Volos NFC vs Olympiakos prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

Super League Greece

Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Correct Score

2026-09-05 · 17:00
Correct Score0-1Most likely · 15.3%

Result

Volos NFC 1-1 Olympiakos

Final score 1-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 11.7%.

Best predictionMost likely · 15.3% · 0-1No single outcome dominates, read the distribution. Calibrated, not a tip.
ConvictionOpen

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Most likely · 15.3% at 0-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Volos NFC have averaged 0.6 scored and 2.2 conceded, Olympiakos 1.0 and 0.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 41.0% for over 2.5 and 68.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Correct Score

Most likely0-1 15.3%
Scoreline Probability
0-1 15.3%
0-2 12.9%
1-1 11.7%
0-0 10.4%
1-2 9.0%
0-3 6.9%
1-0 6.3%
1-3 4.9%

Score probability grid

Volos NFC \ Olympiakos 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10% 15% 13% 7% 3% 1%
1 6% 12% 9% 5% 2% 1%
2 2% 4% 3% 2% 1% ·
3 1% 1% 1% · · ·
4 · · · · · ·
5 · · · · · ·

Rows = Volos NFC goals, columns = Olympiakos. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 15.3%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.

Goals distribution

The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.

10.4%

0

21.6%

1

27.0%

2

20.5%

3

11.9%

4

8.0%

5+

In-depth analysis

58.8%Favoured: Olympiakos
41.1%Both Teams to Score
41.0%Over 2.5 goals

Looking at totals, the model sees 41.0% for three or more goals and 68.0% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Olympiakos favoured at 58.8%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 0-1 on Correct Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianReads a tighter, lower-scoring game from the 41.0% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutOlympiakos are the model’s pick on the result at 58.8%, game state shapes how this market plays out.

Form & head-to-head

Volos NFCLLLLD
OlympiakosDWDWW

Last 5 meetings: Volos NFC 0 · 0 draws · Olympiakos 5 · 2.2 goals/game.

FAQ

What was the score in Volos NFC vs Olympiakos?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos finished 1-1. The model's most likely scoreline was 0-1 at 15.3%; it gave the actual 1-1 a 11.7% chance.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0095Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
55,261Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

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Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.