Villarreal vs Betis prediction & probabilities (2026-09-14)

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Villarreal vs Betis: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

La Liga
Villarreal

WDDLL

Mon, 14 Sep 202620:00UK34°C · Clear
Betis

WWWLW

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

76%

Villarreal or draw

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedTrust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
VillarrealWin probability
55.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals82.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Villarreal or draw76.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Over 8.5 corners61.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Villarreal heavy favourites at 55% when Villarreal meet Betis in the La Liga on 14 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Villarreal than the market (50%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) Everything in the shot data points to goals, 60% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 60%. 3) The run in: Villarreal arrive W1 D2 L3, Betis W4 D0 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Villarreal, 1 draws and 2 for Betis, averaging 3.4 goals a game. Georges Mikautadze drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. The forecast adds a wrinkle: 34 degrees of heat. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Betis44.9%@ 2.23
Over 10.5 corners40.0%@ 2.50
Over 11.5 corners30.7%@ 3.26
Medium risk

Both teams to score60.5%@ 1.65
Over 2.5 goals60.4%@ 1.66
Over 9.5 corners50.3%@ 1.99
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.7%@ 9.34
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.29
2-0 correct score8.0%@ 12.53

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Villarreal

55.1%+4.7%

Draw

21.4%-2.0%

Betis

23.5%-2.7%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.582.4%

High probability

Over 2.560.4%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes60.5%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.3%

Good chance

Over 10.540.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersVillarreal55.8%Betis33.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.5%

Good chance

Over 26.539.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.2%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Villarreal14.3 taken12.8 faced
Betis14.7 taken15.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Villarreal (3 games)

6.0 / 8.7

Betis (4 games)

7.0 / 8.8

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.582.4%2.560.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.560.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Form & head-to-head

VillarrealWDDLL
BetisWWWLW

Last 5 meetings: Villarreal 2 · 1 draws · Betis 2 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-01-17Betis 2-0 Villarreal
2025-10-18Villarreal 2-2 Betis
2025-04-13Betis 1-2 Villarreal
2024-12-15Villarreal 1-2 Betis
2024-03-10Betis 2-3 Villarreal

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

VillarrealBetis
League position#17 of 20#4 of 20
Record W-D-L0-2-23-0-1
Current streakL2W1
Record, home vs away0-0-11-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.00 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 54%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Georges MikautadzeVillarreal · key player
To score30.5%

@ 3.28

1+ on target57.6%

@ 1.74

2+ shots57.0%

@ 1.75

Shots/90 3.21SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.61
Pablo GarcíaBetis · key player
To score8.4%

@ 11.90

1+ on target29.3%

@ 3.41

2+ shots24.8%

@ 4.03

Shots/90 3.47SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.32
Ayoze PérezVillarreal · in form
To score31.9%

@ 3.13

1+ on target53.0%

@ 1.89

2+ shots53.4%

@ 1.87

Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.6
AntonyBetis · in form
To score19.5%

@ 5.13

1+ on target63.1%

@ 1.58

2+ shots73.9%

@ 1.35

Shots/90 3.28SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.27
Gerard MorenoVillarreal · in form
To score28.5%

@ 3.51

1+ on target47.3%

@ 2.11

2+ shots46.5%

@ 2.15

Shots/90 2.67SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.57
Abdessamad EzzalzouliBetis · in form
To score18.5%

@ 5.41

1+ on target58.0%

@ 1.72

2+ shots64.3%

@ 1.56

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.26

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Villarreal win1.911.82
Draw4.004.67
Betis win3.604.25
Over 2.5 goals1.571.66
Under 2.5 goals2.382.53

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Villarreal win1.89
Draw4.29
Betis win4.20
Both teams to score1.65

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.65
Over 3.5 goals2.62
Over 4.5 goals4.84
Villarreal most1.89
Betis most4.20

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.57
Over 9.5 corners1.94
Over 10.5 corners2.51
Villarreal most1.79
Betis most2.98

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.25
Over 3.5 cards1.60
Over 4.5 cards2.29
Over 5.5 cards3.66
Villarreal most2.57
Betis most2.40

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.26
Over 7.5 SoT1.46
Over 8.5 SoT1.77
Over 9.5 SoT2.26
Villarreal most1.66
Betis most3.55

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.56
Over 24.5 shots1.94
Over 26.5 shots2.55
Over 28.5 shots3.55
Villarreal most1.62
Betis most3.09

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.40
Over 22.5 fouls1.74
Over 24.5 fouls2.30
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.0% Over 24.5 51.5% Over 26.5 39.2% Over 28.5 28.2%
Most: Villarreal 61.7% Most: Betis 32.4%
Villarreal Over 13.2 49.2% Betis Over 13.2 28.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 79.4% Over 7.5 68.6% Over 8.5 56.5% Over 9.5 44.2%
Most: Villarreal 60.3% Most: Betis 28.2%
Villarreal Over 4.2 59.5% Betis Over 4.2 35.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 80.0% Over 3.5 62.4% Over 4.5 43.6%
Most: Villarreal 38.9% Most: Betis 41.6%
Villarreal Over 1.8 62.2% Betis Over 1.8 64.0%

Villarreal: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Georges Mikautadze 3.21 1.44 0.61 57.6% 57.0% 30.5%
Ayoze Pérez 2.8 1.18 0.6 53.0% 53.4% 31.9%
Gerard Moreno 2.67 1.09 0.57 47.3% 46.5% 28.5%
Nicolas Pepe 2.41 1.07 0.31 53.4% 51.3% 19.8%
Ilias Akhomach 2.73 0.84 0.06 32.4% 36.4% 2.8%

Betis: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Pablo García 3.47 1.26 0.32 29.3% 24.8% 8.4%
Antony 3.28 1.24 0.27 63.1% 73.9% 19.5%
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli 2.78 1.1 0.26 58.0% 64.3% 18.5%
Isco 2.52 0.87 0.46 42.8% 48.1% 25.6%
Juan Camilo Hernández 3 0.84 0.36 52.4% 74.2% 27.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Villarreal clean sheet 29.2%
Betis clean sheet 14.9%
Villarreal win to nil 24.3%
Betis win to nil 10.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 52.9% draw 23.3% away 23.8%
double_chance
1X 76.2% 12 76.7% X2 47.1%
dnb
home 69.0% away 31.1%
btts
yes 60.5% no 39.5%
clean_sheet
home 29.5% away 14.9%
win_to_nil
home 24.6% away 10.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.2% home_by_2 16.3% home_by_3plus 14.5%
away_by_1 14.0% away_by_2 6.7% away_by_3plus 3.1%
correct_score
0-0 4.9% 0-1 4.8% 0-2 3.3%
0-3 1.3% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 7.9% 1-1 10.7% 1-2 6.2%
1-3 2.5% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.0% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 5.1% 3-1 6.2% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.5% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.4% 4-1 2.9% 4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 1.1% 5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.1% under_0.5 4.9% over_1.5 82.4%
under_1.5 17.6% over_2.5 60.5% under_2.5 39.6%
over_3.5 38.1% under_3.5 61.9% over_4.5 20.7%
under_4.5 79.4% over_5.5 9.7% under_5.5 90.3%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 85.1% under_0.5 14.9% over_1.5 56.8%
under_1.5 43.2% over_2.5 29.8% under_2.5 70.2%
team_away
over_0.5 70.5% under_0.5 29.5% over_1.5 34.5%
under_1.5 65.5% over_2.5 12.5% under_2.5 87.5%
most
home 52.9% draw 23.3% away 23.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 14.5% away_+2.5 85.5% home_-1.5 30.7%
away_+1.5 69.3% home_-0.5 52.9% away_+0.5 47.1%
home_+0.5 76.2% away_-0.5 23.8% home_+1.5 90.2%
away_-1.5 9.8% home_+2.5 96.9% away_-2.5 3.1%
total_exact
exact_0 4.9% exact_1 12.7% exact_2 22.0%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 17.5% exact_5 10.9%
exact_6 5.7% exact_7plus 4.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 51.3% draw 30.9% away 17.8%
total
over_0.5 82.9% under_0.5 17.1% over_1.5 52.7%
under_1.5 47.3% over_2.5 26.1% under_2.5 74.0%
btts
yes 30.4% no 69.6%
total_exact
exact_0 17.1% exact_1 30.2% exact_2 26.7%
exact_3 15.7% exact_4plus 10.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.2% draw 37.0% away 28.7%
total
over_0.5 77.1% under_0.5 22.9% over_1.5 43.4%
under_1.5 56.6% over_2.5 18.5% under_2.5 81.5%
btts
yes 27.1% no 72.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 41.8% H/D 6.9% H/A 2.6%
D/H 10.6% D/D 11.5% D/A 8.9%
A/H 1.6% A/D 3.5% A/A 12.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.0% under_7.5 25.0% over_8.5 63.7%
under_8.5 36.3% over_9.5 51.7% under_9.5 48.3%
over_10.5 39.9% under_10.5 60.1% over_11.5 29.3%
under_11.5 70.7% over_12.5 20.5% under_12.5 79.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.6% under_3.5 24.4% over_4.5 60.8%
under_4.5 39.2% over_5.5 45.6% under_5.5 54.4%
team_away
over_3.5 61.1% under_3.5 38.9% over_4.5 43.8%
under_4.5 56.2% over_5.5 28.9% under_5.5 71.1%
most
home 56.0% draw 10.5% away 33.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.3% away_+3.5 74.7% home_-1.5 45.1%
away_+1.5 54.9% home_-0.5 56.0% away_+0.5 44.0%
home_+0.5 66.5% away_-0.5 33.6% home_+1.5 75.8%
away_-1.5 24.2% home_+3.5 89.3% away_-3.5 10.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.0% under_22.5 36.0% over_24.5 51.5%
under_24.5 48.5% over_26.5 39.2% under_26.5 60.8%
over_28.5 28.2% under_28.5 71.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.8% under_10.5 26.2% over_12.5 57.6%
under_12.5 42.4% over_14.5 41.1% under_14.5 58.9%
team_away
over_10.5 54.6% under_10.5 45.4% over_12.5 36.4%
under_12.5 63.6% over_14.5 21.8% under_14.5 78.2%
most
home 61.7% draw 5.9% away 32.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.7% away_+4.5 63.3% home_-2.5 49.1%
away_+2.5 50.9% home_-0.5 61.7% away_+0.5 38.3%
home_+0.5 67.6% away_-0.5 32.4% home_+2.5 78.1%
away_-2.5 21.9% home_+4.5 86.3% away_-4.5 13.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 79.4% under_6.5 20.6% over_7.5 68.6%
under_7.5 31.4% over_8.5 56.5% under_8.5 43.5%
over_9.5 44.3% under_9.5 55.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.2% under_3.5 24.8% over_4.5 59.5%
under_4.5 40.5% over_5.5 43.4% under_5.5 56.6%
team_away
over_3.5 54.2% under_3.5 45.8% over_4.5 35.9%
under_4.5 64.1% over_5.5 21.5% under_5.5 78.5%
most
home 60.3% draw 11.5% away 28.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 35.7% away_+2.5 64.3% home_-0.5 60.3%
away_+0.5 39.7% home_+0.5 71.9% away_-0.5 28.2%
home_+2.5 88.7% away_-2.5 11.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 80.0% under_2.5 20.0% over_3.5 62.4%
under_3.5 37.6% over_4.5 43.6% under_4.5 56.4%
over_5.5 27.3% under_5.5 72.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.2% under_1.5 37.9% over_2.5 35.8%
under_2.5 64.2%
team_away
over_1.5 64.0% under_1.5 36.0% over_2.5 37.8%
under_2.5 62.2%
most
home 38.9% draw 19.5% away 41.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.1% away_+1.5 77.9% home_-0.5 38.9%
away_+0.5 61.1% home_+0.5 58.4% away_-0.5 41.7%
home_+1.5 75.7% away_-1.5 24.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 71.2% under_20.5 28.8% over_22.5 57.6%
under_22.5 42.4% over_24.5 43.5% under_24.5 56.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 72.8% under_9.5 27.2% over_11.5 53.4%
under_11.5 46.6% over_13.5 34.4% under_13.5 65.6%
team_away
over_9.5 69.7% under_9.5 30.3% over_11.5 49.6%
under_11.5 50.4% over_13.5 30.9% under_13.5 69.2%
most
home 49.1% draw 7.1% away 43.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.8% away_+3.5 71.2% home_-0.5 49.1%
away_+0.5 50.9% home_+2.5 69.7% away_-2.5 30.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.7% no 88.3%
home
yes 6.5% no 93.5%
away
yes 5.6% no 94.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Villarreal predictions · Betis predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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