West Ham vs Wolves: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 1 Sep 2026

Championship

West Ham

DLD

Full time4-2Tue, 1 Sep 202619:45UK

Wolves

DLDWW

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

West Ham or draw

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

West Ham 4-2 Wolves

✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was West Ham at 41.8%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.7% and it missed (6 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 72.4% and it landed (6 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 75.2% and it missed (6 goals). We called Yes at 51.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 77.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 83.3% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 58.0% and it landed (13 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 54.0% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 51.6% and it landed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 57.6% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 95.6% and it landed.

Match data	West Ham	Wolves
Goals, 1st half	2	1
Goals, 2nd half	2	1
Shots	12	18
Shots on target	6	3
Corners	6	7
Yellow cards	2	1
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	9	9

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

West HamWin probability

41.8%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals72.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.38

West Ham or draw69.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.43

Over 8.5 corners66.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.50

Model read

▾

The model leans West Ham at 42% when West Ham host Wolves in the Championship on 1 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate West Ham higher (47%) than our model does. 2) No strong lean on goals (46% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Valentín Castellanos drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. Recent form reads W0 D2 L1 for West Ham against W3 D2 L1 for Wolves. As a promoted side, West Ham carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.022 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals46.3%@ 2.16

Over 10.5 corners45.7%@ 2.19

Over 11.5 corners35.9%@ 2.79

Medium risk

Draw or Wolves58.2%@ 1.72

Over 9.5 corners56.2%@ 1.78

Under 2.5 goals53.7%@ 1.86

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.54

1-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.58

2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.43

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

West Ham

41.8%-5.4%

Draw

27.9%+2.3%

Wolves

30.3%+3.1%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.022 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.546.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.566.6%

Strong chance

Over 9.556.2%

Good chance

Over 10.545.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.9%

Toss-up

Most cornersWest Ham57.5%Wolves32.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.6%

Good chance

Over 26.539.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.3%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.4%2.546.3%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.572.4%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

West HamDLD

WolvesDLDWW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

West Ham

Wolves

League position#19 of 24#2 of 24

Record W-D-L0-2-12-1-0

Current streakD1W2

Record, home vs away0-0-11-0-0

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Valentín CastellanosWest Ham · key player

To score28.5%

@ 3.51

1+ on target68.8%

@ 1.45

2+ shots76.6%

@ 1.31

Shots/90 3.15SoT/90 1.32Goals/90 0.38

Matheus CunhaWolves · key player

To score37.2%

@ 2.69

1+ on target74.6%

@ 1.34

2+ shots84.9%

@ 1.18

Shots/90 3.76SoT/90 1.53Goals/90 0.52

Callum WilsonWest Ham · in form

To score19.6%

@ 5.10

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots33.2%

@ 3.01

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.51

Tolu ArokodareWolves · in form

To score8.7%

@ 11.49

1+ on target38.4%

@ 2.60

2+ shots40.6%

@ 2.46

Shots/90 3.05SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.2

Jarrod BowenWest Ham · in form

To score26.5%

@ 3.77

1+ on target59.4%

@ 1.68

2+ shots68.3%

@ 1.46

Shots/90 2.38SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.31

Jørgen Strand LarsenWolves · in form

To score22.6%

@ 4.42

1+ on target50.6%

@ 1.98

2+ shots38.5%

@ 2.60

Shots/90 1.72SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.33

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

West Ham win2.012.39

Draw3.603.58

Wolves win3.403.30

Over 2.5 goals1.672.16

Under 2.5 goals2.201.86

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

West Ham win2.39

Draw3.59

Wolves win3.30

Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09

Over 1.5 goals1.38

Over 2.5 goals2.16

Over 3.5 goals4.03

West Ham most2.39

Wolves most3.30

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26

Over 8.5 corners1.44

Over 9.5 corners1.72

Over 10.5 corners2.16

West Ham most1.74

Wolves most3.10

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.35

Over 3.5 cards1.85

Over 4.5 cards2.89

Over 5.5 cards5.14

West Ham most2.75

Wolves most2.34

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.43

Over 7.5 SoT1.74

Over 8.5 SoT2.22

Over 9.5 SoT3.00

West Ham most1.87

Wolves most2.96

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.56

Over 24.5 shots1.94

Over 26.5 shots2.54

Over 28.5 shots3.53

West Ham most1.57

Wolves most3.29

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.65

Over 22.5 fouls2.23

Over 24.5 fouls3.29

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	70.1%	Over 7.5	57.6%	Over 8.5	45.0%	Over 9.5	33.3%
Most: West Ham	53.6%	Most: Wolves	33.8%
West Ham Over 4.2	47.0%	Wolves Over 4.2	32.8%

Cards

Over 2.5	74.2%	Over 3.5	54.0%	Over 4.5	34.5%
Most: West Ham	36.3%	Most: Wolves	42.7%
West Ham Over 1.8	55.3%	Wolves Over 1.8	59.8%

West Ham: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Valentín Castellanos	3.15	1.32	0.38	68.8%	76.6%	28.5%
Callum Wilson	2.78	1.17	0.51	39.3%	33.2%	19.6%
Jarrod Bowen	2.38	0.91	0.31	59.4%	68.3%	26.5%
Mohammed Kudus	2.59	0.8	0.19	51.6%	68.0%	15.8%
Niclas Füllkrug	1.83	0.71	0.24	32.2%	26.5%	12.3%

Wolves: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Matheus Cunha	3.76	1.53	0.52	74.6%	84.9%	37.2%
Tolu Arokodare	3.05	1.06	0.2	38.4%	40.6%	8.7%
Jørgen Strand Larsen	1.72	0.91	0.33	50.6%	38.5%	22.6%
Mateus Mané	2.07	0.86	0.15	45.6%	43.1%	10.1%
Gonçalo Guedes	2.54	0.75	0.19	24.7%	25.0%	6.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

West Ham clean sheet	31.8%
Wolves clean sheet	25.0%
West Ham win to nil	23.2%
Wolves win to nil	16.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	41.8%	draw	27.9%	away	30.3%

double_chance

1X	69.7%	12	72.1%	X2	58.2%

dnb

home	58.0%	away	42.0%

btts

yes	51.7%	no	48.3%

clean_sheet

home	31.9%	away	25.0%

win_to_nil

home	23.3%	away	16.4%

winning_margin

home_by_1	21.8%	home_by_2	12.6%	home_by_3plus	7.4%
away_by_1	17.9%	away_by_2	8.6%	away_by_3plus	3.9%

correct_score

0-0	8.6%	0-1	8.5%	0-2	5.2%
0-3	2.0%	0-4	0.6%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	10.4%	1-1	13.3%	1-2	7.2%
1-3	2.7%	1-4	0.8%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	7.7%	2-1	8.8%	2-2	5.0%
2-3	1.9%	2-4	0.5%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	3.5%	3-1	4.0%	3-2	2.3%
3-3	0.9%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.2%	4-1	1.4%	4-2	0.8%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.4%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.4%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.3%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.4%	under_0.5	8.6%	over_1.5	72.4%
under_1.5	27.6%	over_2.5	46.3%	under_2.5	53.7%
over_3.5	24.8%	under_3.5	75.2%	over_4.5	11.2%
under_4.5	88.8%	over_5.5	4.4%	under_5.5	95.6%

odd_even

odd	48.4%	even	51.6%

team_home

over_0.5	75.0%	under_0.5	25.0%	over_1.5	40.3%
under_1.5	59.7%	over_2.5	16.3%	under_2.5	83.7%

team_away

over_0.5	68.1%	under_0.5	31.9%	over_1.5	31.6%
under_1.5	68.4%	over_2.5	10.8%	under_2.5	89.2%

most

home	41.8%	draw	27.9%	away	30.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	7.4%	away_+2.5	92.6%	home_-1.5	20.0%
away_+1.5	80.0%	home_-0.5	41.8%	away_+0.5	58.2%
home_+0.5	69.7%	away_-0.5	30.3%	home_+1.5	87.6%
away_-1.5	12.4%	home_+2.5	96.1%	away_-2.5	3.9%

total_exact

exact_0	8.6%	exact_1	18.9%	exact_2	26.1%
exact_3	21.5%	exact_4	13.6%	exact_5	6.9%
exact_6	2.9%	exact_7plus	1.5%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	29.6%	draw	36.6%	away	33.8%

total

over_0.5	77.8%	under_0.5	22.2%	over_1.5	44.4%
under_1.5	55.6%	over_2.5	19.2%	under_2.5	80.8%

btts

yes	27.9%	no	72.1%

total_exact

exact_0	22.2%	exact_1	33.4%	exact_2	25.1%
exact_3	12.6%	exact_4plus	6.6%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	24.9%	draw	32.4%	away	42.7%

total

over_0.5	83.3%	under_0.5	16.7%	over_1.5	53.4%
under_1.5	46.6%	over_2.5	26.6%	under_2.5	73.4%

btts

yes	33.9%	no	66.1%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	19.4%	H/D	6.2%	H/A	4.0%
D/H	9.1%	D/D	11.9%	D/A	15.6%
A/H	1.8%	A/D	4.5%	A/A	27.4%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	79.6%	under_7.5	20.4%	over_8.5	69.5%
under_8.5	30.5%	over_9.5	58.0%	under_9.5	42.0%
over_10.5	46.3%	under_10.5	53.7%	over_11.5	35.3%
under_11.5	64.7%	over_12.5	25.7%	under_12.5	74.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	79.5%	under_3.5	20.5%	over_4.5	65.8%
under_4.5	34.2%	over_5.5	50.9%	under_5.5	49.1%

team_away

over_3.5	64.1%	under_3.5	35.9%	over_4.5	47.0%
under_4.5	53.0%	over_5.5	31.8%	under_5.5	68.3%

most

home	57.6%	draw	10.1%	away	32.3%

handicap

home_-3.5	27.3%	away_+3.5	72.8%	home_-1.5	47.0%
away_+1.5	53.0%	home_-0.5	57.6%	away_+0.5	42.4%
home_+0.5	67.7%	away_-0.5	32.3%	home_+1.5	76.7%
away_-1.5	23.3%	home_+3.5	89.6%	away_-3.5	10.4%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	64.1%	under_22.5	35.9%	over_24.5	51.6%
under_24.5	48.4%	over_26.5	39.4%	under_26.5	60.6%
over_28.5	28.3%	under_28.5	71.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	75.0%	under_10.5	25.0%	over_12.5	59.1%
under_12.5	40.9%	over_14.5	42.8%	under_14.5	57.2%

team_away

over_10.5	52.9%	under_10.5	47.1%	over_12.5	34.9%
under_12.5	65.1%	over_14.5	20.6%	under_14.5	79.4%

most

home	63.8%	draw	5.8%	away	30.4%

handicap

home_-4.5	38.9%	away_+4.5	61.1%	home_-2.5	51.4%
away_+2.5	48.6%	home_-0.5	63.8%	away_+0.5	36.2%
home_+0.5	69.6%	away_-0.5	30.4%	home_+2.5	79.7%
away_-2.5	20.3%	home_+4.5	87.5%	away_-4.5	12.5%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	70.1%	under_6.5	29.9%	over_7.5	57.6%
under_7.5	42.4%	over_8.5	45.0%	under_8.5	55.0%
over_9.5	33.3%	under_9.5	66.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	64.3%	under_3.5	35.7%	over_4.5	47.1%
under_4.5	52.9%	over_5.5	31.6%	under_5.5	68.4%

team_away

over_3.5	50.5%	under_3.5	49.5%	over_4.5	32.8%
under_4.5	67.2%	over_5.5	19.4%	under_5.5	80.6%

most

home	53.6%	draw	12.6%	away	33.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	28.9%	away_+2.5	71.1%	home_-0.5	53.6%
away_+0.5	46.4%	home_+0.5	66.2%	away_-0.5	33.8%
home_+2.5	85.7%	away_-2.5	14.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	74.2%	under_2.5	25.8%	over_3.5	54.0%
under_3.5	46.0%	over_4.5	34.6%	under_4.5	65.5%
over_5.5	19.5%	under_5.5	80.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	55.3%	under_1.5	44.7%	over_2.5	28.4%
under_2.5	71.6%

team_away

over_1.5	59.8%	under_1.5	40.2%	over_2.5	32.7%
under_2.5	67.3%

most

home	36.3%	draw	21.0%	away	42.7%

handicap

home_-1.5	19.0%	away_+1.5	81.0%	home_-0.5	36.3%
away_+0.5	63.7%	home_+0.5	57.3%	away_-0.5	42.7%
home_+1.5	76.1%	away_-1.5	23.8%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	60.5%	under_20.5	39.5%	over_22.5	44.8%
under_22.5	55.2%	over_24.5	30.4%	under_24.5	69.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	59.6%	under_9.5	40.4%	over_11.5	37.2%
under_11.5	62.8%	over_13.5	19.5%	under_13.5	80.5%

team_away

over_9.5	69.1%	under_9.5	30.9%	over_11.5	47.6%
under_11.5	52.4%	over_13.5	27.9%	under_13.5	72.1%

most

home	38.8%	draw	7.8%	away	53.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	18.9%	away_+3.5	81.1%	home_-0.5	38.8%
away_+0.5	61.2%	home_+2.5	62.2%	away_-2.5	37.8%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	4.4%	no	95.6%

home

yes	1.9%	no	98.1%

away

yes	2.6%	no	97.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: West Ham predictions · Wolves predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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