Birmingham vs Southampton prediction & probabilities (2026-09-01)

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Birmingham vs Southampton: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 1 Sep 2026

Championship
Birmingham

WDDDW

Full time1-1Tue, 1 Sep 202620:00UK
Southampton

DWLWW

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Draw or Southampton

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Birmingham 1-1 Southampton
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Southampton at 42.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 53.3% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.7% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.0% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 57.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 76.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.8% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 59.0% and it missed (8 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 51.4% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 54.2% and it landed (29 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 59.7% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 87.4% and it landed.

Match data Birmingham Southampton
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 16 13
Shots on target 4 4
Corners 3 5
Yellow cards 3 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 12 8

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
SouthamptonWin probability
42.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.29
Draw or Southampton68.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Over 8.5 corners67.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.48

Model read

▾

Birmingham versus Southampton on 1 September 2026 tilts towards Southampton in our numbers (42%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Southampton than the market (36%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • No strong lean on goals (53% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 0 wins for Birmingham, 1 draws and 3 for Southampton at 4.2 goals per match. • The run in: Birmingham arrive W3 D3 L0, Southampton W3 D2 L1. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners46.6%@ 2.15
Southampton win42.2%@ 2.37
Over 11.5 corners36.8%@ 2.72
Medium risk

Birmingham or draw57.8%@ 1.73
Both teams to score57.2%@ 1.75
Over 9.5 corners57.0%@ 1.75
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.4%@ 8.08
1-2 correct score9.0%@ 11.14
0-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.67

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Birmingham

31.6%-5.2%

Draw

26.2%-1.2%

Southampton

42.2%+6.4%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.553.3%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.2%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.567.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.557.0%

Good chance

Over 10.546.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersBirmingham56.5%Southampton33.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.566.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.554.2%

Good chance

Over 26.541.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.530.6%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.7%2.553.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.7%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

BirminghamWDDDW
SouthamptonDWLWW

Last 4 meetings: Birmingham 0 · 1 draws · Southampton 3 · 4.3 goals/game.

2025-12-29Birmingham 1-1 Southampton
2025-12-06Southampton 3-1 Birmingham
2024-03-02Birmingham 3-4 Southampton
2023-10-28Southampton 3-1 Birmingham

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BirminghamSouthampton
League position#9 of 24#5 of 24
Record W-D-L1-2-02-0-1
Current streakW1W2
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Paul OnuachuSouthampton · key player
To score14.6%

@ 6.85

1+ on target45.1%

@ 2.22

2+ shots39.4%

@ 2.54

Shots/90 3.01SoT/90 1.33Goals/90 0.35
Cameron ArcherSouthampton · in form
To score5.9%

@ 16.95

1+ on target26.7%

@ 3.75

2+ shots20.7%

@ 4.83

Shots/90 1.82SoT/90 0.67Goals/90 0.13
Adam ArmstrongSouthampton · in form
To score11.2%

@ 8.93

1+ on target33.8%

@ 2.96

2+ shots30.8%

@ 3.25

Shots/90 1.6SoT/90 0.59Goals/90 0.17

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Birmingham win2.503.16
Draw3.303.82
Southampton win2.572.37
Over 2.5 goals1.801.88
Under 2.5 goals2.002.14

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Birmingham win3.17
Draw3.82
Southampton win2.37
Both teams to score1.75

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.88
Over 3.5 goals3.22
Birmingham most3.17
Southampton most2.37

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.42
Over 9.5 corners1.70
Over 10.5 corners2.11
Birmingham most1.76
Southampton most3.01

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.95
Over 4.5 cards3.12
Over 5.5 cards5.70
Birmingham most2.77
Southampton most2.35

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.39
Over 7.5 SoT1.68
Over 8.5 SoT2.12
Over 9.5 SoT2.82
Birmingham most1.92
Southampton most2.83

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.51
Over 24.5 shots1.85
Over 26.5 shots2.39
Over 28.5 shots3.27
Birmingham most1.58
Southampton most3.22

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.62
Over 22.5 fouls2.17
Over 24.5 fouls3.17
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.9% Over 7.5 59.7% Over 8.5 47.1% Over 9.5 35.4%
Most: Birmingham 52.1% Most: Southampton 35.4%
Birmingham Over 4.2 47.5% Southampton Over 4.2 35.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.1% Over 3.5 51.4% Over 4.5 32.0%
Most: Birmingham 36.1% Most: Southampton 42.5%
Birmingham Over 1.8 53.4% Southampton Over 1.8 58.0%

Southampton: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Paul Onuachu 3.01 1.33 0.35 45.1% 39.4% 14.6%
Cameron Archer 1.82 0.67 0.13 26.7% 20.7% 5.9%
Adam Armstrong 1.6 0.59 0.17 33.8% 30.8% 11.2%
Kamaldeen Sulemana 1.86 0.51 0.06 26.4% 30.7% 3.5%
Mateus Fernandes 1.24 0.4 0.06 31.6% 33.0% 5.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Birmingham clean sheet 21.8%
Southampton clean sheet 27.5%
Birmingham win to nil 15.2%
Southampton win to nil 20.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 31.6% draw 26.2% away 42.2%
double_chance
1X 57.8% 12 73.8% X2 68.4%
dnb
home 42.8% away 57.2%
btts
yes 57.2% no 42.8%
clean_sheet
home 21.8% away 27.6%
win_to_nil
home 15.2% away 21.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.7% home_by_2 9.2% home_by_3plus 4.7%
away_by_1 21.0% away_by_2 12.8% away_by_3plus 8.4%
correct_score
0-0 6.6% 0-1 8.6% 0-2 7.0%
0-3 3.6% 0-4 1.4% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.2% 1-1 12.4% 1-2 9.0%
1-3 4.6% 1-4 1.7% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.0% 2-1 7.6% 2-2 5.8%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.2% 3-1 3.3% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.7% 4-1 1.1% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.4% under_0.5 6.6% over_1.5 77.7%
under_1.5 22.3% over_2.5 53.3% under_2.5 46.7%
over_3.5 31.0% under_3.5 69.0% over_4.5 15.4%
under_4.5 84.6% over_5.5 6.6% under_5.5 93.4%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 72.4% under_0.5 27.6% over_1.5 36.9%
under_1.5 63.1% over_2.5 14.0% under_2.5 86.0%
team_away
over_0.5 78.2% under_0.5 21.8% over_1.5 45.0%
under_1.5 55.0% over_2.5 19.7% under_2.5 80.3%
most
home 31.6% draw 26.2% away 42.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.7% away_+2.5 95.3% home_-1.5 13.9%
away_+1.5 86.1% home_-0.5 31.6% away_+0.5 68.4%
home_+0.5 57.8% away_-0.5 42.2% home_+1.5 78.8%
away_-1.5 21.2% home_+2.5 91.6% away_-2.5 8.4%
total_exact
exact_0 6.6% exact_1 15.7% exact_2 24.3%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.6% exact_5 8.8%
exact_6 4.1% exact_7plus 2.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.2% draw 37.5% away 34.3%
total
over_0.5 76.4% under_0.5 23.6% over_1.5 42.3%
under_1.5 57.7% over_2.5 17.7% under_2.5 82.3%
btts
yes 26.3% no 73.7%
total_exact
exact_0 23.6% exact_1 34.1% exact_2 24.6%
exact_3 11.8% exact_4plus 5.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.1% draw 38.4% away 36.5%
total
over_0.5 74.8% under_0.5 25.2% over_1.5 40.1%
under_1.5 60.0% over_2.5 16.1% under_2.5 83.9%
btts
yes 24.3% no 75.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 20.0% H/D 5.6% H/A 2.6%
D/H 9.4% D/D 14.4% D/A 13.7%
A/H 1.6% A/D 4.8% A/A 27.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 80.3% under_7.5 19.7% over_8.5 70.3%
under_8.5 29.7% over_9.5 59.0% under_9.5 41.0%
over_10.5 47.3% under_10.5 52.7% over_11.5 36.3%
under_11.5 63.7% over_12.5 26.6% under_12.5 73.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.5% under_3.5 20.5% over_4.5 65.8%
under_4.5 34.2% over_5.5 50.9% under_5.5 49.1%
team_away
over_3.5 65.4% under_3.5 34.6% over_4.5 48.5%
under_4.5 51.5% over_5.5 33.1% under_5.5 66.9%
most
home 56.7% draw 10.2% away 33.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.6% away_+3.5 73.4% home_-1.5 46.1%
away_+1.5 53.9% home_-0.5 56.7% away_+0.5 43.3%
home_+0.5 66.8% away_-0.5 33.2% home_+1.5 75.9%
away_-1.5 24.2% home_+3.5 89.1% away_-3.5 10.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 66.4% under_22.5 33.6% over_24.5 54.2%
under_24.5 45.8% over_26.5 41.9% under_26.5 58.1%
over_28.5 30.6% under_28.5 69.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.0% under_10.5 24.0% over_12.5 60.5%
under_12.5 39.5% over_14.5 44.1% under_14.5 55.9%
team_away
over_10.5 55.2% under_10.5 44.8% over_12.5 37.1%
under_12.5 62.9% over_14.5 22.4% under_14.5 77.6%
most
home 63.2% draw 5.8% away 31.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.5% away_+4.5 61.5% home_-2.5 50.9%
away_+2.5 49.1% home_-0.5 63.2% away_+0.5 36.8%
home_+0.5 69.0% away_-0.5 31.0% home_+2.5 79.1%
away_-2.5 20.9% home_+4.5 87.0% away_-4.5 13.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.9% under_6.5 28.1% over_7.5 59.7%
under_7.5 40.3% over_8.5 47.2% under_8.5 52.8%
over_9.5 35.4% under_9.5 64.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.7% under_3.5 35.3% over_4.5 47.5%
under_4.5 52.5% over_5.5 32.1% under_5.5 67.9%
team_away
over_3.5 53.3% under_3.5 46.8% over_4.5 35.5%
under_4.5 64.5% over_5.5 21.5% under_5.5 78.5%
most
home 52.1% draw 12.6% away 35.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.9% away_+2.5 72.1% home_-0.5 52.1%
away_+0.5 47.9% home_+0.5 64.6% away_-0.5 35.4%
home_+2.5 84.5% away_-2.5 15.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.1% under_2.5 27.9% over_3.5 51.4%
under_3.5 48.6% over_4.5 32.0% under_4.5 68.0%
over_5.5 17.5% under_5.5 82.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.4% under_1.5 46.6% over_2.5 26.6%
under_2.5 73.4%
team_away
over_1.5 58.0% under_1.5 42.0% over_2.5 31.0%
under_2.5 69.0%
most
home 36.1% draw 21.4% away 42.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.6% away_+1.5 81.4% home_-0.5 36.1%
away_+0.5 63.9% home_+0.5 57.5% away_-0.5 42.5%
home_+1.5 76.6% away_-1.5 23.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 61.7% under_20.5 38.3% over_22.5 46.1%
under_22.5 53.9% over_24.5 31.5% under_24.5 68.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 70.2% under_9.5 29.8% over_11.5 48.8%
under_11.5 51.2% over_13.5 29.0% under_13.5 71.0%
team_away
over_9.5 60.1% under_9.5 39.9% over_11.5 37.7%
under_11.5 62.3% over_13.5 19.9% under_13.5 80.1%
most
home 54.0% draw 7.7% away 38.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.1% away_+3.5 68.9% home_-0.5 54.0%
away_+0.5 46.0% home_+2.5 75.6% away_-2.5 24.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.6% no 87.4%
home
yes 9.1% no 90.9%
away
yes 3.8% no 96.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Birmingham predictions · Southampton predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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