Udinese vs Lazio prediction & probabilities (2026-09-07)

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Udinese vs Lazio: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

Serie A
Udinese

WLLDW

Full time1-2Mon, 7 Sep 202619:45UK29°C · Cloudy
Lazio

LLWWW

Model’s top convictions

68%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Draw or Lazio

62%

Udinese or draw

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Udinese 1-2 Lazio
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
6 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Lazio at 38.5%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 59.1% and it missed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 68.0% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 79.6% and it landed (3 goals). We called No at 52.3% and it missed. We called Yes at 63.2% and it missed. We called Yes at 72.5% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 58.5% and it missed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 56.7% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.3% and it missed (29 shots). We called Under 7.5 at 50.3% and it missed (12 shots on target). We called No at 80.4% and it landed.

Match data Udinese Lazio
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 2
Shots 10 19
Shots, 1st half 6 4
Shots, 2nd half 4 15
Shots on target 6 6
Corners 2 8
Yellow cards 5 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 13 9
Expected goals (xG) 0.80 1.98

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LazioWin probability
38.5%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals68.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Draw or Lazio67.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.48
Udinese or draw61.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Lazio at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 7 September 2026. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 41% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. Conditions could matter: the forecast says 29 degrees of heat. The recent series reads 2 wins for Udinese, 3 draws and 0 for Lazio over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. For shots markets, Keinan Davis is the obvious watch at 1.0 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Udinese arrive W3 D1 L2, Lazio W4 D0 L2. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners41.2%@ 2.43
Over 2.5 goals40.9%@ 2.44
Lazio win38.5%@ 2.60
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals59.1%@ 1.69
Not both teams to score52.3%@ 1.91
Over 8.5 corners50.9%@ 1.96
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.9%@ 7.22
0-1 correct score11.1%@ 9.05
0-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.51

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Udinese

32.6%

Draw

28.9%

Lazio

38.5%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.568.0%

Strong chance

Over 2.540.9%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes47.7%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.550.9%

Good chance

Over 9.541.2%

Toss-up

Over 10.532.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.0%

Low chance

Most cornersUdinese52.7%Lazio36.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.7%

Good chance

Over 24.547.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.568.0%2.540.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.568.0%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

UdineseWLLDW
LazioLLWWW

Last 5 meetings: Udinese 2 · 3 draws · Lazio 0 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-04-27Lazio 3-3 Udinese
2025-12-27Udinese 1-1 Lazio
2025-03-10Lazio 1-1 Udinese
2024-08-24Udinese 2-1 Lazio
2024-03-11Lazio 1-2 Udinese

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

UdineseLazio
League position#7 of 20#6 of 20
Record W-D-L1-1-02-0-0
Current streakW1W2
Record, home vs away0-1-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.45 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 45% · BTTS in 35%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Keinan DavisUdinese · key player
To score21.1%

@ 4.74

1+ on target50.6%

@ 1.98

2+ shots45.8%

@ 2.18

Shots/90 2.22SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.34
Andrea PinamontiLazio · key player
To score22.2%

@ 4.50

1+ on target56.3%

@ 1.78

2+ shots62.4%

@ 1.60

Shots/90 2.53SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.3
Nicolo ZanioloUdinese · in form
To score12.1%

@ 8.26

1+ on target42.2%

@ 2.37

2+ shots50.5%

@ 1.98

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.21
Gustav IsaksenLazio · in form
To score11.6%

@ 8.62

1+ on target46.3%

@ 2.16

2+ shots46.6%

@ 2.15

Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 0.96Goals/90 0.19
Idrissa GueyeUdinese · in form
To score4.0%

@ 25.00

1+ on target18.7%

@ 5.35

2+ shots29.5%

@ 3.39

Shots/90 3.97SoT/90 0.76Goals/90 0.15
Tijjani NoslinLazio · in form
To score10.0%

@ 10.00

1+ on target28.4%

@ 3.52

2+ shots23.8%

@ 4.20

Shots/90 2.64SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.3

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Udinese win2.96
Draw3.39
Lazio win2.73
Both teams to score2.10

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.47
Over 2.5 goals2.45
Over 3.5 goals4.89
Udinese most2.96
Lazio most2.73

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.58
Over 8.5 corners1.92
Over 9.5 corners2.41
Over 10.5 corners3.13
Udinese most1.89
Lazio most2.71

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.32
Over 3.5 cards1.76
Over 4.5 cards2.65
Over 5.5 cards4.46
Udinese most2.56
Lazio most2.46

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.62
Over 7.5 SoT2.01
Over 8.5 SoT2.60
Over 9.5 SoT3.50
Udinese most2.11
Lazio most2.49

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.10
Over 26.5 shots2.76
Over 28.5 shots3.84
Udinese most1.67
Lazio most2.91

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.33
Over 22.5 fouls1.60
Over 24.5 fouls2.03
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 61.6% Over 7.5 49.7% Over 8.5 38.4% Over 9.5 28.6%
Most: Udinese 47.5% Most: Lazio 40.2%
Udinese Over 4.2 37.9% Lazio Over 4.2 32.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.7% Over 3.5 56.7% Over 4.5 37.7%
Most: Udinese 39.1% Most: Lazio 40.7%
Udinese Over 1.8 58.4% Lazio Over 1.8 59.6%

Udinese: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Keinan Davis 2.22 1.01 0.34 50.6% 45.8% 21.1%
Nicolo Zaniolo 2.75 0.89 0.21 42.2% 50.5% 12.1%
Idrissa Gueye 3.97 0.76 0.15 18.7% 29.5% 4.0%
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 1.36 0.55 0.19 33.4% 26.6% 13.1%
Unai Gómez 1.73 0.49 0.08 19.2% 17.4% 3.4%

Lazio: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Andrea Pinamonti 2.53 0.99 0.3 56.3% 62.4% 22.2%
Gustav Isaksen 2.43 0.96 0.19 46.3% 46.6% 11.6%
Tijjani Noslin 2.64 0.95 0.3 28.4% 23.8% 10.0%
Matteo Cancellieri 1.78 0.67 0.17 35.0% 31.7% 10.4%
Davide Frattesi 2.26 0.65 0.35 23.2% 23.5% 13.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Udinese clean sheet 30.4%
Lazio clean sheet 32.3%
Udinese win to nil 19.9%
Lazio win to nil 21.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 33.8% draw 29.5% away 36.7%
double_chance
1X 63.3% 12 70.5% X2 66.2%
dnb
home 48.0% away 52.1%
btts
yes 47.7% no 52.3%
clean_sheet
home 30.5% away 32.3%
win_to_nil
home 20.0% away 21.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.8% home_by_2 9.6% home_by_3plus 4.4%
away_by_1 20.9% away_by_2 10.6% away_by_3plus 5.2%
correct_score
0-0 10.5% 0-1 11.1% 0-2 7.0%
0-3 2.8% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.5% 1-1 13.9% 1-2 7.8%
1-3 3.1% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 6.3% 2-1 7.5% 2-2 4.4%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 2.4% 3-1 2.8% 3-2 1.7%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.7% 4-1 0.8% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 89.5% under_0.5 10.5% over_1.5 68.0%
under_1.5 32.0% over_2.5 40.9% under_2.5 59.1%
over_3.5 20.4% under_3.5 79.6% over_4.5 8.6%
under_4.5 91.4% over_5.5 3.1% under_5.5 96.9%
odd_even
odd 48.2% even 51.8%
team_home
over_0.5 67.7% under_0.5 32.3% over_1.5 31.2%
under_1.5 68.8% over_2.5 10.6% under_2.5 89.4%
team_away
over_0.5 69.5% under_0.5 30.5% over_1.5 33.3%
under_1.5 66.7% over_2.5 11.8% under_2.5 88.2%
most
home 33.8% draw 29.5% away 36.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.4% away_+2.5 95.6% home_-1.5 14.0%
away_+1.5 86.0% home_-0.5 33.8% away_+0.5 66.2%
home_+0.5 63.3% away_-0.5 36.7% home_+1.5 84.2%
away_-1.5 15.8% home_+2.5 94.8% away_-2.5 5.2%
total_exact
exact_0 10.5% exact_1 21.5% exact_2 27.1%
exact_3 20.4% exact_4 11.8% exact_5 5.5%
exact_6 2.1% exact_7plus 1.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.5% draw 46.4% away 22.1%
total
over_0.5 63.2% under_0.5 36.8% over_1.5 26.4%
under_1.5 73.6% over_2.5 8.0% under_2.5 92.0%
btts
yes 15.2% no 84.8%
total_exact
exact_0 36.8% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.4%
exact_3 6.1% exact_4plus 1.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.7% draw 40.0% away 35.3%
total
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.5% over_1.5 37.0%
under_1.5 63.1% over_2.5 14.1% under_2.5 86.0%
btts
yes 22.2% no 77.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.4% H/D 6.4% H/A 2.7%
D/H 11.4% D/D 18.5% D/A 16.4%
A/H 1.1% A/D 3.5% A/A 17.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 63.1% under_7.5 36.9% over_8.5 52.1%
under_8.5 47.9% over_9.5 41.5% under_9.5 58.5%
over_10.5 31.9% under_10.5 68.1% over_11.5 23.7%
under_11.5 76.3% over_12.5 17.1% under_12.5 82.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.0% under_3.5 35.0% over_4.5 50.5%
under_4.5 49.5% over_5.5 37.3% under_5.5 62.7%
team_away
over_3.5 53.8% under_3.5 46.2% over_4.5 38.5%
under_4.5 61.5% over_5.5 26.0% under_5.5 74.0%
most
home 52.8% draw 10.2% away 37.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.3% away_+3.5 75.7% home_-1.5 42.5%
away_+1.5 57.5% home_-0.5 52.8% away_+0.5 47.2%
home_+0.5 63.1% away_-0.5 37.0% home_+1.5 72.4%
away_-1.5 27.6% home_+3.5 86.6% away_-3.5 13.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.7% under_22.5 40.3% over_24.5 47.7%
under_24.5 52.3% over_26.5 36.2% under_26.5 63.8%
over_28.5 26.0% under_28.5 74.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.6% under_10.5 30.4% over_12.5 53.6%
under_12.5 46.4% over_14.5 38.1% under_14.5 61.9%
team_away
over_10.5 52.4% under_10.5 47.6% over_12.5 35.3%
under_12.5 64.7% over_14.5 21.6% under_14.5 78.4%
most
home 59.8% draw 5.8% away 34.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.7% away_+4.5 64.3% home_-2.5 47.6%
away_+2.5 52.4% home_-0.5 59.8% away_+0.5 40.2%
home_+0.5 65.6% away_-0.5 34.4% home_+2.5 76.1%
away_-2.5 23.9% home_+4.5 84.5% away_-4.5 15.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 61.6% under_6.5 38.4% over_7.5 49.7%
under_7.5 50.3% over_8.5 38.4% under_8.5 61.6%
over_9.5 28.6% under_9.5 71.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 53.6% under_3.5 46.4% over_4.5 37.9%
under_4.5 62.1% over_5.5 25.2% under_5.5 74.8%
team_away
over_3.5 48.4% under_3.5 51.6% over_4.5 32.8%
under_4.5 67.2% over_5.5 20.8% under_5.5 79.2%
most
home 47.5% draw 12.3% away 40.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 25.1% away_+2.5 74.9% home_-0.5 47.5%
away_+0.5 52.5% home_+0.5 59.8% away_-0.5 40.2%
home_+2.5 80.5% away_-2.5 19.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.8% under_2.5 24.3% over_3.5 56.7%
under_3.5 43.3% over_4.5 37.7% under_4.5 62.3%
over_5.5 22.4% under_5.5 77.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 58.4% under_1.5 41.6% over_2.5 32.2%
under_2.5 67.8%
team_away
over_1.5 59.6% under_1.5 40.5% over_2.5 33.3%
under_2.5 66.7%
most
home 39.1% draw 20.2% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.8% away_+1.5 78.3% home_-0.5 39.1%
away_+0.5 60.9% home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7%
home_+1.5 77.0% away_-1.5 23.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 75.0% under_20.5 25.0% over_22.5 62.6%
under_22.5 37.4% over_24.5 49.3% under_24.5 50.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 78.9% under_9.5 21.1% over_11.5 62.2%
under_11.5 37.9% over_13.5 44.0% under_13.5 56.0%
team_away
over_9.5 67.3% under_9.5 32.7% over_11.5 47.7%
under_11.5 52.3% over_13.5 29.8% under_13.5 70.2%
most
home 57.0% draw 6.5% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 37.0% away_+3.5 63.0% home_-0.5 57.0%
away_+0.5 43.0% home_+2.5 75.3% away_-2.5 24.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.6% no 80.4%
home
yes 11.4% no 88.6%
away
yes 9.2% no 90.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Udinese predictions · Lazio predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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More on this match

Serie AUdineseLazioTrack record