Result

The match produced 1.19 xG for Vallecano and 0.63 xG for Santander, against a final score of 3-2. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.

Expected Goals (xG)

1.44Vallecano xG created/game

1.75Vallecano xG conceded/game

1.90Santander xG created/game

0.94Santander xG conceded/game

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

Vallecano have created 1.44 xG and scored 1.50 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Santander have created 1.90 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 3, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

59.3%Favoured: Vallecano

50.7%Both Teams to Score

51.0%Over 2.5 goals

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Match outlook

The model leans Vallecano to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

More La Liga, Expected Goals (xG)

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