5 50.5% under_9.5 49.5%
over_10.5 38.7% under_10.5 61.3% over_11.5 28.3%
under_11.5 71.7% over_12.5 19.7% under_12.5 80.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.6% under_3.5 26.4% over_4.5 58.3%
under_4.5 41.7% over_5.5 42.9% under_5.5 57.1%
team_away
over_3.5 62.4% under_3.5 37.6% over_4.5 45.2%
under_4.5 54.8% over_5.5 30.1% under_5.5 69.9%
most
home 53.3% draw 10.7% away 36.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.1% away_+3.5 76.9% home_-1.5 42.3%
away_+1.5 57.7% home_-0.5 53.3% away_+0.5 46.7%
home_+0.5 64.0% away_-0.5 36.0% home_+1.5 73.7%
away_-1.5 26.3% home_+3.5 88.1% away_-3.5 11.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 60.7% under_22.5 39.4% over_24.5 48.0%
under_24.5 52.0% over_26.5 35.9% under_26.5 64.1%
over_28.5 25.3% under_28.5 74.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.0% under_10.5 32.0% over_12.5 50.7%
under_12.5 49.3% over_14.5 34.4% under_14.5 65.6%
team_away
over_10.5 56.8% under_10.5 43.2% over_12.5 38.7%
under_12.5 61.3% over_14.5 23.7% under_14.5 76.3%
most
home 55.3% draw 6.3% away 38.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 30.5% away_+4.5 69.5% home_-2.5 42.5%
away_+2.5 57.5% home_-0.5 55.3% away_+0.5 44.7%
home_+0.5 61.6% away_-0.5 38.4% home_+2.5 73.1%
away_-2.5 26.9% home_+4.5 82.6% away_-4.5 17.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 70.4% under_6.5 29.6% over_7.5 57.7%
under_7.5 42.3% over_8.5 44.7% under_8.5 55.3%
over_9.5 32.8% under_9.5 67.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 58.0% under_3.5 42.0% over_4.5 39.8%
under_4.5 60.2% over_5.5 24.8% under_5.5 75.2%
team_away
over_3.5 58.2% under_3.5 41.9% over_4.5 40.0%
under_4.5 60.1% over_5.5 24.9% under_5.5 75.1%
most
home 43.3% draw 13.3% away 43.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 20.3% away_+2.5 79.8% home_-0.5 43.3%
away_+0.5 56.8% home_+0.5 56.5% away_-0.5 43.5%
home_+2.5 79.6% away_-2.5 20.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.0% under_2.5 25.0% over_3.5 55.6%
under_3.5 44.4% over_4.5 36.6% under_4.5 63.4%
over_5.5 21.4% under_5.5 78.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 56.6% under_1.5 43.4% over_2.5 30.3%
under_2.5 69.7%
team_away
over_1.5 59.9% under_1.5 40.1% over_2.5 33.6%
under_2.5 66.4%
most
home 37.5% draw 20.4% away 42.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.3% away_+1.5 79.7% home_-0.5 37.5%
away_+0.5 62.6% home_+0.5 57.9% away_-0.5 42.1%
home_+1.5 76.0% away_-1.5 24.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 65.9% under_20.5 34.1% over_22.5 51.5%
under_22.5 48.5% over_24.5 37.4% under_24.5 62.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 69.5% under_9.5 30.5% over_11.5 49.2%
under_11.5 50.8% over_13.5 30.4% under_13.5 69.6%
team_away
over_9.5 65.8% under_9.5 34.2% over_11.5 45.0%
under_11.5 55.0% over_13.5 26.7% under_13.5 73.4%
most
home 49.3% draw 7.3% away 43.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.4% away_+3.5 71.6% home_-0.5 49.3%
away_+0.5 50.7% home_+2.5 70.4% away_-2.5 29.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.1% no 85.9%
home
yes 8.2% no 91.8%
away
yes 6.4% no 93.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Valencia predictions · Barcelona predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

La LigaValenciaBarcelonaTrack record