Segunda División
Valladolid vs 
Oviedo Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 13.4% at 1-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Valladolid have averaged 0.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, Oviedo 0.6 and 0.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 40.7% for over 2.5 and 67.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.4% |
| 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 0-1 | 8.3% |
| 1-2 | 5.7% |
| 3-0 | 4.7% |
Score probability grid
| Valladolid \ Oviedo | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | 6% | 2% | · | · |
| 2 | 10% | 9% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Valladolid goals, columns = Oviedo. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13.4%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
45.5%Both Teams to Score40.7%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 40.7% for three or more goals and 67.8% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Valladolid favoured at 48.4%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Valladolid 4 · 0 draws · Oviedo 1 · 2.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Valladolid vs Oviedo?
The model's most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Oviedo is 1-0 at 13.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Segunda División, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.